Aqueduct Saturday (1/28): Toboggan Stakes Analysis

The Saturday card from Aqueduct features the Toboggan. On paper the race appears to be a wide open race. Players should be able to find value at the wagering windows.

Aqueduct- Race 1

Post: 12:10 PM ET; $80k Maiden Special Weight going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 TREATY OBLIGATION (3-1) debuts here and gets the top selection. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Brown and Davis.
• #5 REGISTER (2-1) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #3 PAROS (15-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #1 GOTTA CONNECT (5-1) debuts here and isn't without hope. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Pletcher and Lezcano.

Selections: 7 – 5 – 3 – 1

Aqueduct- Race 2

Post: 12:40 PM ET; $37k Claiming going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #2 COUSIN ANDREW (3-2) is the top pick. He shouldn't have trouble with the 7 furlong distance. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #1 TOP OF THE MINT (5-2) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #5 DATESFREEDOM (12-1) is a price horse and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He comes into the race in really good form.
• #3 CHARGER (7-2) is one that will probably be overvalued. He’s not impossible, but probably not much value.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 5 – 3

Aqueduct- Race 3

Post: 1:10 PM ET; $55k Starter Allowance going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 8

• #2 GUT FEELING (7-5) looks best here. He shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/8 mile distance. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
• #4 CURBSTONE (2-1) should be competitive in this spot. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #6 HIGHER QUALITY (6-1) has races good enough to beat this group. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #1 SKYLANDER (8-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He could get the right setup in this race. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Baker and Lezcano.

Selections: 2 – 4 – 6 – 1

Aqueduct- Race 4

Post: 1:41 PM ET; $43k Maiden Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #8 BUSTIN HOT (5-2) gets the top selection. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #3 KARA PARA (6-1) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one looks to be the class of the field.
• #7 FLAT OUT PHYLLY (6-1) is one that seems to fit well enough in a field lacking world beaters.
• #1 SLOW DOWN SUMMER (9-2) seems to be running for the minor placings in this contest. She is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race. This one is well bred for this spot.

Selections: 8 – 3 – 7 – 1

Aqueduct- Race 5

Post: 2:19 PM ET; $55k Starter Allowance going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

• #6 REIGNING CHICK (6-1) is the top pick. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Reynolds and Davis. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #8 CUPIDS GIRL (4-1) should be competitive in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures.
• #2 GLOWSITY (2-1) could be in with a shot in this race. She looks to be the class of the field.
• #7 TRUE EMPRESS (3-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 6 – 8 – 2 – 7

Aqueduct- Race 6

Post: 2:53 PM ET; $82k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 FLASHNDYNAMITE (10-1) is a price horse and looks best here. She has the top overall power rating in the group. This one seems to fit really well here.
• #3 DAME CINCO (5-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Atras and Davis. This one should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #6 MY SWEET WIFE (9-2) has races good enough to beat this group. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #2 LIAM'S KISS (9-2) should be competitive in this spot. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Pletcher and Lezcano. This one could get the right setup in this race.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 6 – 2

Aqueduct- Race 7

Post: 3:28 PM ET; $150k Toboggan S. going 7 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #1 THREE TWO ZONE (8-1) gets the top selection. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one makes sense on speed figures.
• #3 DRAFTED (4-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Duggan and Rodriguez.
• #2 PIRATE RICK (3-1) should be competitive in this spot. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #6 REPO ROCKS (9-2) has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 2 – 6

Aqueduct- Race 8

Post: 4:00 PM ET; $72k Allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 8

• #4 ROYAL CURRENCY (9-5) is the top pick. She shouldn't have trouble with the 6 furlong distance. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #3 FANCY FELINE (5-2) could be in with a shot in this race. She looks to be the class of the field. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #6 BACKED BY GOLD (7-2) feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #7 BANKERS DAUGHTER (12-1) is a price horse and isn't without hope. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 6 – 7

Aqueduct- Race 9

Post: 4:30 PM ET; $70k Maiden Special Weight going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 BOURBON CHASE (2-1) looks best here. He looks to be the class of the field.
• #10 MAKER'S CANDY (6-1) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #5 FACTUALLY CORRECT (5-2) has races good enough to beat this group.
• #9 WYNN GIANT (8-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.

Selections: 3 – 10- 5 – 9

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