Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday: Analysis From Del Mar

Friday of the Breeders’ Cup features the rising stars of racing. Saturday however, is a chance to see some the best of the best competing to be a world champion in their division.

Handicapping Marathon

The two-day card from Del Mar can be a war of attrition for even the most experienced handicappers. Along with more races and larger fields foreign form makes the puzzle all the more difficult to decipher.

Betting News provides free computer generated handicapping solutions to help make the process a bit less daunting.

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Analysis

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The Favorite

#5 Gamine (3/5) is 9 for 10 lifetime with her only loss coming to Shedaresthedevil at a route as a three year old in the Kentucky Oaks. Other than that she’s been perfect and will likely romp on this crew.

Possible Contenders

• #4 Ce Ce (4/1) has been in the 2nd flight of this division, but did win a stakes last out at Santa Anita.
• #6 Bella Sofia (5/2) represents the east coast here having thrown up 4 consecutive improving speed figures. She is 3 for her last 3 and is the only one with a speed figure in Gamine’s ball park.

The Others

• #1 Proud Emma (20/1) is a local horse that has tried the 2nd tier of this group and hasn’t been competitive.
• #2 Estilo Talentoso (12/1) has been scratched and will not run.
• #3 Edgeway (12/1) won a listed stakes 2 back at Del Mar and has never finished out of the money at the track.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

The Favorite

• #3 Golden Pal (7/2) has a single loss on American soil and that was on debut. He will be winging on the front end and playing catch me if you can. He won the Juvenile version of this division last year.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Glass Slippers (6/1) won this race last year, but needed all of the 5 1/2 furlongs to get there. At Del Mar the race is shortened to 5 furlongs which may be a touch short for this one.
• #4 Lieutenant Dan (6/1) has put up back to back speed figures better than anything on the favorites past performances. He will be forward and draws well.
• #6 A Case of You (8/1) has gotten better of the defending champ Glass Slippers at this distance in back to back events overseas.
• #12 Extravagant Kid (12/1) was only a length behind Glass Slippers last year and 1/2 length behind race favorite Golden Pal last out.

The Others

• #2 Emaraaty Ana (5/1) has run against solid horses overseas, but found new life coming from the off the pace. That tactic typically isn’t as successful in these types of races.
• #5 Arrest Me Red (12/1) is 2 for 2 since switching to Wesley Ward, but possesses the same run style as the favorite and just isn’t as fast.
• #7 Charmaine's Mia (30/1) is far removed from the promise showed in spring of 2021. Her best finish in the last 6 months was 6th beaten 3 1/4 lengths.
• #8 Caravel (20/1) would be surprising here as the figures are light compared to the top group. Motion is also extremely poor training horses off lasix which are not permitted at the Breeders’ Cup.
• #9 Kimari (6/1) is another runner from the Ward barn with an eclectic resume covering 4 1/2 to 7 furlongs and bouncing around surfaces. The best performances this year have been on dirt.
• #10 Gear Jockey (5/1) comes out of Kentucky Downs which has often proven to be useful form.
• #11 Fast Boat (12/1) has roller coaster form bouncing between off the board finishes and victories. He didn’t win last time at Kentucky Downs so maybe he steps up.

Also Eligible

These horses will only run if a scratch occurs within the other runners.

• #13 Bombard (20/1) is useable if you like the Kentucky Downs form.
• #14 The Critical Way (15/1) is 3 for the last 3 but against weaker.
• #15 Chaos Theory (30/1) has been competitive with a number of the contenders in this race.
• #16 Beer Can Man (20/1) seems like a solid allowance runner at this distance. This looks like a dive in the deep end.
• #17 Commander (30/1) has been well beaten by type players in this group.
• #18 Hollywood Talent (30/1) won last out, but that was at Parx which isn’t the level of this group.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Favorite

• #5 Life Is Good (4/5) should win easily if it finds most of the numbers in the past performances.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Silver State (7/2) was good in the Met Mile but that seems to have taken a lot out of him.
• #8 Eight Rings (10/1) wasn’t far behind Dr. Schivel who will be among the 2nd tier of wagering interests in the Sprint.

The Others

• #2 Pingxiang (12/1) is tough to read given the Japanese form, but horses from the island nation haven’t faired well since starting to join the fray.
• #3 Ginobili (4/1) looked solid in the Pat O’Brien, but didn’t have to run with the likes of Life is Good on the front.
• #4 Jasper Prince (30/1) also comes over from Japan. The one American start at Keeneland was forgettable.
• #6 Restrainedvengence (20/1) was well a well beaten 4th in the Charles Town Classic.
• #7 Snapper Sinclair (12/1) had become a turf horse. This is a puzzling switch for a big spot.

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

The Favorite

• #7 War Like Goddess (7/2) hasn’t lost since February and has the ability to close regardless of the pace setup in front of her.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Going to Vegas (12/1) was supplemented to the race meaning that her connections had to pay to get here.
• #2 Pocket Square (15/1) is a grade 3 winner and goes out for the best turf barn in the U.S.
• #4 Rougir (6/1) has been quite unsettled since exiting the quarantine barn with lots of antics on the back side. Group 1 winners in France have to be respected.
• #6 Love (4/1) has won at Ascot and has figures that make her a huge threat here.
• #12 Audarya (5/1) should be forward early and may like the firm ground. She seems just a cut below the top flight.

The Others

• #3 Acanella (12/1) won a group three but there are more impressive resumes in this crew.
• #5 Queen Supreme (20/1) is an Irish bred who has a victory in a Saudi Group 1.
• #8 Loves Only You (4/1) is a Group 1 winner at Sha Tin in Honk Kong and has some figures that suggest she could hang.
• #9 My Sister Nat (15/1) has had too many races that need excuses to make here a serious player.
• #10 Ocean Road (20/1) only has 1 career win in 5 starts. This is a big ask.
• #11 Dogtag (30/1) has hit the trifecta in the last 5, but this field is tougher.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

The Favorite

• #2 Jackie's Warrior (6/5) goes really fast, breaking the will of the others before they even have a chance to run at him. Life is Good went elsewhere to avoid another throw down with this one.

The Others

• #1 Following Sea (6/1) was beaten almost 10 lengths by the favorite 2 back.
• #3 C Z Rocket (12/1) has a win over the track but hasn’t found winning form lately.
• #4 Matera Sky (20/1) is a Japanese horse that hasn’t come within 15 pts of Jackie’s races.
• #5 Aloha West (8/1) is a solid stakes horse, but no superstar.
• #6 Firenze Fire (10/1) gained mainstream popularity for savaging Yaupon in the Forego. He’s a good underneath play but unlikely to win.
• #7 Lexitonian (20/1) runs well every other race. This one is due to outrun the morning line.
• #8 Special Reserve (6/1) has been consistent in solid company, but hasn’t seen a monster like this.
• #9 Dr. Schivel (4/1) gets the homefield advantage, but as was covered in our trends article, that didn’t matter much in the last Del Mar Breeders’ Cup.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

The Favorite

• #3 Space Blues (3/1) was touted by trainer Charlie Appleby as his best chance to win at the Breeders’ Cup. The figures are competitive in this spot.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Master of The Seas (12/1) was within a nose of winning a Group 1 in England.
• #2 Smooth Like Strait (10/1) has been just behind Mo Forza in the last 2.
• #6 Mo Forza (5/1) is west coast based on has closed into slow fractions which is a huge plus. The numbers are good on this one.
• #7 In Love (8/1) is 3 for the last 3 including a 12-1 upset in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last out.
• #10 Blowout (8/1) could be lone speed which has been good for this runner in the past.
• #13 Casa Creed (15/1) pulled an upset at 10-1 on tight turns on the Belmont inner. If he can work out a trip from the wide post, this one gets very interesting at 15-1.

The Others

• #4 Raging Bull (15/1) was overmatched in this field last year and seems like more of the same.
• #5 Vin de Garde (20/1) looks light on class in this spot.
• #8 Hit the Road (15/1) has been consistently finishing behind other foes in this race.
• #9 Mother Earth (8/1) is a Group 1 winner in France for a world class barn and jockey combination.
• #11 Got Stormy (10/1) has been inconsistent at best over the last year. This feels like a reach.
• #12 Pearls Galore (12/1) was 2 lengths behind Space Blues last out and beat Mother Earth before that. The price is fair.
• #14 Ivar (12/1) hasn’t hit the board since October of 2020.

Also Eligible

These horses will only run if a scratch occurs within the other runners.

• #15 Real Appeal (15/1) is a Group 2 winner in Ireland.
• #16 Queen Supreme (30/1) wilted at this distance last out.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The Favorite

• #6 Letruska (8/5) looks tough in the spot. She’s beaten the top of this division in each of her last 5 starts.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Private Mission (8/1) has been steadily improving and could spring the upset if the improvement continues.
• #3 Malathaat (4/1) is the most likely of the 3 year olds to get it done here, but would have to jump up on figures and often leaves everything to the last jump.
• #8 Shedaresthedevil (4/1) is the last horse to beat Letruska.

The Others

• #2 Royal Flag (8/1) has beat Horologist in the last 2 but those races seem a cut below.
• #4 Blue Stripe (30/1) is an Argentinian horse. That form typically hasn’t transferred well.
• #5 Clairiere (12/1) was a star against horses her own age, but jumps into the deep end after inconsistent results against the Oaks division.
• #7 Horologist (30/1) has been beaten by a number of these, but does possess speed and draws outside of Letruska which could be a benefit.
• #9 As Time Goes By (15/1) has been on four race cycles and has had 3 improving speed figures. Previous form suggests that she could be cycling up for a big run here. Will it be good enough?
• #10 Marche Lorraine (30/1) has been a solid but not great horse in Japan and faces some of the best dirt speed in the country in this race.
• #11 Dunbar Road (15/1) is has had varying degrees of success against this level of competition. This feels like a bridge too far.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

The Favorite

• #13 Tarnawa (9/5) is the defending champ and returns to take on the boys again in this spot. She just missed in the Arc last out which is widely regarded as the most prestigious turf race in the world.

Possible Contenders

• #1 Rockemperor (15/1) ran a bang up race at Belmont less than a month ago. If you believe that one this one is in with a huge shot here.
• #3 Domestic Spending (4/1) is the best shot for the Americans and gets the benefit of a good draw. This one will be hoping for Channel Maker to draw in to increase the pace early.
• #12 Teona (6/1) won a Grade 1 over Snowfall at Longchamp in September and is an interesting player.

The Others

• #2 United (20/1) is 5/6 in the money at Del Mar but was well beaten in this race last year at Keeneland.
• #4 Astronaut (20/1) won his Del Mar debut against weaker.
• #5 Tribhuvan (20/1) has done his best running on a lone lead. It’s hard to image that setting up here.
• #6 Acclimate (20/1) will play a role in the race by setting blistering fractions early though it is tough to imagine him hanging on for an award.
• #7 Walton Street (8/1) has great numbers but the last figure was earned at Woodbine sitting off a reckless pace.
• #8 Broome (20/1) has consistently been a notch below the top European runners in the division.
• #9 Sisfahan (12/1) had early success in France before heading to a weaker circuit in Germany.
• #10 Yibir (12/1) ran impressively at Belmont in September against a softer field.
• #11 Gufo (8/1) has had trouble at the start in the last 2 events and that could spell trouble against this caliber of competition.
• #14 Japan (20/1) has had 3 tries at firm going and not been good enough in any of them.

Also Eligible

These horses will only run if a scratch occurs within the other runners.

• #15 Bolshoi Ballet (15/1) was a beaten favorite in back to back NYRA stakes.
• #16 Channel Maker (20/1) would heat up the pace for the late kickers, but probably lakes the staying power against this year’s field.
• #17 Mogul (30/1) hasn’t won since December of 2020.
• #18 Friar's Road (30/1) was behind both United and Acclimate last out.

Breeders’ Cup Classic

The Favorite

• #5 Knicks Go (5/2) following a Saudi Arabian hangover in the Met Mile, this horse has been dominant in the last three and will look to run them all off their feet.

Possible Contenders

• #3 Hot Rod Charlie (4/1) was 94-1 in last year’s Juvenile but has been consistently impressive since then. He has to be considered a major threat stalking the pace. Along with Medina Spirit he is one of 3 horses to ever cross the wire in front of Essential Quality.
• #4 Essential Quality (3/1) is one length from being 9 for 9 in the career. Proven winners deserve respect in this game.
• #8 Medina Spirit (4/1) is a major player if the Baffert runners are firing. The concern is that despite his heart, he will have to out “Knicks Go” Knicks Go and that could spell disaster.
• #9 Max Player (8/1) The race seems to have plenty of speed and this one could pick up pieces late if the pace completely melts down.

The Others

• #1 Tripoli (15/1) was well beaten by Medina Spirit last out but prior to that had some solid races for consideration underneath.
• #2 Express Train (20/1) looked ready to emerge after the San Diego at Del Mar, but the next 2 starts saw the horse beaten by over 17 combined lengths.
• #6 Art Collector (8/1) was once considered a favorite for the Kentucky Derby and has returned to the races with 3 straight wins for Bill Mott, but it is considering that they were all front running efforts against slow or moderate paces which won’t happen here.
• #7 Stilleto Boy (30/1) has finished behind Medina Spirit in the last 2 which suggests he may have a shot underneath. However, Rock Your World who also finished ahead of this one just threw up another disappointing run so it is really hard to grasp which form represents current ability.

Further Coverage

Following the races on Friday evening Betting News will run a brief track profile looking at how the Del Mar track has been playing through the week of racing for possible tells about what to expect on Saturday.