Kentucky Derby Picks: Saturday Churchill Downs Analysis

The fastest two minutes in sports takes place this Saturday at Churchill Downs. Check out our Kentucky Derby picks for the entire card.

Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 1

Post: 10:30 AM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 6 1/2 f on dirt; Entries: 8

• #3 TOP GUN ROCKET (5-1) gets the top selection. He’s been solid in recent starts and should be ready for a big performance.
• #5 LOU’S LEGACY (6-1) is a competitive runner with the pedigree to be a major player in this field.
• #6 HOUSE UNITED (5-1) should improve off the first start and is expected to be in contention here.
• #1 EVAN ON EARTH (3-1) also has a shot in this race and is considered one of the top contenders.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 6 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 2

Post: 11:01 AM ET; $134k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 11

• #6 SCYLLA (6-5) gets the top selection, likely benefiting from a strong pace. She’s solid at this distance. Bet today’s best Best Bet at BetUS.
• #8 COPPA GIRL (4-1) has a chance with Cox and Geroux and could benefit from the pace scenario.
• #4 STEEL RACER (8-1) is a front-runner expected to be in contention late in the race.
• #10 SECRET STATEMENT (10-1) is a price horse with a good late kick, also in contention.

Selections: 6 – 8 – 4 – 10

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 3

Post: 11:31 AM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 11

• #11 MINDFRAME (2-1) is expected to improve and gets the top selection for this race.
• #9 INVIGORATED (9-2) is likely to improve off the first start and is a solid contender.
• #2 CORNISHMAN (5-1) is aiming for minor placings with the Cox-Geroux team.
• #10 MENA (20-1) is a price horse proven at this distance and conditions.

Selections: 11 – 9 – 2 – 10

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 4

Post: 12:04 PM ET; $200k Knicks Go Overnight S. presented by L&N Federal Credit Union going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 11

• #6 BEST ACTOR (5-2) is the top selection with a favorable race setup.
• #1 STRONG QUALITY (4-1) is a competitive runner and should be in the mix.
• #2 DENINGTON (6-1) is a fringe contender and might benefit from a hot pace.
• #7 KUPUNA (6-1) is a solid contender at this distance and has been performing well recently.

Selections: 6 – 1 – 2 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 5

Post: 12:36 PM ET; $600k Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. presented by Sentient Jet going 5 1/2 f on turf; Entries: 17

• #4 MOTORIOUS (7-2) gets the top selection, running against quality competition.
• #8 MISCHIEF MAGIC (4-1) is a major player with strong connections.
• #10 BIG INVASION (5-1) is another major player with a strong late kick.
• #12 ARREST ME RED (10-1) is a competitive price horse based on speed figures.

Selections: 4 – 8 – 10 – 12

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 6

Post: 1:14 PM ET; $1000k Derby City Distaff S. presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery going 7 f on dirt; Entries: 10

• #10 VAHVA (3-1) gets the top selection for this race, known for consistent performances.
• #7 ALVA STARR (5-2) is a major contender with no trouble at this distance.
• #1 THREE WITCHES (8-1) is expected to be competitive, projecting to come with a strong late run.
• #2 OLIVIA DARLING (10-1) is a price horse with tactical speed and stalking ability.

Selections: 10 – 7 – 1 – 2

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 7

Post: 1:56 PM ET; $750k Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. going 1 m on turf; Entries: 12

• #7 EVVIE JETS (6-1) is the top selection, solid in recent starts and ready for a big race. Bet the longshot play of the card at BetOnline.
• #3 CHILI FLAG (4-1) is a strong closer who could benefit from a fast pace.
• #8 HEAVENLY SUNDAY (6-1) is expected to be competitive based on speed figures.
• #1 AG BULLET (5-1) is another competitive runner, not to be overlooked.

Selections: 7 – 3 – 8 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 8

Post: 2:46 PM ET; $600k Pat Day Mile S. presented by SAP going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 12

• #7 WHO DEY (10-1) is a price horse and the top selection in this race, proven in similar conditions.
• #12 NASH (3-1) is a major player with strong ratings.
• #1 CARBONE (10-1) is a competitive price horse expected to benefit from the race setup.
• #2 BEELINE (10-1) is another price horse in good form coming into the race.

Selections: 7 – 12 – 1 – 2

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 9

Post: 3:40 PM ET; $600k American Turf S. presented by TwinSpires going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 17

• #14 AGATE ROAD (5-1) gets the top selection, consistent and ready for a strong performance.
• #6 NEAT (6-1) will be competitive and has shown solid recent form.
• #7 STAY HOT (10-1) is a price horse with good past performances.
• #10 SET (10-1) is another price horse with tactical speed.

Selections: 14 – 6 – 7 – 10

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 10

Post: 4:31 PM ET; $1000k Churchill Downs S. presented by Ford going 7 f on dirt; Entries: 11

• #11 HOIST THE GOLD (7-2) is the top selection, running good races in this field.
• #2 TEJANO TWIST (4-1) will be competitive based on recent solid starts.
• #6 ZOZOS (3-1) is another competitive runner with strong recent form.
• #9 THREE TECHNIQUE (10-1) is a price horse capable of handling this distance.

Selections: 11 – 2 – 6 – 9

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 11

Post: 5:27 PM ET; $1000k Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S. going 1 1/8 m on turf; Entries: 11

• #6 I’M VERY BUSY (4-1) is the top selection with strong power ratings.
• #5 PROGRAM TRADING (9-2) is a major contender, well-suited to this distance.
• #11 NAVAL POWER (7-2) is another major player, capable of handling these conditions.
• #1 INTEGRATION (5-1) will be competitive and makes sense based on speed figures.

Selections: 6 – 5 – 11 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 12

Post: 6:57 PM ET; $5000k Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve going 1 1/4 m on dirt; Entries: 22

• #17 FIERCENESS (5-2) is the top selection, considered the class of the field. It’s hard to argue with this one after the running in the Florida Derby.
• #19 RESILIENCE (20-1) is a price horse that looks competitive in this spot.
• #20 SOCIETY MAN (50-1) is a long shot but looks to benefit from the race setup.
• #8 JUST A TOUCH (10-1) isn’t without hope and has shown solid recent performances.

Selections: 17 – 19 – 20 – 8

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 13

Post: 8:00 PM ET; $127k Allowance Optional Claiming going 7 f on dirt; Entries: 16

• #9 GENERAL PARTNER (2-1) is the top selection, running strong races of late.
• #2 DISCREET MISCHIEF (5-2) will be competitive and likely to be in the mix late.
• #13 PIRATE (12-1) is a price horse with the potential to surprise.
• #7 JEFFERSON STREET (7-2) makes sense based on speed figures and recent form.

Selections: 9 – 2 – 13 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Kentucky Derby Day – Race 14

Post: 8:35 PM ET; $120k Maiden Special Weight going 1 m on dirt; Entries: 12

• #1 DIVE BOMBER (9-5) is the top selection, expected to handle the distance well.
• #3 GUN PARTY (7-2) isn’t without hope and is likely to make a late charge.
• #12 TIMEOUT (6-1) should improve and has a competitive chance.
• #11 FRACTURE (12-1) is a price horse capable of surprising.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 12 – 11

Churchill Downs Derby Week Coverage

Stay up to date on all the latest action from Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week with Betting News including

• Kentucky Derby Post Position Analysis
• Kentucky Oaks Analysis from Churchill Downs
• Kentucky Derby Analysis from Churchill Downs
• Best Kentucky Derby Prop Bets
• BetOnline Kentucky Derby Contest Strategy