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Churchill Downs Returns: Graded Stake Trio Analysis, Selections

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Churchill Downs returned on Thursday. It was the first racing since a slew of safety concerns that forced racing to move to nearby Ellis Park. Since that time the racing surface has been evaluated and cleared for racing.

Saturday’s card hopes to see the site of the Kentucky Derby return to a celebration of racing with a trio of prominent graded stakes contests. Assuming the safety of all athletes involved, the card looks ultra competitive and a great opportunity for horse betting.

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs- Race 1

Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Purse: $92k; Maiden Special Weight, 6 f on dirt; Field: 12 Entries

#10 ACCOMMODATE EVA (5-1) appears poised for improvement after her initial start and claims the top selection. With a pedigree that suggests she can be a major player in this race, she’ll be representing the Stewart barn and guided by Gutierrez.
#1 BUTTERFLY QUEEN (4-1) is making her debut here and shouldn’t be underestimated. The combination of Maker and Gaffalione gives her a competitive edge.
#9 KRICKLE (6-1) is a solid contender in this field and seems to be the classiest of the bunch. She has shown races that are strong enough to take on this group.
#12 ALMOND FUDGE (6-1), much like our top pick, is expected to improve from her initial outing. She’s in good form and will be under the guidance of Gutierrez and Corrales, making her a respectable choice for underneath positions on most tickets.

Selections: 10 – 1 – 9 – 12

Churchill Downs- Race 2

Post Time: 1:14 PM ET; Purse: $120k; Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/8 miles on turf; Field: 9 Entries

#3 FAYETTE SPIRIT (5-2) leads our selections as the top pick. Representing the Medina barn and with Torres in the saddle, this contender could prove to be a formidable threat, especially if allowed to control the pace.
#8 SINGLE DOT YAHT (2-1) stands out as a major contender in this race. His ability to handle the distance is unquestionable, and he, too, could pose a significant front-running threat.
#7 REAL NAUGHTY (4-1) should not be underestimated in this competitive field, as he appears to be the classiest of the lot.
#9 ARCHIE THE GIZA (4-1) is another contender to consider, and while he may need a strong late kick, he’s capable of delivering a competitive performance.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 7 – 9

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Churchill Downs- Race 3

Post Time: 1:43 PM ET; Purse: $120k; Maiden Special Weight, 6 f on dirt; Field: 16 Entries

#9 MANAGING MISCHIEF (9-2) stands as our top selection, expected to improve from her debut. With performances strong enough to outclass this field and solid early pace figures, she holds a significant advantage.
#1 MYSTICAL CHANT (3-1) is a major player in this race, boasting impressive speed figures that make her a logical choice.
#14 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET (7-2) makes her debut here and is worth considering, especially under the guidance of Cox and Prat.
#10 LIFE ADVICE (4-1), also making her debut, is a contender to place underneath on most tickets.

Selections: 9 – 1 – 14 – 10

Churchill Downs- Race 4

Post Time: 2:13 PM ET; Purse: $300k; Louisville Thoroughbred Society S., 6 f on dirt; Field: 6 Entries

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#3 STROBE (6-5) is our top selection, coming in with strong performances capable of defeating this field. Expect this one to be a prominent frontrunner.
#4 BANGO (1-1) is a formidable contender in this spot, having previously demonstrated an ability to handle these conditions.
#6 NECKER ISLAND (8-1) is a fringe contender but has displayed consistency in recent starts and appears to be in good form.
#5 GULFSTREAM WAY (6-1) is not without hope and makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 6 – 5

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Churchill Downs- Race 5

Post Time: 2:45 PM ET; Purse: $72k; Claiming, 7 f on dirt; Field: 8 Entries

#2 DEBATE (5-2) is our top pick, entering the race in solid recent form and poised for a strong performance.
#6 UNDERHILL’S TAB (7-2) is a major player in this race, likely the classiest of the field.
#1 QUICK HAMMER (3-1) should be competitive and deserves respect, representing the combination of Cox and Corrales.
#8 MAGNIFICENT MILE (8-1) should not be overlooked, going out for the Contreras barn and with Esquivel in the saddle.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 1 – 8

Churchill Downs- Race 6

Post Time: 3:18 PM ET; Purse: $300k; Open Mind S., 6 f on dirt; Field: 6 Entries

#2 WICKED HALO (3-5) stands as the top choice, with a strong recent form and a high probability of hitting the board in this race.
#1 YUUGIRI (3-1) is a fringe contender, likely to run evenly and benefit from a fair pace scenario.
#3 FIRE ON TIME (7-2) should be considered for underneath positions on most tickets, as she seems to fit well in this field and has no trouble with the distance.
#4 MORE THAN VOWS (12-1) is a price horse and could contend for minor placings with consistent pace figures in a moderately paced race.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4

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Churchill Downs- Race 7

Post Time: 3:50 PM ET; Purse: $300k; Pocahontas S., 1 mile on dirt; Field: 9 Entries

#7 YOUALMOSTHADME (2-1) earns the top selection, boasting consistent pace figures and likely to be near the lead. This one will attempt to hold off challengers to the wire.
#1 EMPIRE ISLAND (5-1) should improve from her first start and remains competitive. She also has consistent pace figures, making her a contender in this race.
#6 V V’S DREAM (5-2) is a strong contender, expected to sit mid-pack and come with a late run. Previous performances suggest she can handle these conditions.
#9 HOT BEACH (7-2) is likely best for underneath positions, running evenly and benefiting from a fair pace scenario. Representing the Lynch barn and ridden by Prat, she’s worth consideration.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 6 – 9

Churchill Downs- Race 8

Post Time: 4:22 PM ET; Purse: $127k; Allowance, 1 mile on turf; Field: 15 Entries

#6 EMPIRICAL VIEW (9-2) is the top pick, arriving in excellent form. She runs evenly and is positioned to benefit from a fair pace scenario.
#4 GRACE DARLING (8-1) is a major player in this race and could make a competitive late charge.
#7 HAY STACK (7-2) is another major contender, making sense on speed figures. She, too, may come on strong in the late stages.
#10 WATCH THIS BIRDIE (6-1) is likely to sit mid-pack and make a well-timed run, making her a competitive choice.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 7 – 10

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Churchill Downs- Race 9

Post Time: 4:55 PM ET; Purse: $300k; Iroquois S., 1 mile on dirt; Field: 9 Entries

#8 RISK IT (2-1) is our top choice, expected to improve from her first start and appearing best suited for this race. She should have no trouble with the distance.
#1 LIBERAL ARTS (20-1) is a longshot with potential, having previously demonstrated an ability to handle these conditions.
#3 UNION ROLL (5-1) is expected to improve and may benefit from a hot pace up front.
#2 WEST SARATOGA (8-1) is a contender to consider for underneath positions, having previously demonstrated an ability to handle these conditions.

Selections: 8 – 1 – 3 – 2

Churchill Downs- Race 10

Post Time: 5:26 PM ET; Purse: $400k; Locust Grove S., 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Field: 11 Entries

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#3 LE DA VIDA (7-2) claims the top selection, expected to handle the distance without issue. She has previously demonstrated an ability to handle these conditions.
#4 SEARCH RESULTS (3-1) is a major player in this race and should have no trouble with the distance. With the Brown barn and Gaffalione in the irons, she’s a strong contender.
#7 A MO REAY (5-1) is another contender to consider, making sense on speed figures and representing the combination of Cox and Prat.
#2 PAULINE’S PEARL (5-1) should be competitive, likely to sit in the second tier of runners and make a well-timed move. She runs evenly and benefits from a fair pace scenario.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 7 – 2

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Churchill Downs- Race 11

Post Time: 5:58 PM ET; Purse: $120k; Maiden Special Weight, 6 f on dirt; Field: 16 Entries

#15 MIA MARCELA (6-1) is our top selection, expected to improve from her debut and well-suited for the distance. She has previously shown an ability to handle these conditions.
#1 INTRICATE (5-1) is making her debut and is a fringe contender in this field. She carries a strong pedigree for this race.
#10 REGULATORY RISK (2-1) is also making her debut and should not be underestimated, especially with the combination of Brown and Prat. She, too, possesses a strong pedigree.
#11 HIGH SHOT (15-1) is a longshot but is worth considering for underneath positions. She has demonstrated performances strong enough to challenge this group and can handle these conditions.

Selections: 15 – 1 – 10 – 11

Betting News Horse Racing Coverage

Betting News provides AI generated handicapping tools for all of the major tracks around the country each and every day, including Churchill Downs which reopens on Thursday.

In addition, Betting News will continue to provide in depth analysis of select cards throughout the week. This week’s analysis will feature the cards listed below.

Saturday

Belmont at the Big A featuring the Grade 3 Turf Jockey Club Oaks
Churchill Downs featuring the Grade 3 Iroquois, Grade 3 Locust Grove, and Grade 3 Pocahontas
Woodbine featuring the Grade 1 Natalma, Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, Grade 1 Summer Stakes, and Grade 3 Vigil stakes. The three grade 1 races are all “Win and You’re in” races for the Breeders’ Cup.

Sunday

Woodbine featuring the Grade 3 Seaway Stakes.

Click here for more information on horse racing terminology, how to read a racing program, and how to bet on the races.

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Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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Churchill Downs Returns: Graded Stake Trio Analysis, Selections