Belmont Stakes: Bloodlines for Distance in a Wide Open Affair

The triple crown dream were dead weeks ago. However, the 2022 Belmont Stakes is a race with plenty of intrigue. With a race that seems wide open on paper, here’s a look at the pedigrees of the likely contenders.

The Belmont Stakes

“The Belmont” as it is often referred is the final leg of the triple crown. However, this year’s race looks more like a contentious stakes race than a part of a larger series. Rich Strike conceded the triple crown by not participating in the Preakness. Early Voting, winner of the Preakness will pass on this one as he did the Derby.

The Belmont Stakes is run at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. The race is traditionally held the first week in June. This typically caps off the triple crown season however, there have been exceptions.

In 2020 the Belmont actually kicked off the triple crown as the racing world got back on track following the many closures during the earliest phases of the pandemic.

“Big Sandy”

The Belmont main track is unusual for a couple of reasons. First the oval is a mile and one half around. That means that horses cover as much ground in a lap at Belmont as they would in 1 and a half laps anywhere else.

Another challenge of the track is the composition of the track that can be quite tiring at times. The sandy part of the nickname comes from the fact that the dirt can be tiring, like running on a sandy beach.

This can be particularly daunting for a potential triple crown winner who can be coming into the race running his third race in 5 weeks.

Test of a Champion

As though the surface wasn’t enough for horses to contend with, the Belmont Stakes is also the longest of the three triple crown races. At 12 furlongs all of the horses will be stretching out to a new long distance. In fact more than likely none of these runners will ever go 12 furlongs again.

With the distance unknowns, players have to use signal to determine who the race may set up for.

Not a Closers Race

Many people immediately think that because the race is longer that it favors closers. In reality the Belmont Stakes has actually been much kinder to horses on or near the lead. This could mean trouble for two of the likely short prices in Mo Donegal and Rich Strike.

Dosage in the Belmont Stakes

Horseplayers tend to be opinionated people. After all, having opinions is the name of the game. One of the factors that has been debated among horseplayers is the use of a popular Belmont angle known as dosage.

The dosage index is a quantified number that is supposed to indicate if a horse is bred for speed or stamina.

Something not Everything

Pedigree matters. Most people would not quibble with that argument. The extent to which dosage can predict a winner is up to far more lively debate. The best approach is to use dosage as one of the many inputs that help make decisions on who to bet.

I will not bet a horse solely because of dosage, but if two horses are equal across many categories it can at times be a separator between the two.

Understanding Dosage

For most who look at dosage index once or twice a year, there are a couple aspects that are worth looking at. The first item is often labelled as the Dosage Index (DI). This is a single number that establishes what distances the horse will be best at based on their pedigree.

A dosage index closer to 0 means the horse is bred for distance. Generally speaking anything below a 4.0 means that horse will prefer routing to sprinting, whereas numbers above 4 may show a preference for sprints.

The other key indicator is the Center of Distribution (CD). This number weighs the horses speed vs. stamina. Positive numbers indicate that the breeding suggests speed. Negative numbers indicate that the pedigree is suited more to stamina.

For a further explanation of the aspects of dosage, a full breakdown can be found via Team Valor’s website.

Belmont Stakes Bloodlines

The following is a look at the possible Belmont Stakes competitors. The field has not yet been confirmed for the race and is subject to change as the post draw gets closer.

Secretariat

• Howling Time is trained by Dale Romans. He has a dosage index of 1.33 and a Center of Distribution of 0.21. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is Secretariat who can be found in the fifth generation.

Seattle Slew

• Nest is trained by Todd Pletcher. She has a dosage index of 3 and a Center of Distribution of 0.69. The most recent Belmont winner in her bloodline is Seattle Slew who can be found in the 3rd generation of the pedigree.
• Skippylongstocking is trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr. He has a dosage index of 3 and a Center of Distribution of 0.69. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is Seattle Slew who can be found 4 generations back in the pedigree.

AP Indy

• Mo Donegal is trained by Todd Pletcher. He has a dosage index of 3 and a Center of Distribution of 0.63. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is A.P. Indy who can be found back 3 generations.
• Barber Road is trained by John Ortiz. He has a dosage index of 3.8 and a Center of Distribution of 0.83. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is A.P. Indy who is found 4 generations back in the bloodlines.
• Creative Minister is trained by Kenny McPeek. He has a dosage index of 1.91 and a Center of Distribution of 0.38. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is A.P. Indy who is a sire in the 4th generation of the pedigree.
• We the People is trained by Rudolphe Brisset. He has a dosage index of 4.33 and a Center of Distribution of 0.75. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is A.P. Indy who can be found in the 4th generation of the pedigree.

Lemon Drop Kid

• Ethereal Road is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He has a dosage index of 1.91 and a Center of Distribution of 0.44. The most recent Belmont winner in his bloodline is Lemon Drop Kid who can be found in the third generation back.

No Belmont Winning Sires

• Golden Glider is trained by Mark Casse. He has a dosage index of 2.27 and a Center of Distribution of 0.56. He does not have any Belmont Stakes winning horses in his 5 deep pedigree analysis.
• Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike is trained by Eric Reed. He has a dosage index of 3.36 and a Center of Distribution of 0.75. This runner does not have any Belmont Stakes winners in the 5 generation pedigree analysis.

Pedigree Plays

Again, this analysis is not meant to determine the outright winner, but rather be a secondary tool in establishing the order of contenders.

Of the runners in the race only We The People has a dosage over 4. This may mean that the distance could be a bit too far for him, but there is a chance he could set the early pace and get away with fractions slow enough to carry the distance. Regardless of pedigree, this may be a considerable factor.

Creative Minister and Ethereal Road are two horses that seem to be on the rise with solid performances in their last races. With some of the lowest dosage in the field, both of these runners may get a small bump up on my tickets.

Belmont Stakes Coverage

Betting News will continue to cover the Belmont Racing Festival which is highlighted by the Belmont Stakes all week long. Check back in daily for the latest news and analysis from Elmont, New York.