Breeders’ Cup Future Stars Friday Analysis from Del Mar

The Breeders’ Cup is finally here. The 2021 edition at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club will bring together the top horses from around the world to compete for division titles.

The Undercard

Del Mar will be running Wednesday and Thursday prior to Future Stars Friday. The track will also feature 5 races prior to the 1st Breeders’ Cup race on Friday. These races can be vital to developing track profiles.

Players can use these races to determine if horses should be upgraded or downgraded based on their post position or run style.

For complete picks from Del Mar, check out Betting News’ AI handicapping tools.

Breeders’ Cup Analysis

The following is a horse by horse breakdown of the Friday Breeders’ Cup races. For more information on how races played out at the last Del Mar edition of the event, check out Breeders’ Cup: Lessons Learned at Del Mar in 2017.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

This race has typically been dominated by inside runners who are forwardly placed. In past editions Americans have been more effective than Europeans.

The Favorite

• #8 AVERLY JANE (5-2) is no surprise as the favorite. She will take on the boys for Wesley Ward and is 4 for 4 in her young career. She’s quick from the gate and has improved speed figures each time she’s run. It is hard to toss this one off tickets.

Possible Contenders

• #1 TWILIGHT JET (15-1) comes of of a victory at Newmarket in England. This one is interesting at the price as speed figures suggest he could be the fastest of the group.
• #2 KAUFYMAKER (12-1) would be a bit of a surprise given the mid pack style. The horse’s only win came with a speed figure that makes this one hard to see.
• #6 TWILIGHT GLEAMING (4-1) goes out for Wesley Ward who has been a fixture in the Juvenile Turf Sprint division for years. The horses only loss came to the highly regarded Quick Suzie.
• #7 ARMOR (6-1) drew well and lost narrowly to Perfect Power who is the benchmark horse for a lot of the Europeans in this race.
• #12 RUN CURTIS RUN (20-1) gets an outside draw which is tough, but gets a major jockey upgrade in Luis Saez. Saez is a great gate rider and will likely try to push this one out to the front. This one seems worth a shot based on the Belmont effort last out if he stays around 20-1.

The Outsiders

• #3 GO BEARS GO (15-1) has been far back of the leaders in the last 3. The positive on this one is that the fastest speed figure was earned in a group 1 on firm turf which will be the condition at Del Mar.
• #4 VERTIGINOUS (20-1) showed well in the last race, but the class of those animals is not the same as what he will be up against here
• #5 HIERARCHY (12-1) appears to be a bit light on speed figures and hasn’t faces horse of this caliber yet.
• #9 ONE TIMER (4-1) has been popular in the lead up as a possible “wise guy” horse. The main advantage for this horse is that he will be forwardly placed. I’m not sure the advantage will be as pronounced as some have projected, but will be in the right place. This one could win, but players will need to evaluate the odds to determine if they truly represent the horse’s chances of winning.
• #10 TIME TO PARTY (15-1) has been improving and is interesting since in the last race it nearly caught the #9 in this race who is likely to be inside 4-1. The price discrepancy may be worth inclusion.
• #11 DERRYNANE (12-1) has Joel Rosario aboard who has been extremely good on the turf for years. The problem with this one is that trainer Christophe Clement has struggled with Breeders’ Cup runners despite a prolific career. He is looking to get his first win in the event despite sending out over 40 runners in the past.
• #13 THUNDER LOVE (30-1) is an also eligible and is likely to run on the undercard against olders which is unheard of. This one clearly has ability, but I’m not sure the connections will run here even if she draws in.
• #14 SUMTER (30-1) has gotten better in each of the first three starts, but this feels like a tall ask even if he jumps another 10 points in the speed figure department.

NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

The morning line maker seems to have this one pretty spot on. This race looks chalky and will probably be a place players need to go short unless you have a strong opinion against one of the top three.

The Favorite

• #6 ECHO ZULU (4-5) is 3 for 3 on the career and has popped speed figures that make her tough to see around here. She will likely be on or near the lead with her main rival in the race. She is out of Gun Runner and he has been firing runners right and left.

Possible Contenders

• #2 HIDDEN CONNECTION (5-2) is light on figures but did improve between the first and second start which is good. There are a couple of clockers who think this one is a monster in the making. She seems like a bit of stretch in this spot, but is certainly in the top three.
• #5 JUJU'S MAP (5-2) matches up well with the favorite on paper. They have thrown up similar top speed figures and will be running together on the front end. This one is improving and does offer significantly better value than the favorite. If you forgive the debut performance the price is a steal.

The Outsiders

• #1 DESERT DAWN (20-1) is getting better, but doesn’t feel like a horse that can compete with these types.
• #3 SEQUIST (15-1) has run against the top horses in this race and has always been well beaten. Horses can make big jumps with each start, but this one seems tough to get to flip the script from less than a month ago.
• #4 TARABI (12-1) is probably the best of the rest in the field. She contested Echo Zulu in the Spinaway and just couldn’t hang. Maybe that race put in some foundation and this one can take a step forward. If she does this one could be a good alternative to the short prices in the exotics.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This race features some prominent players from the US and Europe. My approach with races like this is to rank the US and the Euros separately and then look to compare the top on each list to each other to determine which horses I use in the end.

The Favorite

• #1 PIZZA BIANCA (5-1) is technically favored but at 5-1 it is hard to call her a true favorite. This one goes out for the aforementioned Clement who is winless at the Breeders’ Cup. This one seems vulnerable as the line implies.

Possible Contenders

• #2 CAIRO MEMORIES (12-1) has won the first 2 starts of the career. This may be too big of a jump in class. The win last time came closing into a fast pace, but the horse was able to do the same on debut into slower fractions.
• #5 BUBBLE ROCK (8-1) looks good on numbers and last won the Matron stakes at Belmont tracking a hot pace after taking a bump at the start.
• #6 HELLO YOU (10-1) has been steadily improving since the barn switch. The last race was a group 2 win over firm ground at Newmarket which bodes well here.
• #8 SAIL BY (20-1) pulled the upset in the Ms Grillo Stakes beating the highly touted Kinchen at odds of 12-1. If the horse is getting good at the right time, this one could present unbelievable value in the vertical exotics.
• #9 KOALA PRINCESS (6-1) is close to favoritism sitting only a point outside of the tepid favorite. She has competitive speed figures and has been ultra impressive in the first 2 and I suspect may actually be the deserving favorite when the gates open.
• #11 HAUGHTY (10-1) drew in for Chad Brown thanks to a defection. The horse is 2 for 2 though she was disqualified from the first victory causing her to break her maiden twice. She’s definitely worth a look.

The Outsiders

• #3 CACHET (12-1) wasn’t that far behind Hello You two back at Newmarket. If you like that one in the race, Cachet would also be a player to consider. Three improving speed figures don’t hurt either.
• #4 TURNERLOOSE (12-1) will be forward and has been a part of a couple fast paces. Not sure if she has enough to get the job done, but she is steadily improving.
• #7 CONSUMER SPENDING (8-1) has been trending in the wrong direction based on speed figures but it is hard to knock down too hard since the last 2 races were both victories and didn’t require a full effort. Brown goes to Prat which he’s been doing a lot more recently.
• #10 HELENS WELL (30-1) has struggled to get up despite fast paces in front of here. It is hard to imagine she will magically turn the tide here.
• #12 MALAVATH (8-1) gets on outside draw and the first start on firm. It is concerning that this one has improved speed figures as the ground has gotten softer.
• #13 MISE EN SCENE (6-1) makes sense based on numbers and past performance, but the outside does little to instill confidence.
• #14 CALIFORNIA ANGEL (8-1) is the Cinderella story of the Breeders’ Cup coming out of Indiana Grand, but the post did this very talented runner no favors.

TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance

This race looks to be an old school east coast/west coast showdown with the beast of the East meeting the best from the West.

The Favorite

• #1 JACK CHRISTOPHER (9/5) has looked ultra impressive in the first two starts and is definitely worthy of the top billing here.

Possible Contenders

• #9 PINEHURST (8-1) is 2 for 2 for Bob Baffert. The trainer has a strong hand in the race sending out this one and the outside runner who is preffered.
• #10 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (5-1) was 2nd best to the favorite in the Champagne. The east coast backers will look to use this one underneath hoping the form there was just better over the fall.
• #12 CORNICHE (5-2) is Baffert’s beast in the race. The difference in price between this runner and the favorite has a lot to do with post position, but it is hard to ignore the fact that this one could be talented enough to overcome that.

The Outsiders

• #2 JASPER GREAT (15-1) comes over from Japan and it is tough to get a read on how good the maiden win was on debut.
• #3 OVIATT CLASS (20-1) was well beaten by Corniche last time out. It would take a lot to flip the script here.
• #4 PAPPACAP (15-1) ran his eyeballs out against Corniche last out and may provide some value underneath if you think the west coast owns this race.
• #5 DOUBLE THUNDER (20-1) is improving with each start, but is light on class compared to these runners.
• #6 AMERICAN SANCTUARY (30-1) falls into the same category as the previous runner having finished behind Double Thunder in the last 2 starts.
• #7 GIANT GAME (30-1) won last out to break the maiden and wired the field setting slow fractions. That won’t be good enough in this crew.
• #8 BAROSSA (10-1) finally broke through after 3 tries at the maiden. While it could signal a horse turning on the lightbulb I don’t like the ambitious class jump after a trying start to the career.
• #11 TOUGH TO TAME (30-1) draws outside and hasn’t beaten much in the two career wins.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Looks wide open this year and is another race that will require players to choose between American runners and the Euros.

The Favorite

• #14 DUBAWI LEGEND (4-1) took a massive leap forward in a group 1 at the beginning of October in England. A top speed figure in the group makes this one a legitimate player despite the outside post.

Possible Contenders

• #1 MODERN GAMES (5-1) appears to be Appleby’s best shot here. Comments earlier this week from the trainer suggested he prefers this one to the #2.
• #3 DAKOTA GOLD (8-1) is 2 for 2 and the last race was at Monmouth. The track does not allow for crop use which could come in handy with California’s strict rider rules.
• #5 SLIPSTREAM (12-1) was fighting the rider early last out and still kicked home to win. Watch Run Curtis Run earlier in the card. A good performance from that one could upgrade this horse’s chances.
• #10 PORTFOLIO COMPANY (6-1) took a huge step forward in the Pilgrim. He won’t have to see the likes of Annapolis here who would have been a short price in this field.

The Outsiders

• #2 ALBAHR (6-1) is improving, but even his trainer thinks he’s the 2nd best charge in the barn which could be okay underneath, but isn’t a viable option for the top spot.
• #4 TIZ THE BOMB (8-1) showed well winning the Bourbon and popping the top career speed figure. He’ll have to keep improving to top the best of these.
• #6 MACKINNON (8-1) is undefeated in the last three but takes a big jump up in class and has numbers that make him a significant cut below the rest.
• #7 GREAT MAX (20-1) had a shot on the firm going in June and ran the worst career speed figure. Perhaps that was due more to the first start than the surface, but it is concerning.
• #8 GLOUNTHAUNE (12-1) was well beaten 2 back by the favorite and seems a bit light on speed numbers here. Aiden O’Brien has been better in America of late, but still leaves something to be desired for my liking.
• #9 STOLEN BASE (20-1) was behind Tiz the Bomb in the last race. The Bourbon doesn’t appear to be a terribly strong race.
• #11 GRAFTON STREET (15-1) was 2nd two races back to the #2 in this race and it wasn’t that close. It seems hard to see this one being capable of winning here.
• #12 CREDIBILITY (30-1) is yet another to come out of the Bourbon and an easy one to toss from all spots on the ticket after failing to close into a fast pace.
• #13 COINAGE (15-1) is an interesting one. He was nowhere close to Dakota Gold in the last race despite finishing 3rd, but before that finished ahead of Portfolio Company. The problem with that race is that he was able to slug along on the front getting typically slow NYRA fractions on the front end.
• #15 READY TO PURRFORM (20-1) won a listed turf stakes in Maryland last out. The undefeated colt would be up against it if he draws in.
• #16 DETROIT CITY (30-1) has never gone this distance and seems borderline impossible even if he were able to draw in.