Keeneland Analysis: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes

Saturday’s 8th race at Keeneland is the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The race is for 3 year old fillies and will be run at a route on the turf course.

Keeneland Track Profile

The Keeneland meet is not as long as some of the other premier meets around the country. This means that players need to pick up on trends quickly to take full advantage.

Post Positions at Keeneland

So far in the meet there has been a strong advantage for horses starting from post positions 4, 5 and 6. These posts are winning at around 40% of all races and are the dominant post position in all race types except dirt routes. Dirt routes show an advantage to inside runners (posts 1, 2, and 3).

Run Style

Early in the meet early speed also seems to be a huge advantage which is not unsurprising. Prior to racing on Thursday of this week 17 out of 39 races were won by horses within 1 length of the lead at the first call. If you broaden the numbers out to be within 3 lengths of the lead, the number jumps to 26 of 39 winners.

The only condition that has shown a top run style other than on the lead is turf routes which show that mid pack horses have done slightly better than those on the lead.

Keeneland Saturday Analysis

Race 1- Start of the Keeneland Early Pick 5

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $35,000 Waiver Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#6 FREER comes in with the top overall rating in the group. #3 DEVIL'S TOWER is the favorite and goes out for top connections. #7 JOVIAL has done little wrong lately and has to be considered a threat. #1 SCAT SHACK comes into the race in great form and if the race chalks out on top, may be the right player to juice up vertical plays.

Selections: 6-3-7-1

Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $37,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 12

#11 ASHWINS ORB is 8-1 but could get the perfect setup here. No one in the group has won before so I don’t mind taking shots here. #8 GIANT NOVA is another long shot who hasn’t done anything to suggest he can’t win today. #4 FLAGSTONE has run against some decent horses and could provide a big upset as well. #3 AIN'T THAT A KICK is at odds of 8-1 and has the best speed figures in the group.

Betting Note: I am usually anti-exacta box on your top 4 selections, but the #6 is a Wesley Ward at Keeneland and is going to get hammered. I am not using the horse so If I hit with the prices of these horses the $12 investment of a 4 horse box will come back to me with plenty to spare. This is one of the few times a player can be more willing to use such an inefficient wager.

Selections: 11-8-4-3

Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 15

#10 GRAND SONATA goes out for top Keeneland connections and has the top speed figures early in the group to this point. #12 SPIN WHEEL has been running against solid horses and could find today’s foes a touch more comfortable. #3 VERBIER goes out for Cox and Geroux. #13 PRAYFORPEACE will need to get in via scratch, but is interesting at 10-1 on the morning line.

Selections: 10-12-3-13

Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $33,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#4 AFLEET DIVA is at odds of 2-1 race flow. #1 TARANTA is at odds of 8-1 speed figures class ratings. #7 MAMA LOU is at odds of 5-1 connections. #5 LICHITA is at odds of 5-1 pace form

Selections: 4-1-7-5

Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $56,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

#4 PIONEER SPIRIT has the top overall rating in the group according to Brisnet Prime Power. #8 AMERICAN TATTOO is a long shot who shouldn’t be overlooked. #2 PALACE COUP could get a really nice setup here. #1 LORD DRAGON comes in with the top speed figures in the group to this point.

Selections: 4-8-2-1

Race 6- Start of the Keeneland Late Pick 5 & All Turf Pick 3

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 15

This race kicks off the Keeneland All Turf Pick 3. #4 CURBSTONE is at odds of 2-1 looks like a tough one to beat with speed figures and recent class that make him a solid top choice. #9 CAMP DAVID is 12-1 for Brisset and Jose Ortiz. #11 WICKED GENIUS is the one most likely to handle the distance here. #10 FAITH RUNNER is one I will be watching on the board. If money is coming in, I may jump on the train as well.

Selections: 4-9-11-10

Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7

#2 SOVEREIGN APPEAL has a ton of advantages over this field. Often having a race under your belt can be a distinct advantage in these maiden special weight events. #5 STREET MISSY is another that looks good on paper. #1 BIG CITY MOMMA gets Gaffalione in the saddle which is a huge asset on turf. #3 SOUTH GEORGIA is an interesting vertical player to add some value.

Selections: 2-5-1-3

Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. Presented by Dixiana, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 10

In the Keeneland feature #4 EMPRESS JOSEPHINE looks extremely tough to beat in this spot. She has most of the metrics squarely in her corner. #3 SHANTISARA will have to be respected going out for Chad Brown who has been using Prat as his top jock a lot lately when Irad is not available. #2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS comes into the race in good form. #7 LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE and will need a good set up to get the job done here.

Selections: 4-3-2-7 (Best Bet: #4)

Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

#4 WINTER POOL has been cycling up to this performance. #1 MALIBU STAR is proven at the distance and could score at a nice price. #9 MR. TIP is not without a shot and favorite #5 DUCALE comes in with the top speed figures in the group.

Selections: 4-1-9-5

Race 10

Post: 5:48 PM ET; Purse: $88,000 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 16

#15 SONG RIVER needs a little help to get in, but has been running well of late. #11 RECODED is a horse at a price that could be sitting on a big one and pull the upset. #13 REAGAN'S EDGE remains on the also eligible list but looks good based on speed figures. # SOCIAL CHATTER is proven at the distance and if the AE’s don’t get in, this one becomes a major player.

Selections: 15-11-13-1