2023 TOUR Championship Predictions & Picks: Will Scheffler Claim First FedEx Cup Crown?

Thanks to a stunning Sunday showing by Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler missed out on a big check at the BMW Championship. But entering this week’s TOUR Championship, the world number one is in a strong position for a big payday in Atlanta.

Entering the final round of the BMW Championship, Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick were both at -11 and tied for the lead.

They both shot 4-under 66 on Sunday to wrap up the tournament at -15, but they and everyone else were outshined by Viktor Hovland. Hovland shot 9-under 61 to finish at -17 and win by two strokes.

Still, Scheffler accumulated enough points with his performance at Olympia Fields to remain atop the FedEx Cup points standings entering the TOUR Championship.

That is highly valuable given the format of this week’s tournament at East Lake. Each of the 30 players in the field has a starting score, and first place in the FedEx Cup standings is good for a starting score of -10 and a two-stroke lead over the next person in line.

2023 TOUR Championship Field and Starting Strokes

• 1. Scottie Scheffler -10
• 2. Viktor Hovland -8
• 3. Rory McIlroy -7
• 4. Jon Rahm -6
• 5. Lucas Glover -5
• 6. Max Homa -4
• 7. Patrick Cantlay -4
• 8. Brian Harman -4
• 9. Wyndham Clark -4
• 10. Matt Fitzpatrick -4

The starting strokes for the rest of the field are as follows:

• -3 (11 to 15): Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
• -2 (16 to 20): Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
• -1 (21 to 25): Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
• Even (26 to 30): Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

Scheffler’s advantage is valuable because the winner of the TOUR Championship is crowned the FedEx Cup champion.

Scheffler was in the same position last year, but a 3-over 73 in the final round saw him finish a shot behind Rory McIlroy, who captured his third FedEx Cup title after starting the tournament seventh and six strokes behind Scheffler.

Will Scheffler make his advantage count this time around? Or will we see McIlroy win at East Lake for a second straight year and become a four-time FedEx Cup champion?

Odds to Win the 2023 TOUR Championship

• Scottie Scheffler +150
• Rory McIlroy +330
• Viktor Hovland +450
• Jon Rahm +750
• Patrick Cantlay +1600
• Max Homa +2500
• Xander Schauffele +3000
• Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
• Brian Harman +3500
• Lucas Glover +4000
• Wyndham Clark +4500
• Tommy Fleetwood +4500
• Rickie Fowler +6000
• Russell Henley +7500
• Sungjae Im +11000
• Tom Kim +11000
• Collin Morikawa +12500
• Keegan Bradley +12500
• Corey Conners +13000
• Tony Finau +15000
• Jordan Spieth +18000
• Tyrrell Hatton +18000
• Si Woo Kim +18000
• Jason Day +25000
• Sam Burns +30000
• Taylor Moore +40000
• Emiliano Grillo +50000

TOUR Championship Predictions and Picks

Tournament Winner Pick: Rory McIlroy (+330)

Scheffler is the favorite and has an important advantage, but that ultimately didn’t make a difference last year. Nor did it matter in 2016 and 2019, the other two years McIlroy won the TOUR Championship and the FedEx Cup title.

In 2019, the first year of the starting strokes format, McIlroy entered the TOUR Championship with a starting score of -5, five shots behind Justin Thomas. He shot a 13-under 267–a number that would have won the tournament in a normal format–to finish at -18, four shots ahead of Xander Schauffele.

Last year, McIlroy had a starting score of -4, six strokes behind Scheffler, then shot a 17-under 263 to finish -21, a stroke ahead of Scheffler and Sungjae Im.

In 2016, prior to the current format, McIlroy entered the TOUR Championship sixth in the points standings and all but needing to win to win the FedEx Cup. He did just that, landing in a playoff with a final round 6-under 64, then defeating Kevin Chappell and Ryan Moore in the playoff to win his first FedEx Cup title.

So, starting with a deficit won’t faze McIlroy at all. That history of stepping up from disadvantageous positions makes him a strong pick, especially when he will start from a better position than he did in both 2019 and 2022.

Other Tournament Picks

Xander Schauffele to finish in the top 5 (+250)

Schauffele knows what it’s like to get it done at East Lake, having won the TOUR Championship and the FedEx Cup title with it in 2017.

He has also finished second twice, finishing alone in second in 2019 and tied with Justin Thomas the following year, when Dustin Johnson won the big prize.

Schauffele hasn’t had a terrific 2023 season and hasn’t finished in the top five since coming in second at the Wells Fargo Championship in May.

But he finished tied for eighth at the BMW Championship, his best result since then. Look for him to wrap up the FedEx Cup playoffs with a strong performance in Atlanta.

Sungjae Im to finish in the top 10 (+170)

This is unbelievable value for multiple reasons.

After finishing tied for sixth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship two weeks ago, he finished seventh at the BMW Championship.

So, he is in good form ahead of the tournament. And speaking of the tournament, he very nearly won it last year after starting with the same score as McIlroy.

In the end, shooting +3 on the 14th in the final two rounds and failing to birdie the par-5 18th on either Saturday or Sunday saw him miss out on what would have been the biggest win of his career.

Im may well be too far behind to go one better than he did last year, but he will make a big leap into the top ten.

Russell Henley to finish in the top 10 (+140)

This will be Henley’s first TOUR Championship appearance since 2017, when he finished third, two strokes behind Schauffele.

He won’t need to finish that high for this bet to cash, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he does.

Entering the TOUR Championship, Henley has three consecutive top-ten finishes. He tied for second at the Wyndham Championship, tied for sixth at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and tied for eighth at the BMW Championship.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

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• BetOnline
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You may already have an account at those online sportsbooks, but if you don’t, we suggest reading our reviews and checking them out for yourself to see if they are a good option for your preferences as a sports bettor.