Keeneland Thursday 10/28: Analysis and Selections

Only 3 racing days remain at the Keeneland fall meet. Thursday’s card is mostly of lower class levels. The unpredictability can provide great value.

Keeneland Thursday Analysis

Keeneland Race 1- Early Pick 5

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $37,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#8 EXTREME is a heavy favorite on the morning line and looks on metrics to have this field over a barrel. That being said heavy favorites in maiden claiming races are always a dicey proposition. #2 WINDCRACKER is another at a short price and may have the foundation to carry the 6 1/2 furlong distance. #4 MY MIRACLE MAN is a generous price at 10-1 and based on the horses he’s run against, he wouldn’t be a shocker here. This one probably offers the best value in the race. #5 HURRY ON OUT is at odds of 20-1 and has competed at the distance in the past.

Selections: 8-2-4-5

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $38,000 Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#7 DAVID'S GEM has the top speed ratings and should love the setup here. Ricardo Santana will need to find the wire first which has been a struggle at Keeneland this meet. #1 ANANROAD is at odds of 15-1 and is proven over the distance. Many horses struggle making the jump beyond a mile and 1/16th. #5 PINSON and #6 BOBBY BABY have been running really well of late and definitely should be given a look to find the winner’s circle.

Selections: 7-1-5-6

Keeneland Race 3- All Turf Pick 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

#2 LADY DE PERON looks to kick off the all turf pick 3 in chalky fashion. This one should like the way the race projects to set up on paper. #5 TROUBLE MAKING and #14 MINT EDITION are both 15-1 and present interesting upset possibilities. The former is in great form and should have plenty of foundation to outlast these runners. Meanwhile the latter has the best speed figures of the group though she will have to overcome an outside post to get the win. #7 COPACETIC gets Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle and is trained by Chad Brown. This one is in with a big shot.

Selections: 2-5-14-7

Keeneland Race 4- Pick 6

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $49,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#7 COPPER TOWN goes out for Wesley Ward and should have a nice forward position early in the race. #5 MI TRES POR CIENTO also looks good on speed figures and class. #3 NUCLEAR OPTION may get a good setup here and could spring at a bit of a price. #1 MOUNT TRAVERS is in good form as of late and could be a threat to at least hit the board.

Selections: 7-5-3-1

Keeneland Race 5- Late Pick 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

#9 ROLL BABY goes out for Asmussen and Santana and should be ready to pop at a price here. #6 FLOWER GARDEN is well bred for Brendan Walsh and could just be best here. #3 TWIRLING SAVI is at odds of 5-1 has a solid foundation and may be able outlast many of these to the wire. #11 TRICKED OUT could be an interesting player to hit the board, though I question how likely this one is to win under Cory Lanerie.

Selections: 9-6-3-11

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $93,000 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 13

#2 LADY OF LUXURY is at odds of 4-1 has proven her worth at the 5 1/2 distance and I like her to pull the minor upset. #1 BROOKE MARIE is another capable of juicing up the all turf pick 3 at 8-1. #3 ALMS is the morning line favorite of the turf runners. #5 LEAD GUITAR has faced the toughest in this group and may be able to pull the upset at 8-1.

Selections: 2-1-3-5

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, About 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14

#12 NAPA VALLEY is to the outside but has the best speed figures in the group for Geroux and Pletcher. #9 COFFEE WITH ALEX looks to have the pace edge of the field. #7 LESLIE CHOW is well bred for this spot. #3 ATLANTIC DANCER has faced tougher before entering this spot.

Selections: 12-9-7-3

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $88,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

#9 VINTAGE PRINT is the class of the field and must be respected here. #3 ABSAM has been running well and could be cycling up to a top performance in the Keeneland feature race. #7 THE LAST ZIP is an interesting price who hasn’t done anything wrong of late. #4 MUTAKATIF is at odds of 20-1 and boasts the best turf speed figures in the group.

Selections: 9-3-7-4

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $52,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14

#6 ROME is at odds of 4-1 and looks to have advantage in this spot. This one looks about as solid as they come at this level. While I don’t love Cox runners in maiden claiming, this may be a case of trying to unload some of his B string before shipping back to Churchill for their fall meet. #12 RUMBLE READY is a very generous price in this race and could run a big race. #7 STRINGS another who should be give a second look. #5 YONO presents solid value at 10-1 thought I wouldn’t want to take him much shorter than that.

Selections: 6-12-7-5 (Best Bet: #6)

Betting News Handicapping Tools

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Breeder’s Cup News and Notes

Pre-Entries

Wednesday morning will mark the official kickoff of the Breeder’s Cup when Pre-entries are released. This will confirm for bettors which horses are going entered for specific races.

Perhaps the most notable part of the pre-entries will be learning which European horses are shipping over. Euros have been a dominant force in turf routes at the 2 day festival.

The live stream of the pre-entries can be seen on TVG or on the Breeder’s Cup Website.

Baffert Officially In

Polarizing trainer Bob Baffert has agreed to the terms laid out by the Breeder’s Cup regarding extra security measures. While some applaud the stance by the Breeder’s Cup, others are questioning why the same level of scrutiny isn’t being universally applied to all trainers wishing to run in the event.

Next week Betting News will have daily coverage of the Breeder’s Cup leading into Future Stars Friday and Saturday.