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Indianapolis 500 2023 Predictions, Picks & Odds to Win
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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On Sunday, May 28, the 107th edition of the Indianapolis 500, one of the most famous events in all of sports, will take place at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Last year, Chip Ganassi Racing’s Marcus Ericsson, who started fifth on the grid, took the win, 1.79 seconds ahead of Pato O’Ward. Scott Dixon, the 2008 winner and Ericsson’s teammate, started on pole and led the most laps (95), but his chances for a win were ended late in the race by a penalty for exceeding the pit late speed limit.
On Sunday, Ericsson will aim to become the first driver to win the Indy 500 in back-to-back years since Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002, while Dixon will attempt to tie Juan Pablo Montoya (2000 and 2015) for the biggest gap between wins.
Before we take a look at odds for the race, let’s take a look at the starting grid.
Indianapolis 500 2023 Starting Grid
- Alex Palou
- Rinus VeeKay
- Felix Rosenqvist
- Santino Ferrucci
- Pato O’Ward
- Scott Dixon
- Alexander Rossi
- Takuma Sato
- Tony Kanaan
- Marcus Ericsson
- Benjamin Pedersen
- Will Power
- Ed Carpenter
- Scott McLaughlin
- Kyle Kirkwood
- Conor Daly
- Josef Newgarden
- Ryan Hunter-Reay
- Romain Grosjean
- Helio Castroneves
- Colton Herta
- Simon Pagenaud
- David Malukas
- Marco Andretti
- Devlin DeFrancesco
- Agustin Canapino
- Callum Ilott
- RC Enerson
- Katherine Legge
- Christian Lundgaard
- Sting Ray Robb
- Jack Harvey
- Graham Rahal
Graham Rahal was originally the odd man out of the starting grid after failing to qualify for the race. But Stefan Wilson, who qualified 25th, was injured in post-qualifying practice and was replaced by Rahal, who will start in the final spot on the grid as a result.
With race day less than 48 hours away, who are the favorites to reach Victory Lane on Sunday? Let’s take a look at this year’s Indy 500 odds.
Odds to Win the 2023 Indianapolis 500
- Alex Palou +500
- Pato O’Ward +600
- Scott Dixon +800
- Alexander Rossi +1000
- Rinus VeeKay +1000
- Takuma Sato +1000
- Marcus Ericsson +1100 – 2022 Indy 500 winner
- Josef Newgarden +1400
- Felix Rosenqvist +1400
- Santino Ferrucci +1500
- Scott McLaughlin +1600
- Will Power +1600
- Tony Kanaan +1700
- Colton Herta +2500
- Kyle Kirkwood +2500
- Conor Daly +3000
- Helio Castroneves +4000
- Romain Grosjean +5000
- Ed Carpenter +5000
- David Malukas +6000
- Ryan Hunter-Reay +6000
- Graham Rahal +6500
- Simon Pagenaud +7500
- Marco Andretti +7500
- Benjamin Pedersen +10000
- Christian Lundgaard +10000
- Jack Harvey +25000
- Callum Ilott +30000
- Devlin DeFrancesco +40000
- Sting Ray Robb +50000
- Agustin Canapino +50000
- RC Enerson +100000
- Katherine Legge +100000
2023 Indy 500 Prediction and Picks
With how much drama can occur over the course of 200 laps, you can’t count out drivers who don’t star at or near the front of the grid. However, the last six winners have all started on the first three rows.
The last driver to win from outside the top 15 was Ryan Hunter-Reay, who started 19th when he won in 2014. The late, great Dan Wheldon was the last driver to win from outside the top 20 when he took his first Indy 500 win in 2005.
Here are the starting positions for each of the last ten Indy 500 winners:
- 2013: Tony Kanaan (started 12th)
- 2014: Ryan Hunter-Reay (19th)
- 2015: Juan Pablo Montoya (15th)
- 2016: Alexander Rossi (11th)
- 2017: Takuma Sato (fourth)
- 2018: Will Power (third)
- 2019: Simon Pagenaud (polesitter)
- 2020: Takuma Sato (third)
- 2021: Helio Castroneves (eighth)
- 2022: Marcus Ericsson (fifth)
With recent results in mind, I’m not looking outside the first few rows for my Indianapolis 500 winner prediction and picks.
Palou is on pole and is the current IndyCar Series points leader following a win at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis two weeks ago.
But the Indy polesitter has not had much good fortune in recent years. Since Dixon and Castroneves won from the pole in consecutive years in 2008 and 2009, Pagenaud’s 2019 win is the only one by a polesitter. And in the past three years, the polesitter finished 13th, 17th, and 21st.
If you cast a look over the list of recent race winners, you will see a number of former Formula One drivers–Montoya in 2015, Rossi in 2016 (as the only Indianapolis 500 rookie to win since Castroneves in 2001), Sato in 2017 and 2020, and Ericsson last year–or drivers with several seasons of IndyCar Series experience.
In fact, Buddy Rice, the 2004 winner, is the most recent winner who wasn’t either a former Formula 1 driver or in at least their fourth year in CART/Champ Car/the IndyCar Series. The year Rice won was his first full season in the IndyCar Series after taking part in five races in 2002 and 13 of 16 in 2003.
There are six former Indy 500 winners starting in the first four rows, and I’m not looking beyond that group, as well as O’Ward and Ferrucci.
O’Ward is the only driver who has finished in the top six in each of the last three editions of the Indy 500, while Ferrucci has four consecutive top-ten finishes (seventh, fourth, sixth, and tenth). Notably, Ferrucci’s four straight top-10s have come from 23rd, 19th, 23rd, and 15th.
In a race like this, I don’t like to focus on only one driver. With that in mind, I’m backing the second-row trio of Ferrucci, O’Ward, and Dixon, who has set great practice times in addition to qualifying close to the front.
All three of those drivers are good value to back for the win, as well as a top-five finish if you are betting at a book that offers that option.
Where to Bet on the Indy 500
Here are some sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s Indy 500.
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