Churchill Downs Saturday 11/13: Dream Supreme Stakes Analysis

The Churchill November meet rolls on with the running of the Dream Supreme Stakes. Bell’s the One and Sconsin headline the field of seven.

Churchill Downs Saturday Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $75,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#5 ALBERTA SUN is favored and seems to have a distinct edge in speed figures. #3 HEART FULL OF SOUL goes out for Mac Robertson and Francisco Arrieta. #6 OFF WE GO is at a nice price and may be the class of the field. #7 BIZZY ECHO gets Joel Rosario aboard who is one of the best jocks in the country.

Selections: 5-3-6-7

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post: 1:30 PM ET; Purse: $75,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

#3 RING ME DARLING will be a tough beat here based on speed figures and class. #2 SURF SPA showed well in the previous try at the the distance. #4 ANNAGANGSTA has solid bloodlines and will go out for the red hot Brad Cox barn. #7 NANA'S GRAY is at odds of 6-1 and is the stablemate of the #4.

Selections: 3-2-4-7

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post: 2:00 PM ET; Purse: $148,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 5

#2 RUSHIE goes out for the same trainer who brought Ce Ce home for an upset victory in the Breeder’s Cup. It’s always a good sign when the barn is firing. #3 SOUTH BEND has been in good form and looks solid on speed figures. #1 TITLE READY may have the stamina to get by them late. #4 INDIMAAJ is an interesting longshot at a huge price for Diodoro and Cohen.

Selections: 2-3-1-4

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post: 2:30 PM ET; Purse: $52,000 Starter Allowance, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 LADY MCKENZIE comes in with good figures and the form that suggests she is capable of running at her best. #1 DIVA BANKER has class and could find herself on the front end if no one else wants to go early. #4 GIANNA'S GIFT is at odds of 3-1 and has won at this distance before. #5 ABSOLUTE LOVE and hasn’t done anything wrong of late.

Selections: 6-1-4-5

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post: 3:03 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#6 BERAVINA could be an upsetter based on ratings. #3 LADY ARSINOE has the edge on those that have a start under their belt in almost every statistical category. #2 ICY STARE DOWN looks to be training well coming into the race. #5 BULLET ON TAP could get the best of the pace setup and look to spring the upset.

Selections: 6-3-2-5

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post: 3:36 PM ET; Purse: $75,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#3 CHARTER OAK looks good on paper, but will have to close to win today and that has been tough at Churchill so far. #8 AIN'T STRAIGHT could be a little bit more forwardly placed and does have the best figures in the group. #7 COUNTRIFIED has hit the board at this distance. #2 INGERSOLL is at odds of 15-1 will try to scoot away to wire the field.

Selections: 3-8-7-2

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post: 4:06 PM ET; Purse: $134,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#4 SONG RIVER is 5-2 and comes in on the back of a great form cycle. #1 MISS T TOO is at odds of 2-1 and will combine speed figures and early pace to try and get the job done here. #2 MISS MOSAIC has kept good company before coming here. #5 PERFECT HAPPINESS will look to get the best of being out on the early lead.

Selections: 4-1-2-5

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post: 4:36 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

#3 SURFER DUDE is well bred for the conditions and does have the experience to make good things happen. #7 SEAL BEACH will be the play of speed and class players. #9 HORNBEAM is unproven, but the connections instill confidence. #10 EPICENTER will be wide early but Rosario can get him to the front early and hope to lead them swinging for home.

Selections: 3-7-9-10

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post: 5:06 PM ET; Purse: $127,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#3 GIRL WITH A DREAM is the class of the field and goes out for Brad Cox. #5 LADY DANAE will be on the lead early and should be competitive based on speed figures. #6 MABEE LUCKYNWILD is at odds of 15-1 and is interesting to fill out exotics if she stays at that price. #7 PIPELINE GIRL is in good form and could spring the minor upset here. Amoss just won the final thoroughbred race at Indiana Grand so maybe that suggests a surge coming.

Selections: 3-5-6-7

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post: 5:36 PM ET; Purse: $300,000 Dream Supreme S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

If #6 BELL'S THE ONE runs her best, this one could be tough to beat. #7 FRANK'S ROCKETTE has the advantage of being out closer to the lead than the other highly regarded runners in the field. #5 CLUB CAR is at odds of 4-1 and has run well coming into today’s race. #4 SCONSIN is a grinder and if the pace is coming back to her she may be able to get up for it.

Selections: 6-7-5-4 (Best Bet: #6)

Churchill Downs Race 11

Post: 6:06 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

#1 ALMANZO is at odds of 3-1 and is bred to be good here today. #4 CALL ME MIDNIGHT has the speed figures early in the career to suggest he could win this race. #8 QUICK TO BLAME and is interesting at 6-1. #7 LOONSHOT is a moonshot, but has the best stamina and experience against a group that is lacking. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one up in the number.

Selections: 1-4-8-7

Loss of a Great Stallion

The racing world was saddened this week to learn of the passing of English Channel. The horse succumbed to an illness on November 11th at the age of 19. While a great runner himself, his recent success had come throwing talented turf runners that can be found throughout the U.S. circuit. A full list of accomplishments can be found on Equibase.