Keeneland Blue Grass Stakes Likely Under Sloppy Conditions

The 2nd day of the Keeneland meet will feature the Blue Grass Stakes. With plenty of rain in the forecast, there is a good chance that off track runners will like the going.

Massive Blunder Kicks Off the Meet

People love Keeneland for a lot of reasons. It is a beautiful track in the heart of horse country. It features some top flight two year old races that introduce the sport to the future stars of the game. The sales ring a the track has produced many champions across the country. Regardless the racing world goes goo-goo for Keeneland.

Monumental Error

Five races in on the first card from Keeneland there was a turf contest. The final order of finish was clearly 3-9-8-10. However, when the result was posted as official, the 8 and 9 were switched around. Patrons cashed tickets and online accounts were deposited.

Despite telling those who bet Mandaloun that “official means official” in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, Keeneland issued a correction. Players who had cashed on the wrong order in person got off scot free while those who were slow to cash were left out. The race was repriced and those who had the correct combination were allowed to claim their winnings provided they still had the ticket.

Online Players Not So Lucky

While the people who had been incorrectly paid on site walked off with their cash, online players suffered a different fate. Despite having money deposited in their accounts for the incorrect combination, the money was removed by the wagering companies and placed into the accounts of players with the correct combination.

The Fringe Issue

If this had happened in other sports wagering market, their would be outcry from the public for reform and the elimination of this type of Mickey Mouse error that should have easily been caught before making the race official. The reality is that horse racing gets away with this nonsense because it is a fringe spot with a niche following.

If horse racing wants to become a major player in sports betting, it needs to stop getting in its own way with amateurs mistakes like the scratch-unscratch of Modern Games in the Breeders’ Cup and the posting and semi-payment of the wrong wager at Keeneland. This is not the way to attract new wagering dollars.

Blue Grass Stakes Analysis

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:10 PM ET; Purse: $1,000,000 Toyota Blue Grass S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

In my opinion there is a very small chance the Kentucky Derby champion is running in this race.

• #1 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (12-1) makes sense based on the company this one has kept. Perhaps this one can spring the upset today.
• #10 SMILE HAPPY (9-5) makes sense based on speed figures, but I’m just not sold that this one is the right one in this spot. If he wins I won’t be shocked, but he is a player here.
• #4 ZANDON (5-2) is well bred to be a really effective dirt router.
• #11 BLACKADDER (20-1) should be involved from the onset and maybe he can get the job done.

Selections: 1-10-4-11

Saturday Blue Grass Full Card Analysis

Keeneland Race 1

Post: 12:30 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 16

• #16 BRIGADIER GENERAL (6-1) is a major player based on speed figures. This one will need a lot of help to get in and will have a tough trip even if that occurs, but I like this runner.
• #12 ENOUGH ALREADY (4-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #5 CREATIVE MINISTER (3-1) should be a factor from the inside portion of the draw. This one will be forward and that’s never a bad thing.
• #14 WARRIOR JOHNY (6-1) has the speed figures and recency to be a player, but is another unfortunate victim of a wide draw.

Selections: 16-12-5-14

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:03 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 16

• #14 EXACT ESTIMATE (7-2) should be competitive based on the breeding. However, once again my top pick gets marooned in the wide gates.
• #6 BOURBON HEIST (7-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & class.
• #16 CAPE TRAFALGAR (3-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers.
• #8 RAISEDAROOFCHARLIE (12-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.

Selections: 14-6-16-8

Keeneland Race 3

Post: 1:36 PM ET; Purse: $110,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 16

• #8 MILLEFEUILLE (7-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #12 FINAL BELLE (9-2) has speed figures that stack up well against this group.
• #5 NEVISIAN SUNRISE (3-1) is a major player based on speed figures and the inside draw which should give her a bit more of a ground saving trip than the top two selections.
• #11 PRINTER'S ROW (20-1) likes the turf mile and maybe can be a factor to hit the board here.

Selections: 8-12-5-11 (BEST BET: #8 MILLEFEUILLE)

Keeneland Race 4

Post: 2:10 PM ET; Purse: $110,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

• #10 IRON WORKS (3-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & record at the distance.
• #11 COVER ME UP (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
• #9 MACALLAN (4-1) should be close early and has proven dangerous at this distance.
• #4 LIFE IS A BANQUET (15-1) could get the right set up to hit the board here.

Selections: 10-11-9-4

Keeneland Race 5

Post: 2:45 PM ET; Purse: $300,000 Commonwealth S., 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

• #5 NASHVILLE (1-1) is a horse that I just can’t get enough of. I had money on this one in the debut where he lit up the field and looked like the second coming of Secretariat. He hasn’t lived up to that bill, but he will continue to take my money until he is sent to stud.
• #3 SIR ALFRED JAMES (10-1) could be a sneaky player in the underneath spots.
• #8 ENDORSED (8-1) feels like the type that will hit the board in every race and rarely win. A must use on tickets but not deserving of the top spot.
• #10 PREVALENCE (5-1) has given up on Derby dreams past and looks reasonably entered here. The morning line seems like an appropriate estimation of the horse’s chances of wining today.

Selections: 5-3-8-10

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:20 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 Appalachian S. Presented by Japan Racing Association, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 8

• #7 OURAIKA (8-1) is an interesting player based on the recent company. This one could surprise in wide open turf racing at Keeneland.
• #3 SPENDARELLA (7-5) has the top speed figures and the pace of the race does seem to set up nicely.
• #8 KNEESNHIPS (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & form.
• #4 DOLCE ZEL (5-2) is a turf mile player for sure and should be included on the ticket.

Selections: 7-3-8-4

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 3:55 PM ET; Purse: $500,000 Madison S., 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 LADY ROCKET (5-2) has a great shot in the race given speed & pace numbers.
• #6 KIMARI (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance.
• #5 BELL'S THE ONE (7-2) is a hard trying type that is almost surely a factor in the top 3.
• #2 CENTER AISLE (12-1) may be the right hose to bring a little underneath value to your gimmick wagers.

Selections: 3-6-5-2

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:30 PM ET; Purse: $350,000 Shakertown S., 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 11

• #10 GOLDEN PAL (0.8-1) has looked like greatness throughout the career. It’s hard to see around this one. It is also extreme to justify a wager other than a single in the horizontals.
• #3 BARRAZA (6-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
• #5 GEAR JOCKEY (10-1) has been an extremely productive turf runner and makes some sense in this spot.
• #11 JUST MIGHT (4-1) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & form.

Selections: 10-3-5-11

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:10 PM ET; Purse: $1,000,000 Toyota Blue Grass S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

• Blue Grass Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 1-10-4-11

Keeneland Race 10

Post: 5:45 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

• #9 TABOR HALL (10-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
• #11 INTO VANISHING (5-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #10 MISS IMPERIAL (15-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
• #3 FAMILY TIME (30-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & race flow.

Selections: 9-11-10-3

Keeneland Race 11

Post: 6:20 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 16

• #11 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS (7-2) looks really well matched against this group. The outside draw is the big concern here.
• #10 MOMOS (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.
• #7 SOUPER DORMY (6-1) draws a decent spot for this spot and could be dangerous here.
• #12 STRIKER (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance & power rating.

Selections: 11-10-7-12

Betting News Free Handicapping Tools

Get handicapping assistance for each and every race at Keeneland. The Betting News handicapping tools are easy to use and completely free.