Keeneland Turf Mile & Breeder’s Futurity Analysis from Keeneland

Saturday’s Keeneland races include 4 Breeder’s Cup Challenge races. These races include the Keeneland Turf Mile and the Breeder’s Futurity.

Lessons Learned from Keeneland Opening Day

Stay Close

While the track was certainly more fair than Churchill’s fall meet, one thing that persevered was the fact that front runners were more dangerous. Of the 30 horses to hit the board on opening day, only 11 were more than 2 lengths off the lead at the first call.

Smart Money

Favorites ran extremely well. The post time favorite was in the money in 9 out of the 10 opening day races. Furthermore no horse won at odds outside of 10-1. The longest priced winner was #7 in race 7 at odds of 8-1. The horse edged the favorite by a neck to earn the victory.

Good Inside Going Long

One of the most pronounced “biases” on the day was found in dirt routes. Races going one mile or longer on the main track were won exclusively by horses in the first three post positions. 7 out of the 9 runners to hit the board in these races also came from posts 1,2, or 3.

Keeneland All-Turf Pick 3

Keeneland experimented with a new bet called the all turf pick 3. The bet was a $3 minimum wager and required players to select the winners of 3 turf races in a row. The horses that one ranked first, fourth, and first in terms of post times odds. Despite the predictable results the bet paid $536.70 for a $3 wager.

Saturday’s Keeneland Analysis

Race 1- Keeneland Early Pick 5

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $35,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

#3 CAPTAIN FANTASTIC is a player here based solely on speed figures. #10 BLAKE B. is at odds of 12-1 and could be ready for a big run. #6 MO HEAT will look to be forward and could be able to hang on in the late stages. #2 MY FAVORITE UNCLE is rounding into form and could be ready to take the next step up today.

Selections: 3-10-6-2

Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#9 CIRCLE BACK JACK is 9-2 and could get the ideal set up in the race. #5 KAELY'S BROTHER has connections that make this colt a definite player. #3 COMBAT MEDAL looks well bred to run a big one in this spot. #2 LIAM THE BRAVE is 20-1 and has hit the board at the distance. I look for this one to spice up the exotics.

Selections: 9-5-3-2

Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 13

#11 JARREAU is a bit of an upset player, but looks like the class of the field. He would be a steal at 10-1. #1 KITTANSETT should get a nice pace setup to run his best race. #8 SCARLET FUSION has done nothing wrong of late and should be competitive. #12 NO SLO MO has the stamina to dink up for a spot in the number.

Selections: 11-1-8-12

Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

My best on the Keeneland card is #1 BALADI who looks tough to beat in this spot. #4 BRITAIN'S KITTEN is at odds of 5-1 and has been keeping good company. #3 SPORT PEPPER is one that may fly under the radar but could have a significant impact on the race. #7 TUANIS is ridden by Geroux for the Cox barn so leave off at your own peril.

Selections: 1-4-3-7 (Best Bet #1)

Race 5- Keeneland Pick 6

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#7 IT'S A BANG BANG, #6 SWITZER, #3 STRAVA all appear as though they might be able to take advantage of the pace scenario here. Due to their price all three can be used pretty equally on tickets. #1 JACK BACKED is at odds of 6-1 and shows the best speed figures in the group.

Selections: 7-6-3-1

Race 6- Keeneland All Stakes Pick 5 & All-Turf Pick 3 (6-8-10)

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Woodford S. Presented by TVG, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 7

If #2 GOLDEN PAL is anywhere near as good as he was last year at Keeneland, he will be tough to beat here. Others include #6 EXTRAVAGANT KID with good speed figures and #4 FIRECROW based on power ratings. #1 JOHNNY UNLEASHED could bring some value underneath the favorite in exotics and does have extremely good pace numbers.

Selections: 2-6-4-1

Race 7- Keeneland All Stakes Pick 4

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $250,000 Thoroughbred Club of America S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#1 FRANK'S ROCKETTE the class of the field. #6 BELL'S THE ONE comes in favored and just always brings a top effort. That effort will definitely make her viable here. #4 ESTILO TALENTOSO is co-second choice and could run a good one here, but I have as a definite third. #3 INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ has been in good form of late and if I’m going deeper on the ticket I’d rather include one at this price.

Selections: 1-6-4-3

Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $400,000 First Lady S. Presented by UK HealthCare, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

#9 BLOWOUT is at odds of 8-1 for Chad Brown. That price on a Brown runner is always worth a shot. #8 HARVEY'S LIL GOIL has the top speed figures in the group and in general is just one of my favorite horses. #13 VIADERA’s price is likely mostly due to post, but she has runs good enough. #10 PRINCESS GRACE has been running well enough of late and may just be sitting on a big one.

Selections: 9-8-13-10

Race 9

Post: 5:15 PM ET; Purse: $500,000 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

#12 KEVIN'S FOLLY is at odds of 12-1 and has the best class in the young career. The board is pretty wide open so 12-1 isn’t as long of a price as it seems. #5 DON'T WAIT UP gets a hall of fame jockey in the saddle. #13 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY will have to overcome the post but isn’t hopeless. #3 STELLAR TAP is looking for a bounce back performance and the success of the connections suggest that is in the realm of possibility.

Selections: 12-5-13-3

Race 10

Post: 5:46 PM ET; Purse: $750,000 Keeneland Turf Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

#13 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN will be playing catch me if you can and I’m betting on that they cannot. #10 ORDER OF AUSTRALIA is a bit shorter than he was when running in the Breeder’s Cup last year at Keeneland, but definitely has to be respected. #6 IVAR and #7 PIXELATE are both interesting for backup tickets as outside win candidates.

Selections: 13-10-6-7

Race 11

Post: 6:20 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 11

Closing out the Keeneland card I like #7 GIANT GAME is at odds of 4-1 who has the top speed ratings in the group. #6 SURFER DUDE is in great form of late. #10 LET MY PEOPLE GO may end up being the class of the field. #4 CALL ME MIDNIGHT has speed figures on par with the #7 and has a solid foundation to rely on late in the race.

Selections: 7-6-10-4