Kentucky Derby 2024 Futures: Odds, Analysis

Kentucky Derby Odds Updated 4/24/2024

The Kentucky Derby is just over a week away. With the field firmly taking shape, Betting News has your first look at the probable field and their current future odds.

In this comprehensive guide, we delve into the odds and prospects of some intriguing contenders, each with the potential to make a splash on the iconic Churchill Downs track.

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The 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders

The horses and odds are currently being offered on BetOnline. It is recommend that players shop around each of the racebooks to find the best price on their fancied horse.

Fierceness (+300)

• Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 110
• Running Style: Early Speed
• Sire: City of Light
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Outlook: Fierceness has displayed remarkable talent in his career, with three impressive wins out of five starts. His dominant victories in prestigious races like the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Curlin Florida Derby make him a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby. However, concerns linger regarding his inconsistency, as seen in his defeats in the Champagne Stakes and the Holy Bull Stakes. If he can maintain his peak form and secure a favorable position in the race, he stands a strong chance of emerging victorious under the guidance of experienced jockey John Velazquez.

Sierra Leone (+300)

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Record: 4 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 107
• Sire: Gun Runner
• Run Style: Closer
• Outlook: Sierra Leone, the leading Kentucky Derby points earner for 2024, should vie for post-time favoritism with Fierceness. This well-bred, expensive colt has a running style that’s in contrast to his main Derby rival. He’ll need a solid early pace and a clean trip to unleash his deep closing kick. With a nearly perfect race record and competitive speed figures, Sierra Leone has the potential to surge into contention as the field turns for home and overcome any tiring runners blocking his momentum to win the Kentucky Derby.

Catching Freedom (+1200)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 98
• Sire: Constitution
• Running style: Closer
• Outlook: Catching Freedom, somewhat under the radar compared to favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone, emerges as a solid middle-tier contender for Derby 150. While his speed figures might fall short of the top contenders, he possesses the potential to surprise with a forward move in his final Derby prep. In the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, he showcased his rallying ability, making a last-to-first move to triumph by a length. With previous stakes wins under his belt and adept handling, Catching Freedom aims to capitalize on a fast pace to unleash his rally in the final stretch. If he secures a clear trip and finds running room, expect him to make his presence felt in the closing stages of the race.

Forever Young (+1000)

• Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
• Record: 5 starts – 5 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
• Kentucky Derby points: 100
• Pedigree: Real Steel
• Running style: Stalker/Closer
• Outlook: Forever Young’s journey into Derby 150 is marked by his undefeated record of 5 wins in as many starts, including victories in prestigious races like the Boutique Group Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby. Despite the historical challenges faced by horses from the UAE Derby, Forever Young’s impressive accomplishments cannot be overlooked. His win in the UAE Derby, where he finished powerfully despite racing wide, demonstrates his potential to contend on the Derby stage. However, transitioning from the Middle East to Churchill Downs presents a new challenge, and observers will closely monitor his gallops to gauge his adaptability to the track. As a buzz horse from Dubai, Forever Young enters the Derby with high regard, but he’ll need to elevate his performance to compete against the heightened level of competition in the Kentucky Derby. With trainer Yoshito Yahagi’s success in international races, Forever Young’s connections bring optimism to their Derby debut.

Just a Touch (+1600)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 3 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 105
• Pedigree: Justify
• Running style: Stalker
• Outlook: Just a Touch enters the Kentucky Derby as a lightly raced contender with only three starts under his belt, reminiscent of his sire Justify’s path to the Triple Crown in 2018. Despite his limited experience, Just a Touch has shown promise with a win in a six-furlong sprint and consecutive runner-up finishes in Derby preps. His performance in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, where he secured second place ahead of several competitors, highlights his potential. With room for improvement and untapped potential, Just a Touch presents a viable option for a top-three finish in the Derby. Jockey Florent Geroux, familiar with the colt’s racing style, will position him prominently in the early stages of the race, setting the stage for a competitive bid around the far turn.

Dornoch (+1800)

• Trainer: Danny Gargan
• Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 102
• Pedigree: Good Magic
• Running style: Pacesetter/Press the pace
• Outlook: Dornoch emerged as a leading Kentucky Derby contender after closing out 2023 with impressive wins, including a victory in the Remsen Stakes. Despite a diminished status following a fourth-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Dornoch retains potential for a bounce-back effort in the Derby, particularly if he reverts to his forwardly placed running style. With consistently competitive speed figures and a pedigree suited for the classic distance, Dornoch remains a contender for a top finish in the Derby. Jockey Luis Saez, experienced in Derby competition, will guide Dornoch in his bid for success in the race.

Stronghold (+2000)

• Trainer: Phil D’Amato
• Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 99
• Sire: Ghostzapper
• Running style: Stalker
• Outlook: Stronghold, the sole California-based contender for Kentucky Derby 150, arrives with an impressive record, having never finished worse than second in six career starts. His recent gritty win in the Santa Anita Derby showcased his determination and ability to outfinish his rivals in a sustained stretch duel. Despite facing a higher level of competition in the Kentucky Derby, Stronghold’s consistency and adaptable running style make him a contender. Jockey Antonio Fresu, aboard for his past four starts, knows how to position Stronghold effectively, whether pressing the early pace or conserving energy from a stalking spot. Expect Stronghold to be among the top contenders as they navigate the Churchill Downs backstretch, ready to unleash his best in the stretch run.

Resilience (+2000)

• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 103
• Sire: Into Mischief
• Running style: Stalker
• Outlook: Resilience has shown steady improvement in early 2024, indicating a chance to perform well in the Kentucky Derby if he maintains this trajectory. His recent 2 ¼-length victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes showcased his ability to command the race, demonstrating a well-timed move entering the stretch. Prior to this win, Resilience finished a solid fourth in the competitive Risen Star Stakes, proving his ability to contend against top competition. With one of the best pedigrees for handling the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance and a forwardly placed running style, Resilience holds an advantage. Although he gets a new jockey for the Derby in Junior Alvarado, his strong form and adaptability make him a contender for a top finish.

Endlessly (+2000)

• Trainer: Michael McCarthy
• Record: 6 starts – 5 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 103
• Sire: Oscar Performance
• Running style: Stalker/Closer
• Outlook: As of this writing, a final decision regarding Endlessly’s participation in the Kentucky Derby is pending. Despite his notable career achievements, all of his victories have been on turf or all-weather surfaces. A son of turf standout Oscar Performance, Endlessly boasts an impressive record of four stakes wins in six starts, with his only defeat coming against top 2-year-old turf horses in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. This year, he has transitioned to stakes on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface, winning both the El Camino Real Derby and the Jeff Ruby Steaks convincingly. With recent workouts on the Churchill Downs dirt track, a decision on his Derby start is imminent. If he opts for the Derby, Endlessly will rely on his stalker/closer style under jockey Umberto Rispoli, who has guided him to victory in both of his starts this year. His performance on dirt for the first time will be a critical factor in determining his impact on the race.

Track Phantom (+2000)

• Trainer: Steve Asmussen
• Record: 7 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 100
• Sire: Quality Road
• Running style: Pacesetter
• Outlook: Track Phantom enters the Kentucky Derby as a confirmed pacesetter, likely to influence the race’s early tempo in a field lacking significant early speed. Despite not being favored for victory, his determination and consistent performances make him a noteworthy contender. With notable wins at Churchill Downs and competitive showings in prestigious Derby prep races, including the Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes, Track Phantom has demonstrated his ability to contend against strong competition. While his pedigree and recent performances suggest that winning the 1 ¼-mile Derby distance could pose a challenge, his competitive spirit and pace-setting capabilities could see him leading the field into the homestretch under the guidance of jockey Joel Rosario. Additionally, the addition of blinkers for the Kentucky Derby could enhance his focus and sharpness from the starting gate.

Encino (+3300)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Record: 4 starts – 3 wins – 1 second
• Top Speed Figure: 108
• Sire: Nyquist
• Running Style: Early Speed
• Outlook: Encino, owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox, enters the Kentucky Derby picture with a strong record, boasting three wins in four starts. His recent victory in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes showcased his adaptability to dirt tracks, a favorable sign for his potential in the Derby. While his connections have yet to confirm his Derby start, Encino’s pedigree, including being a half-sibling to 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, suggests he has the potential to excel at the classic distance. If he does compete, Encino is expected to provide early pressure to frontrunners, enhancing the pace dynamics of the race. However, the short rest between races poses a challenge for this still-developing colt, raising questions about his ability to replicate his recent success. With an experienced trainer in Brad Cox and the backing of Godolphin, Encino remains a contender worth watching in the Kentucky Derby.

Honor Marie (+3500)

• Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
• Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 98
• Sire: Honor Code
• Running style: Closer
• Outlook: Honor Marie emerges as a compelling longshot prospect for the Kentucky Derby, showcasing promise despite falling slightly below the top contenders in speed figures. With a notable affinity for Churchill Downs’ dirt track, he has demonstrated his prowess with a debut win at the iconic venue and a subsequent victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His 3-year-old campaign began with a commendable fifth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes, followed by a spirited runner-up effort in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Notably, Honor Marie shares a come-from-behind running style with winners of prestigious races, indicating his potential for a strong performance if provided with a favorable trip behind a solid early pace. The classic 1 ¼-mile distance should suit his pedigree, offering further encouragement for his prospects. Jockey Ben Curtis, making his Derby debut, will partner with Honor Marie under the guidance of trainer Whit Beckman, adding an element of anticipation to their campaign. With the right conditions and a bit of luck, Honor Marie could surprise the field and contend for victory on the grand stage of the Kentucky Derby.

Just Steel (+5000)

• Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
• Record: 11 starts – 2 wins – 4 seconds – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 112
• Sire: Justify
• Running style: Stalker
• Outlook: Just Steel brings a wealth of experience to the Kentucky Derby, guided by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. With 11 starts under his belt, including notable runs against top competition, he enters the Derby arena as a seasoned contender. Despite facing setbacks earlier in the season, Just Steel showcased his potential in the Arkansas Derby, finishing a strong second and displaying significant improvement. His bloodlines, stemming from Triple Crown winner Justify, suggest the ability to handle the Derby’s demanding distance. While he may not be considered a frontrunner for victory, Just Steel’s consistent form positions him as a viable option for exotic wagers, such as exactas and trifectas. Jockey Keith Asmussen, in his debut Derby appearance, will partner with Just Steel, aiming to capitalize on the colt’s proven capabilities and Lukas’s renowned expertise.

Domestic Product (+5000)

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second
• Top Speed Figure: 92
• Sire: Practical Joke
• Running Style: Stalker
• Outlook: Domestic Product, sired by Practical Joke, enters the Kentucky Derby field with a record showing promise but lacking in standout performances. With wins under his belt and a competitive spirit, he’s proven adept at navigating slower-paced races, as seen in his recent victory at the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. With the seasoned guidance of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Domestic Product remains a dark horse worth considering for those seeking longshot opportunities.

Catalytic (+5000)

• Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
• Record: 3 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds
• Top Speed Figure: 90
• Sire: Catalina Cruiser
• Running Style: Stalker
• Outlook: Catalytic surprised with a second-place finish in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa on March 30, securing a spot in the Kentucky Derby lineup. He’s yet to face top-tier competition and will need to significantly improve his speed figures to contend. Expect him to play a role in the early pace setup, potentially influencing the race’s dynamics.

Grand Mo the First (+5000)

• Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr.
• Record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 4 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 91
• Sire: Uncle Mo
• Running Style: Stalker
• Outlook: Grand Mo the First secured his spot in the Kentucky Derby field after the connections of another contender opted out of the race. Despite earning enough qualifying points, his recent performances, including a distant third-place finish in the Curlin Florida Derby, raise doubts about his ability to contend with the top Derby contenders. While he has shown consistency in hitting the board, his speed figures and career accomplishments suggest he may struggle against this competitive field. With a running style that positions him as a stalker, Grand Mo the First will need a significant pace meltdown to have any chance of making an impact in the later stages of the race.

West Saratoga (+6600)

• Trainer: Larry Demeritte
• Record: 10 starts – 2 wins – 5 seconds – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 93
• Sire: Exaggerator
• Running style: Stalker
• Outlook: West Saratoga emerges as a sentimental favorite in the Kentucky Derby, representing connections that evoke admiration and support from racing enthusiasts. Trainer Larry Demeritte, leads the charge with owner Harry Veruchi, both making their debut in the prestigious race. Despite his humble beginnings and low auction price, West Saratoga has proven his worth with commendable performances, including a win in the Iroquois Stakes and notable finishes in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Jeff Ruby Steaks. However, his chances in the Derby are tempered by the need for a significant improvement in speed figures, which may be challenging based on his established performance plateau.

Mystik Dan (+7500)

• Trainer: Ken McPeek
• Record: 6 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 110
• Sire: Goldencents
• Running Style: Stalker/Closer
• Outlook: Mystik Dan, with notable successes in muddy conditions, presents an outside chance for victory in the Kentucky Derby. His impressive win in the Southwest Stakes showcased his ability to thrive in adverse weather, an asset that could prove advantageous if conditions are wet on race day. Although less impressive in his subsequent races, he has shown promise, especially at shorter distances. With a strong training regimen leading up to the Derby and the potential for rain, Mystik Dan may surprise as a strong contender. Trainer Ken McPeek, aiming for his first Derby win, and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., in his fifth Derby appearance, provide experienced guidance for this dark horse.

Society Man (+10000)

• Trainer: Danny Gargan
• Record: 5 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
• Top Speed Figure: 99
• Sire: Good Magic
• Running Style: Closer
• Outlook: Society Man surprised many with a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, but enters the Kentucky Derby as a significant longshot. Despite his odds, his recent improvements in speed figures suggest he could be a late closer, potentially securing a top-10 finish. Jockey Frankie Dettori, known for his international success, will guide him, marking Dettori’s second Kentucky Derby appearance. Trainer Danny Gargan seeks his first Derby win with Society Man and Dornoch.

T O Password (+10000)

• Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
• Record: 2 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: Unavailable
• Sire: Copano Rickey
• Running Style: Pacesetter
• Outlook: T O Password, a Japan Road to Kentucky Derby invitee, enters the Derby field with limited racing experience but a perfect record of two wins in his home country. However, those victories came at a competition level significantly lower than the U.S. Derby prep races. His win in the Fukuryu Stakes was hard-fought and in a slow time, raising concerns about his ability to compete at the highest level. With a running style that positions him as a pacesetter, T O Password may find himself challenged by the early pace set by other contenders, particularly Track Phantom. Despite his outsider status, jockey Kazushi Kimura brings international experience to the table, having competed successfully in North America. For both his owner and trainer, this will mark their first appearance in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Also Eligible

Rich Strike forced everyone to pay attention to the AEs when he pulled a shocking upset in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The horse did not draw into the race until the 11th hour when Ethereal Road was a late scratch. The ripple from that scratch resulted in one of the greatest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.

Epic Ride (+5000)

• Trainer: John Ennis
• Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
• Top  Speed Figure: 100
• Sire: Blame
• Running Style: Stalker
• Outlook: His Derby points were earned with a second-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes and a third-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. With the majority of his career races on all-weather tracks, his transition to dirt has shown promise but remains unconfirmed by his connections. Epic Ride’s pedigree suggests a preference for turf/all-weather racing, casting doubt on his ability to contend against the Derby field. However, his competitive speed figures on both dirt and synthetic surfaces keep him in the conversation for a minor award should he make the race. For trainer John Ennis and owner Welch Racing, this marks their debut appearance in the Kentucky Derby.

Uncle Heavy (Unlisted)

• Trainer: Robert Reid Jr.
• Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 95
• Sire: Social Inclusion
• Running Style: Closer
• Outlook: Despite winning three of his five starts, his latest outing in the Wood Memorial Stakes saw him finish a distant fifth, casting doubt on his Derby prospects. His victory in the Withers Stakes showcased his late-closing ability, but replicating that performance and overcoming the wide draw in the Wood Memorial will be challenging. Uncle Heavy’s lack of timed workouts since the Wood Memorial adds further uncertainty to his Derby readiness. Should he make the race, it would mark the first Derby appearance for trainer Butch Reid and co-owner LC Racing.

Seize the Grey (Unlisted)

• Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
• Record: 8 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 3 thirds
• Top Speed Figure: 93
• Sire: Arrogate
• Running Style: Stalker/Closer
• Outlook: Despite a solid career under Lukas, his performances have yet to match those of the main Derby contenders. Seize the Grey earned Derby points with a fourth-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes and a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. However, his recent outing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes saw him finish seventh, signaling a challenging road ahead if he draws into the Derby. Lukas, a four-time Derby-winning trainer, brings experience to the table, but Seize the Grey’s lack of standout performances suggests he’ll be a longshot if he makes the field.

Bet the Also Eligibles

BetOnline is still offering the chance to take action on other horses upon request. Uncle Heavy and Seize the Grey would both need to be booked by this method.

More Kentucky Derby Coverage

Follow all the Kentucky Derby  action on Betting News. Along with our handicapping tools which will be available for all of the key preps, we will continue to provide in depth analysis of the Oaks and Derby cards as well as trends from the last decade.