Betting the Belmont Stakes: Wager Strategies for All Budgets

Success at the race track is not easy. Players must combine solid handicapping with sharp betting strategy & money management. Here’s a look at how to make money at the Belmont Stakes.

Short Fields on the Belmont Saturday Card

Much has been made throughout the racing world about the small field sizes for the Belmont Stakes card. While some of the fields are a bit light on runners, there are few races that lack quality.

Almost top to bottom the stakes races have intriguing matches and likely winners. While some players bemoan the “chalk”, Saturday’s card looks like a great card to make money if players attack wagering based on the situation and not their standard preferred strategies.

Belmont Stakes Late Pick 5 Opinions

If you’ve followed the Betting News wagering strategies articles for other big races you know that my preferred approach to betting is to start with opinions and fit the wagers to them.

The following outlines opinions on the races during the the late pick 5 on Belmont Stakes day.

Race 7- Ogden Phipps

• #1 Letruska is the likeliest winner.
• #5 Search Results offers the best value in the race.
• #3 Malathaat will get first run at the leaders.

Race 8- Jaipur Stakes

• Wide open race makes this the most likely place to get a price horse.
• #3 True Valor in with a huge upset chance.
• #5 Arrest Me Red is favored and looks good on paper and should not be played against.
• #2 Omaha City, #6 Greyes Creek, and #7 Whatmakessammyrun are the only three I can’t make a legitimate case for.

Race 9- Met Mile

• #1 Flightline is very likely, but will be crushed on tickets with lots of questions marks (layoff, ship, etc).
• #2 Speakers Corner is the other main contender.
• #3 Aloha West will benefit if the #1 and #2 try to run each other into the ground.

Race 10- Manhattan Stakes

• #2 Gufo is ultra consistent but can fall short at times.
• #4 Adhamo gets Chad Brown’s top jockey
• #9 Santin is very live at 7-2
• There are a number of horses that could win this race outside of the 3 listed above. The only ones I am against are the #1 L’Imperator, #3 Tokyo Gold and #7 Tribhuvan

Race 11- Belmont Stakes

• #1 We the People isn’t strong enough to hold the lead throughout.
• #3 Nest, #5 Creative Minister, and #6 Mo Donegal will have chances late.
• #4 Rich Strike and #8 Barber Road will get over bet and won’t offer value. Nest may also suffer this fate taking “filly” and “Pletcher” money.
• #2 Skippylongstocking and #7 Golden Glider feel like they are running here just to be in the race.

Betting the Belmont Stakes

Horizontals

There are likely to be a large number of favorites or short priced horse winning over the course of this sequence. Players should look to take one of two approaches as they work through ticket construction.

Press Up

Some players may feel that a runner like Flightline is unbeatable. If that’s the case the pick bet payouts will decrease dramatically. Instead of playing for the $.50 minimum, tickets may need to be bumped up to $1 or $2 to compensate for the loss of value.

Take a Stand

The other option is to take a stand against a probable winner. This approach takes nerves of steel and you have to be willing to lose more than you win. The advantage is that when you beat the short price with your opinion, you build instant equity.

Belmont Stakes Late Pick 5 Ticket

• Ogden Phipps: #1 LETRUSKA
• Jaipur: #1 CHANGE OF CONTROL, #3 TRUE VALOUR, #4 CASA CREED, #5 ARREST ME RED,#8 SCUTTLEBUZZ, #9 FILO DI ARIANNA, #10 SMOKIN' JAY #11 CHASING ARTIE, #12 GEAR JOCKEY, #13 GREGORIAN CHANT
• Met Mile: #2 SPEAKERS CORNER
• Manhattan: #2 GUFO, #4 ADHAMO, #9 SANTIN
• Belmont Stakes: #1 WE THE PEOPLE, #5 CREATIVE MINISTER, #6 MO DONEGAL

$.50 Ticket Cost: $45

Belmont Stakes Verticals

For vertical wagers it is important not just to pick winners, but also to have an idea of race shape as this often plays a much bigger role in the final outcome than talent of the horses.

The raw pace projection looks at the opening 1/2 mile times of each runner in the race.

One anomaly that pops off the page is the idea that #2 Skippylongstocking will be on the clear lead. This is largely due to races run at Gulfstream Park which do tend to produce faster early paces. However, this horse has shown no desire to be in the first flight since stretching longer than a mile.

I would imagine the more likely placement would be closer to #3 Nest and #6 Mo Donegal.

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenarios

When constructing vertical tickets I like to look at different pace outcomes. Here are my trifecta tickets based on different pace scenarios and build trifectas around them.

If speed holds it is hard not to see both #1 We The People and #5 Creative Minister not hitting the board. Likely next tier horses that could dink up into the number would be #3 Nest, #6 Mo Donegal, and #8 Barber Road.

If the race ends up formful it feels like #6 Mo Donegal has to be involved in the trifecta with a lot of the other moderate priced horses.

If the pace melts down, which is the least likely scenario in my estimation, the race should be an easy victory for #6 Mo Donegal and #4 Rich Strike becomes a much bigger player.

Trifectas Using Pace Scenarios

• Speed Holds (most likely): $2 Trifecta #1, #5 with #1, #5 with #3, #6,#8 and $2 Trifecta #1,#5 with #3, #6, #8 with #1, #5 (Total Cost $24)
• Formful : $1 Trifecta Key Box #6 with #3, #5, and #8 (Total Cost $18)
• Meltdown: $.50 Trifecta Key #6 with #3, #4, #8 with #1, #3, #4, #5, #8 ($6)

Wager Total: $48

Final Betting Reminders

Although the strategy above is devoted to trifectas, the methodology can easily be used to create exacta combinations. Examples would include betting the top 2 speeds in the race or paring 1 speed with 1 closer. Ultimately the key is composing a betting strategy that combines your handicapping opinion with your bankroll limitations.

DRF Bets also offers a free ticket maker tool that can help with your bet construction as well as calculate potential payouts of your different wagers.

Betting News Free Handicapping Tools

For more information on racing from all of the Belmont Park action, check out our free handicapping tools.