Oaklawn Park Rebel Stakes Analysis: Road to the Kentucky Derby

The Rebel Stakes will be run on Saturday at Oaklawn Park. The race is middle leg of the Arkansas triple crown and part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Although a popular prep race for many Derby hopefuls, the Rebel has failed to produce a winner on the first Saturday in May in the last 7 years. The last to win the Rebel Derby double was in 2015 when eventual triple crown winner American Pharoah prepped in Arkansas.

Oaklawn Park- Race 1

Post: 12:00 PM CT; $90k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 13

• #3 UNCLE SHORTYS GIRL (4-1) should improve off the first start and should be able to handle the distance with a race under the belt.
• #10 SASSY LASS (6-1) has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #12 BE BO (8-1) has to be respected going out for the combination of Moquett and Bejarano. Second time starters can take big steps forward
• #1 SOPHIE'S STAR (20-1) draws the rail and could be one to surprise. This one is definitely a better play underneath, but could be more competitive than the line suggests.

Selections: 3 – 10- 12- 1

Oaklawn Park- Race 2

Post: 12:32 PM CT; $51k Starter Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 JOLLY TOMMY (6-1) is the top pick. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #8 SAQEEL (2-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has the top overall power rating in the group. Diodoro is tough to ignore in any race at Oaklawn
• #4 GREATHEART (9-5) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #6 ICARUS (8-1) shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/16 mile distance. At or around the morning line, this one feels like good value.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 4 – 6

Oaklawn Park- Race 3

Post: 1:03 PM CT; $106k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 8

• #5 CADDO RIVER (3-1) looks best here. At one point this horse was among the favorites for the Derby. He’s fallen a long way since then, but seems to fit here on his best day.
• #1 FROSTED GRACE (2-1) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Diodoro and Torres.
• #8 MAX PLAYER (5-1) is another recognizable name from past hype but this spot seems to be a reasonable spot for him to be in the mix.
• #6 THOMAS SHELBY (4-1) should be part of the early pace in this spot. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 8 – 6

Oaklawn Park- Race 4

Post: 1:34 PM CT; $90k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 8

• #2 KING RUSSELL (7-2) gets the top selection. He has races good enough to beat this group.
• #1 TAHOE RUN (3-1) should be competitive in this spot. He has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #4 STORMIN ARMY (20-1) is a price horse and could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #6 SEEKING UNITY (6-5) has to be respected going out for the combination of Mcpeek and Ortiz. Sometimes in these maiden races, following the money can be the way to go.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 4 – 6

Oaklawn Park- Race 5

Post: 2:05 PM CT; $104k Allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 11

• #8 KNOCKER DOWN (2-1) is the top pick. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Cox and Ortiz.
• #5 SKELLY (8-1) seems to fit well enough here at a very fair price.
• #6 ABSOLUTE CHAOS (20-1) is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #10 GO WEST (5-2) makes sense on speed figures. This one is a good bet to hit the board in this type of race.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 6 – 10

Oaklawn Park- Race 6

Post: 2:35 PM CT; $90k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #2 FLYIN BESSIE (6-1) looks best here. She classes up well enough with these types and should have the foundation to handle the condition.
• #9 MALIBU TOAST (5-2) is definitely one to use in this spot given the recent competition.
• #8 BEAUTIFUL BOLT (3-1) debuts here at a short price for the Hartman barn which has been very hot at the meet to this point.
• #1 MARY'S BOON (12-1) runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.

Selections: 2 – 9 – 8 – 1

Oaklawn Park- Race 7

Post: 3:06 PM CT; $150k Carousel S. going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 11

• #5 YUUGIRI (2-1) gets the top selection. She has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #11 SAMURAI CHARM (3-1) makes sense on speed figures.
• #7 PRETTY BIRDIE (5-2) appears to be a major player in this race. She has races good enough to beat this group.
• #1 HAZY COMMAND (10-1) is a price horse and may benefit from a hot pace up front.

Selections: 5 – 11- 7 – 1

Oaklawn Park- Race 8

Post: 3:36 PM CT; $106k Allowance Optional Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #9 FITZPATRICK (8-1) is the top pick. He comes into the race in really good form.
• #8 ALBIZU (3-1) has races good enough to beat this group.
• #6 SPANKSTER (5-2) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #7 MUCHO (15-1) runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.

Selections: 9 – 8 – 6 – 7

Oaklawn Park- Race 9

Post: 4:07 PM CT; $106k Allowance Optional Claiming going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

• #4 OSBOURNE (8-5) looks best here. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #9 LIFE IS HARD (3-1) will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #2 GOLDEN HORNET (4-1) should be part of the early pace in this spot.
• #8 VULCAN (12-1) has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.

Selections: 4 – 9 – 2 – 8

Oaklawn Park- Race 10

Post: 4:43 PM CT; $300k Honeybee S. going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 12

• #4 GAMBLING GIRL (12-1) is a price horse and goes out for the Pletcher barn and gets Ortiz in the irons. I smell an upset
• #2 TOWHEAD (9-2) could get the right setup in this race and should have no issue with the 1 1/16 mile distance.
• #1 EFFORTLESSLYELGANT (20-1) has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
• #5 CONDENSATION (12-1) seems to fit well enough here. She’s worth a look underneath.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 1 – 5

Oaklawn Park- Race 11

Post: 5:23 PM CT; $1000k Rebel S. going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 11

• #5 GIANT MISCHIEF (5-2) is the top pick. He has races good enough to beat this group. This one goes out for the Cox barn and gets Ortiz in the irons.
• #1 VERIFYING (2-1) has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
• #7 CONFIDENCE GAME (15-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #6 REINCARNATE (7-2) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 7 – 6

Oaklawn Park- Race 12

Post: 5:53 PM CT; $90k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 14

• #14 PEARCY ROAD (8-1) looks best here. He comes into the race in really good form and has plenty of foundation. The only concern is the wide post.
• #1 SHAKE UP (8-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #2 SKYPED (9-2) looks to be the class of the field.
• #6 STUCK N SNOW (8-1) is a hunch play for horseplayers in the upper Midwest, but does have a run style that fits well at Oaklawn.

Selections: 14- 1 – 2 – 6

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