Breeders’ Cup 2022 Post Position Draw: Winners & Losers

Following a week of players pouring over the pre-entries, the post positions were drawn for Breeders’ Cup 2022 on Monday. Here are the winners and losers from Monday.

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FRIDAY

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

• Distance: 5 ½ furlongs
• Surface: Turf

Over an 11 race sample Brisnet identifies posts 4-7 as having the greatest positive impact on horse’s performance.

Big Winners

When establishing winners for these races I look for speed that drew middle spots. The big winner in the post is #9 Sharp Aza Tack. This speed demon will want to fly and doesn’t have a ton of speed to his inside.

#5 Mischief Magic should also be happy with the draw. This one doesn’t show as much speed but should be able to make her own trip from the 5 hole.

#2 Love Reigns is also probably quite content with the inside post. This one has speed for Wesley Ward who is known to have fast breaking horses. If this one can use that gate speed early, he should clear and be able to save ground on wider speed.

Big Losers

The big losers in this race appear to be concentrated on either side of the starting gate. European horses can be a bit slow into stride and the rail position for #1 Lady Hollywood isn’t ideal as she may have to deal with horses converging from the outside.

On the other end of the gate are a pair of speeds in #12 The Platinum Queen and #10 Tyler’s Tribe. Both of these runners love to be forward, but with Sharp Aza Tack to the inside they may have to send hard to find the front. The one advantage for these two is they should steer clear of traffic.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Surface: Dirt

At this distance horses from the inside draws do tend to get quite an advantage on their opponents.

Big Winners

The big winners in this race appear to be toward the inside of a very full starting gate. #5 Wonder Wheel and #7 Chop Chop are among the many horses who love to get forwardly placed. They do have plenty of speed to the inside, but their quality should allow them to clear those and settle.

At 30-1 #4 Sabra Tough also got a decent draw. On paper it looks like everyone around her is going to clear out and she should be able to pick her spot in behind speed and hope the speed backs up.

Big Losers

The losers in this race appear to be forwardly place outside runners. Significant downgrades have to be given to #13 Leave No Trace, #12 Shoplifter, and race favorite, #10 Chocolate Gelato. The favorite does tend to be a bit handy so the wide draw may not be so tough, but there may be so many others in similar spots heading to the first turn that this one may still get swung wide.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

• Distance: 1 mile
• Surface: Turf

Generally speaking in this race any post from 1-7 has had a positive impact value on the horse’s performance. Outside posts have failed to score a single victory in the 20 race sample.

Big Winners

The race feels like it lacks a lot of speed. Of the horses that like to be forward I’m sure the connections of #2 Cairo Consort are happy to be inside amongst a bunch of horses that won’t have a lot of interest in chasing.

The other big winner here appears to be #10 Meditate who should be able stay in the clear while finding a place to settle.

Big Losers

Without question the losers in this race have to be #13 Xigera and AE Bling who are both speed runners. While there may not be a ton of pace on in this race, both will have to use a lot of energy to clear the speed and tactical horses to their inside.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Surface: Dirt

The Keeneland dirt has been kind to the inside posts. The rail actually has the highest positive impact value of all the posts.

Big Winners

#3 Cave Rock couldn’t have asked for a better spot. This one should be able to break well and control his own destiny.

Big Losers

The big loser of this race is the field. It doesn’t appear as though there is any legitimate speed pressure inside of Cave Rock and that spells trouble.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

• Distance: 1 mile
• Surface: Turf

These turf rates tend to be pretty fair across all post positions with the exception of the wide posts which are identified as 8 and beyond.

Big Winners

When favorites draw well it always a huge advantage. Both #4 Silver Knott and #2 Packs A Wahlop drew beautifully hear and should get a good run of things.

Big Losers

The two widest posts have to be considered the big losers here. #14 Gaslight Dancer is a speed blazer and got hung widest of all. #13 Major Dude also likes to be forward and will be just to that one’s inside.

SATURDAY

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

• Distance: 7 furlongs
• Surface: Dirt

Races at 7 furlongs have favored horses to the outside. Posts 4 and out have had significant positive impact.

Big Winners

The biggest winner in this race might have been #4 Ce Ce. There is a ton of speed in this race and a lot of it drew to the outside. That means late running horses like the #4 and #7 Obligatory can sit back and pick off the hot pace runners as they come home.

Big Losers

#10 Hot Peppers, #12 Lady Rocket, and #13 Echo Zulu are all speed runners. While they will have the length of the stretch to get over to the rail, their pace number suggest they will have trouble making the front from out there and that spells trouble.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

• Distance: 5 1/2 furlongs
• Surface: Turf

Turf sprints at Keeneland tend to be dominated by middle posts. This draw allows horses to avoid the inside and traffic while also losing too much ground.

Big Winners

The big winner here is #8 Golden Pal who draws inside of many of the speed threats. This spells danger for this field. Other horses that drew well are #6 Highfield Princess and #4 Campanelle.

Big Losers

The best chance this group had at dethroning the champion was to get some speed to draw inside and push Golden Pal. That didn’t happen and horse like #14 Artemis Citylimits, #12 Bran, and #10 Caravel all got marooned to the outside.

Also hurt by a wide draw is #11 Casa Creed who won’t get to save as much ground as similar run style horses to the inside.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

• Distance: 1 mile
• Surface: Dirt

Big Winners

This race will be interesting to see play out on the track. At first look all the speed drew inside. With all of the major contenders breaking for the lead horse like #4 Law Professor, #9 Cyberknife, and #11 Three Technique should have a chance to run their best races.

Big Losers

#6 Laurel River and #7 Cody’s Wish both like to sit stalking trips, but with Gunite and Simplification to their inside, they may give up a lot of ground. This would require them to be much the best to win and I’m not sure they are.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF

• Distance: 1 3/16 miles
• Surface: Turf

Big Winners

The big winners in this race where the favorites. The post draw did little to impact the overall chances of any of these types which hopefully should lead to a formful race. Even the wide draw for projected speed #11 In Italian isn’t a concern because there doesn’t appear to be a lot of challengers trying to push her to the lead.

Big Losers

If anyone came out poorly maybe it was the #12 Moira who looked an interesting prospect in the pre-entries, but may have to work out the right trip with not much speed signed on inside.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

• Distance: 6 furlongs
• Surface: Dirt

Past performance suggests that being outside is ok here.

Big Winners

#9 Jackie’s Warrior was the big winner. It has less to do with the draw and more to do with the underwhelming group that decided to show up against him.

Big Losers

If there is a loser in the group it would have to be #11 Flash of Mischief. This horse is also a speed horse who has almost no shot drawn outside of a superstar.

Honorable mention goes to the fans who won’t get to see Jack Christopher for the 2nd straight Breeders’ Cup. The consolation prize is that Jackie’s Warrior should, with anything close to his best, get to ride off into the sunset as a BC winner.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

• Distance: 1 mile
• Surface: Dirt

Once again the horses will take to a turf route which plays very evenly to the inside 7 posts.

Big Winners

Most of the runners in this spot are probably feeling pretty good about where they ended up. The main contenders drew largely to the inside posts while many of the outside runners don’t have to show a ton of speed. It’s hard to say anyone truly one this draw, but more importantly many were spared defeat by it.

Big Losers

The 2 losers of the group would probably be the two outside runners. #13 Kinross and #14 Domestic Spending are both going to have to work out some impressive trips from those posts especially in what looks to be a fairly moderately paced race.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Surface: Dirt

Over a very short sample set of races both the inside and outside seem to have the best positive impact on horse performance under these conditions.

Big Winners

This is yet another race where the draw did little to impact the top 3 on the board. #1 Malathaat, #4 Clairiere, and #6 Nest all should be well suited to their draws. This one figures to be a fair race which should be an absolute treat for race fans.

Big Losers

The biggest losers would have to be the two outside runners #8 Society, and #7 Search Results were arguably the best legitimate pace runners to go up against Nest. These two will both end up wide of her and be forced to play off of what their more talented rival does.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

• Distance: 1 1/2 miles
• Surface: Turf

This mile and a half is a long way around for a lot of these runners. The three turn race has benefitted the rail and posts 4-7 under this configuration.

Big Winners

This post draw seemed to benefit a lot of runners. One outsider who got the best of it was #4 Broome. This runner likes to come from out of it, but has decent early pace to stay as engaged as he wants. This one may get to pick the pocket early.

Other runners like #1 Bye Bye Melvin and #5 Rebel’s Romance should have no trouble working out their trip from their respective posts.

Big Losers

Without question the connections of #13 Highland Chief were looking for a middle to inside draw. Instead the horse will be left wide and will have to fight for position or lose valuable ground.

Similarly, #11 Mishriff has shown world class talent. The 11 hole means it will likely take that kind of effort again here to get the job done at 6-1.

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

• Distance: 1 1/4 miles
• Surface: Dirt

Big Winners

The big winners here are two of the headliners. #4 Flightline’s connections are on the record as saying that they are happy with the post. For one of his chief speed rivals, #2 Life is Good, drawing inside should give him the best chance to win.

After a stunning upset in the Kentucky Derby and some workman like stakes races throughout the summer, could #8 Rich Strike do it again? He was widest on the first Saturday in May and got a blistering pace to run at. Could Life is Good, Taiba, Flightline, Hot Rod Charlie, and Olympiad create an absurdist pace? Maybe, maybe not, but if “Richie” is going to pull another stunner, there are plenty of viable explanations.

Big Losers

#1 Taiba is lightly raced and has at times shown a strong dislike for running inside of horses. The jockey will have a task to navigate using Taiba’s natural speed while trying to work out a trip that leaves him in the clear.

#5 Hot Rod Charlie and #6 Epicenter both drew outside of Flightline who can be so versatile. It feels like their best shots were to make the favorite run more distance, but instead they will be the ones trying to get inside.

Breeders’ Cup Coverage

Betting News will continue to provide full coverage of the Breeders’ Cup. Check in throughout the week to see the winners and losers of the post position draw, analysis, selections, and recaps from Keeneland.