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Churchill Downs Picks: Saturday, November 18 Analysis
Written by: Chris Adams
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
horses
Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs features the grade 3 Chilukki Stakes. The race features Hidden Connection as the morning line favorite.
Turf Troubles
2020 was supposed to be the start of a new era for Churchill Downs. The track unveiled a brand new turf course. The results have been problematic to say the least.
Initially the track had to be closed again as the grass failed to take hold. However, what was supposed to be a brief suspension of racing became an ongoing issue and the track has struggled to maintain its turf course since.
Most recently Churchill Downs had to announce that it would be reducing its turf racing due to concerns over the surface when rains came in. Given the fall weather in Kentucky there is concern that this could be an on-going issue.
Full Analysis
Churchill Downs- 1
Post: 1:00 PM ET; $42k Maiden Claiming going 5 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 7
- #6 Who’s Snow Trouble (2-1): Top selection, goes out for the Ennis barn with Saez aboard. Pedigree suggests major player status.
- #7 Tap Anchor (9-5): Major player in the race, to be respected under the combination of Asmussen and Asmussen.
- #1 Persuade (12-1): Price horse with a shot, goes out for the Corrigan barn with Lezcano in the irons.
- #3 Pleasant Destiny (8-1): Fringe contender making a debut, well-bred for this spot.
Selections: 6 – 7 – 1 – 3
Churchill Downs- 2
Post: 1:30 PM ET; $52k Claiming going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 7
- #1 Jump Into the Fire (5-2): Top pick, shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Top overall power rating in the group.
- #3 Miss Moon Pie (15-1): Price horse and a major player in the race. Likely to be part of the early pace.
- #7 Baby Gundin (6-1): Competitive contender, could get the right setup.
- #4 Keen Contender (4-1): Fringe contender, to be respected under the combination of Van and Geroux.
Selections: 1 – 3 – 7 – 4
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Churchill Downs- 3
Post: 2:00 PM ET; $50k Maiden Claiming going 7 f on dirt; Entries: 12
- #9 Stunnem (7-2): Looks best here, a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
- #11 Mirage (8-1): Fringe contender making a debut, goes out for the Brisset barn with Geroux aboard.
- #2 Bear River (3-1): Major player with the pedigree, could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
- #8 Great Richie M (12-1): Price horse, competitive option to put underneath on most tickets.
Selections: 9 – 11 – 2 – 8
Churchill Downs- 4
Post: 2:30 PM ET; $42k Maiden Claiming going 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 12
- #11 Solevo (4-1): Top selection, well-bred for this spot. Projects to sit mid-pack and come with one run.
- #2 My Uncle Frank (10-1): Price horse and competitive in this spot.
- #7 Laughinalltheway (10-1): Price horse and competitive, to be respected under Lovell and Ashton.
- #12 Pacific States (7-2): Competitive contender and looks to be the class of the field. Runs evenly and anticipates a fair pace scenario.
Selections: 11 – 2 – 7 – 12
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Churchill Downs- 5
Post: 3:01 PM ET; $127k Allowance going 5 1/2 f on turf; Entries: 15
- #6 Baie Longue (6-1): Top pick, to be respected under the combination of Mott and Geroux. Could get the right setup.
- #2 Double Clutch (5-2): Major player, may benefit from a hot pace up front. Top overall power rating in the group.
- #4 Western Command (20-1): Price horse and a major player, makes sense on speed figures. Could get the right setup.
- #9 Zartownis (15-1): Price horse and competitive. Likely to be in the first flight and in with a chance late.
Selections: 6 – 2 – 4 – 9
Churchill Downs- 6
Post: 3:31 PM ET; $72k Starter Allowance going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 7
- #4 Cat’s Cave (7-2): Looks best here, shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Could get the right setup.
- #6 Rock Star Doctor (9-2): Fringe contender, could get the right setup.
- #3 Bold Baby (6-1): Fringe contender, likely to be in the first flight and in with a chance late. Looks to be the class of the field.
- #7 Puckered (3-1): Probably best to put underneath on most tickets. Should be respected under Joseph and Gaffalione. Could get the right setup.
Selections: 4 – 6 – 3 – 7
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Churchill Downs- 7
Post: 4:01 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 14
- #3 Bedazzle ‘Em (7-2): Should improve off the first start and top selection. Proven to handle these conditions in previous starts.
- #8 Summerintahoe (10-1): Price horse and competitive. Makes sense on speed figures.
- #13 Outspoken (8-1): Fringe contender, to be respected under the combination of McCarthy and Corrales.
- #2 How Soon Is Now (6-1): Should improve off the first start and feels like a fringe contender. Well bred for this spot. Has been solid in recent starts.
Selections: 3 – 8 – 13 – 2
Churchill Downs- 8
Post: 4:33 PM ET; $54k Claiming going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 10
- #9 Magnificent Mile (3-1): Top pick, shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Races good enough to beat this group.
- #2 Sheriff Ronnie (12-1): Price horse and a major player in this race.
- #1 Fan the Fire (5-2): Competitive in this spot, makes sense on speed figures. Solid early pace figures in a race that lacks a ton of front-running speed.
- #4 Concept (5-1): Fringe contender, looks to be the class of the field. Could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
Selections: 9 – 2 – 1 – 4
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Churchill Downs- 9
Post: 5:05 PM ET; $141k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 15
- #6 Strong Quality (5-2): Looks best here, been solid in recent starts. Should be part of the early pace.
- #12 Street Ready (10-1): Price horse and a major player. Comes into the race in good form. Likely to be in the first flight and in with a chance late.
- #7 English Tavern (7-2): Competitive in this spot, goes out for the Lovell barn with Hernandez in the irons. Projects to sit mid-pack and come with one run.
- #10 Good Governance (12-1): Price horse and competitive. Should be sitting in the second tier and looking to make one well-timed run at the leaders.
Selections: 6 – 12 – 7 – 10
Churchill Downs- 10
Post: 5:35 PM ET; $300k Chilukki S. going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 9
- #1 Nostalgic (9-2): Top selection, been solid in recent starts. Races good enough to beat this group.
- #7 Falconet (4-1): Major player, proven to handle these conditions in previous starts.
- #9 Hot and Sultry (7-2): Competitive in this spot, been solid in recent starts. Seems to fit well enough.
- #3 Hidden Connection (5-2): Competitive, makes sense on speed figures.
Selections: 1 – 7 – 9 – 3
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Churchill Downs- 11
Post: 6:05 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 14
- #9 Adeleke (6-1): Should improve off the first start and top pick. Shouldn’t have trouble with the distance. Proven to handle these conditions.
- #4 Unmatched (15-1): Price horse and competitive. Runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario. Looks to be the class of the field.
- #6 Copperdrop (3-1): Should improve off the first start and probably best to put underneath on most tickets. Pedigree to be a major player.
- #13 Tap the Champagne (10-1): Price horse, probably best to put underneath on most tickets. Goes out for the Matejka barn with Achard in the irons.
Selections: 9 – 4 – 6 – 13
Betting News Horse Racing Coverage
Betting News provides AI generated handicapping tools for all of the major tracks around the country each and every day.
In addition, Betting News will continue to provide in depth analysis of select racing cards throughout the week.
Saturday
- Aqueduct Picks featuring the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes
- Churchill Downs Picks featuring the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes
- Woodbine Picks featuring the Grade 2 Kennedy Road Stakes
Sunday
- Del Mar Picks featuring the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes
Click here for more information on horse racing terminology, how to read a racing program, and how to bet on the races.
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Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.
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