Churchill Downs Picks: Saturday, November 11, River City Analysis

Churchill Downs will run one of the few graded stakes this weekend. The River City Stakes will run as race 10 on the turf course from Lexington.

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs- 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; $42k Maiden Claiming going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 14

• #8 ABSOLUTE COURAGE (7-5) earns the top selection. Asmussen and Gaffalione command respect as they send this one out, possessing the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #3 WINGER (10-1) is a price horse and appears to be a fringe contender in this spot. The distance shouldn’t pose trouble for this contender.
• #4 DARIO (9-2) seems like a fringe contender in this spot. The combination of Mcpeek and Hernandez adds to the respect for this one, considered the class of the field.
• #5 JUL QUIST (10-1) is a price horse and appears to be a fringe contender in this spot. The Ennis barn and Morales in the irons provide additional strength. Well bred for this spot.

Selections: 8 – 3 – 4 – 5

Churchill Downs- 2

Post: 1:30 PM ET; $66k Starter Allowance going 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 ENCHANTED NILE (2-1) stands out as the top pick. With solid early pace figures in a race lacking a ton of front-running speed, this one is a good bet to hit the board.
• #3 SHANIAH (8-1) is a fringe contender in this spot, projected to sit mid-pack and come with one run. The Contreras barn and Esquivel in the irons enhance the contender’s profile.
• #7 CHARGE ACCOUNT (5-2) isn’t without hope and commands respect going out for the combination of Foster and Gaffalione.
• #2 COEXIST (3-1) isn’t without hope, and it’s a good bet to hit the board in this type of race, boasting solid early pace figures in a race that lacks a ton of front-running speed.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 7 – 2

Churchill Downs- 3

Post: 2:00 PM ET; $78k Claiming going 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 8

• #1 HOWBEIT (3-1) appears the best here, with races good enough to beat this group. Solid early pace figures in a race lacking a ton of front-running speed add to the contender’s profile.
• #2 CAMP DAVID (7-2) is likely best to put underneath on most tickets, and the distance shouldn’t pose trouble for this contender. Solid early pace figures in a race lacking a ton of front-running speed.
• #8 SWING SHIFT (15-1) is a price horse and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets, expected to be part of the early pace. The distance shouldn’t be an issue.
• #6 COLD AS HELL (5-1) is likely best to put underneath on most tickets, with races good enough to beat this group.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 8 – 6

Churchill Downs- 4

Post: 2:30 PM ET; $300k Dream Supreme S. going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 6

• #5 WICKED HALO (6-5) secures the top selection, fitting well enough in this spot and proving capable of handling these conditions in previous starts.
• #4 LITTLE PRANKSTER (9-5) should be competitive in this spot, with no trouble expected from the distance. The combination of Bauer and Velazquez adds to the contender’s profile.
• #3 FIRE ON TIME (8-1) isn’t without hope, having proven capable of handling these conditions in previous starts. Solid recent performances indicate readiness for a big run here.
• #1 YOUR SO SILLEA (5-1) is likely best to put underneath on most tickets, running evenly and expected to get a very fair pace scenario. Previous success in handling these conditions strengthens the contender’s profile.

Selections: 5 – 4 – 3 – 1

Churchill Downs- 5

Post: 3:01 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 5 1/2 f on turf; Entries: 16

• #7 TAMMY LYNN (7-2) earns the top pick, expected to be part of the early pace in this spot and possessing the pedigree to be a major player.
• #4 TWO SIP SALLY (9-2) should be competitive, coming into the race in good form.
• #10 SHORE WAR (5-1) should be competitive, having proven capable of handling these conditions in previous starts. Projected to sit mid-pack and come with one run.
• #14 BARAYE (4-1) should be competitive, making sense on speed figures.

Selections: 7 – 4 – 10 – 14

Churchill Downs- 6

Post: 3:31 PM ET; $58k Maiden Claiming going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 14

• #3 GOOGOL JOKE (4-1) should improve off the first start and looks best here. Well bred for this spot, this one will likely have a lot to do in the lane but could get up with a competitive run.
• #7 SUPERHERO (6-1) debuts here and should be competitive in this spot, earning respect going out for the combination of Asmussen and Gaffalione.
• #10 LATTA (20-1) is a price horse and appears to be a major player in this race. The distance shouldn’t pose trouble, and the pedigree indicates the potential to be a major player.
• #13 ONE RED CENT (8-1) should be competitive in this spot, looking to be the class of the field. Expected to be out on or near the lead and hold off the charge to the wire.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 10 – 13

Churchill Downs- 7

Post: 4:01 PM ET; $127k Allowance going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 7

• #2 TUNISIAN SPRING (8-5) secures the top selection, having been really solid in recent starts and ready to run a big one here. The top overall power rating in the group adds to the contender’s profile.
• #1 PENSACOLA (5-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot, seeming to fit well enough here.
• #5 EASY ACTION (2-1) feels like a fringe contender in this spot, a potential dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #3 UNDERHILL’S TAB (12-1) is a price horse and isn’t without hope, having proven capable of handling these conditions in previous starts. The contender’s class and ability to handle these conditions strengthen the profile.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 5 – 3

Churchill Downs- 8

Post: 4:33 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 11

• #10 PLUMERIA (9-2) earns the top pick, with races good enough to beat this group and fitting well enough here.
• #11 CALLE REINA (5-1) appears to be a major player in this race, well bred for this spot and looking to be the class of the field.
• #5 EXTREMELY GRUNTLED (15-1) is a price horse and should be competitive in this spot, going out for the Mcpeek barn and getting Hernandez in the irons.
• #7 SAVE THE MISCHIEF (12-1) is a price horse and should be competitive in this spot, coming into the race in good form.

Selections: 10- 11- 5 – 7

Churchill Downs- 9

Post: 5:05 PM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/8 m on dirt; Entries: 10

• #7 MAGIC TAP (7-5) looks best here, with tactical speed and the ability to sit just off the leaders for a stalk-and-pounce trip. Asmussen and Gaffalione command respect for this contender.
• #10 CREATIVE MINISTER (7-2) feels like a fringe contender in this spot, having been really solid in recent starts and ready to run a big one here. Sensible on speed figures.
• #2 GALT (15-1) is a price horse and isn’t without hope, looking to be the class of the field. Running evenly, this one looks to get a very fair pace scenario.
• #1 TIWANAKU (12-1) is a price horse and isn’t without hope, fitting well enough here.

Selections: 7 – 10- 2 – 1

Churchill Downs- 10

Post: 5:35 PM ET; $300k River City S. going 1 1/8 m on turf; Entries: 15

• #11 SIEGE OF BOSTON (9-2) earns the top selection, going out for the Toner barn and getting Ruiz in the irons. Really solid in recent starts, this one should be ready to run a big one here.
• #4 ROCKEMPEROR (4-1) should be competitive in this spot, making sense on speed figures. Projected to sit mid-pack and come with one run.
• #5 KITODAN (15-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot, going out for the Foster barn and getting Achard in the irons.
• #15 STREET READY (15-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot, coming into the race in good form. Sensible on speed figures.

Selections: 11- 4 – 5 – 15

Churchill Downs- 11

Post: 6:05 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 11

• #9 GENETICS (7-2) is the top pick, appearing to be the class of the field and expected to be part of the early pace.
• #10 CARARRA (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race, potentially benefiting from a hot pace up front. Well bred for this spot.
• #5 AMERICA’S VOW (20-1) is a price horse and should be competitive in this spot, having proven capable of handling these conditions in previous starts. Could get the right setup in this race.
• #1 LOVELAND (4-1) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. Going out for the Casse barn and with Santana in the irons, this one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.

Selections: 9 – 10- 5 – 1

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In addition, Betting News will continue to provide in depth analysis of select racing cards throughout the week.

Friday

• Del Mar Opening Day featuring the Let it Ride.

Saturday

• Aqueduct featuring the Grade 2 Red Smith and the Grade 3 Pebbles Stakes.
• Churchill Downs featuring the Grade 3 River City Stakes.

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