Mahoning Valley Monday: Analysis and Selections for 12/20

Mahoning Valley in Ohio will be one of just a few racetracks running this week. Many others have close up until after the holiday season.

Track Changes

Mahoning Valley can be a very profitable track despite the small pool sizes. One challenge with playing the course is the fact that it can really fluctuate in which paths are best to run in.

When the track is nice and tight it will often play to rail speed, but in recent days there has been reason to believe the track is carrying a little extra weight. This made it far more likely that horses win from the outer paths more than in and along the rail.

Using Track Profile to Maximize Bankroll

Handicappers will be wise to position their bankroll in a way that targets races later in the day. For instance I would strongly recommend against their early pick 5 which will likely require significant capital outlay before any conclusions can be reach about how the track is playing.

Multi-race players may want to save up for the Buckeye Pick 6 which begins in race 3 or the late pick 4 which begins in race 5. In both cases players can take in some data about how the track might be playing that could lead to some major upsets later in the card.

Monday Analysis

Mahoning Valley Race 1

Post: 12:45 PM ET; Purse: $16,500 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#1 MINE ALONE (7-5) looks a good favorite based on speed figures and breeding, but at this level of horse it can be hard to trust favorites. #6 BEACH AND WINE (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #4 OPHA MAY (20-1) should have a solid foundation to ensure she’s still running when others may be begging for the wire. #7 MISS CELESTE (5-2) is another horse, albeit at a short price, that looks to have a solid foundation under her.

Selections: 1-6-4-7

Mahoning Valley Race 2

Post: 1:12 PM ET; Purse: $15,800 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#1 SUGAR MAC (8-5 is worth a look here given edges in stamina & power rating. #6 OHIO CAUSE (4-1) is worth a look here given the connections & the recent form. #2 MR CHIPS (20-1) probably will come down off the morning line as he boasts some of the top early pace and speed figures in the group. #5 FOREIGN (2-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 1-6-2-5

Mahoning Valley Race 3

Post: 1:40 PM ET; Purse: $18,100 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 9

#5 RONNI’S DAY (3-1) could be dangerous based on the horse’s advantages in record at the distance & power rating. #3 DYNA’S HOLIDAY (5-1) is in with a great chance based on the class and the early pace numbers. #6 HIGH CUPPER (8-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #2 PERSEVERING HONOR (7-2) wouldn’t be a shocker to find the winner’s circle.

Selections: 5-3-6-2

Mahoning Valley Race 4

Post: 2:08 PM ET; Purse: $13,500 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#6 CENTRIST (2-1) looks really good here given the recent speed figures. #5 VALEROSO (5-2) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers. #2 GIO SAMMY (8-5) goes out for a good barn, but might be a bit hard to trust if he stays at the morning line price. #4 DON’T MATTER (10-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. At 10-1 this one is definitely worth inclusion on tickets.

Selections: 6-5-2-4

Mahoning Valley Race 5

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $11,800 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

#7 DETERMINATOR (5-1) and #1 UYEDA (7-2) are both major player based on their speed figures. #8 ZACAPA RUN (20-1) has run against solid horses and may be on the front early. If speed is holding through the first four races this one should get a major upgrade. #10 DEBDURITE (12-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 7-1-8-10

Mahoning Valley Race 6

Post: 3:04 PM ET; Purse: $23,500 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#3 BREEZY MONEY (4-1) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & pace numbers. #2 SHARKS COVE (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating. #1A PANAMANIAN TEASER (5-1) looks solid on paper and gets the benefit of a stablemate in the race. This can occasionally lead to complimentary tactics that improve at least one of the horse’s chances to win the race. #6 HEY SACH (7-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 3-2-1A-6

Mahoning Valley Race 7

Post: 3:33 PM ET; Purse: $11,800 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 KOSCIUSZKO (5-1) could upset this field just based on speed figures. #8 DIAMONDS ENJOY (6-1) has similar speed numbers to the top choice but also projects to be on or near the lead early and may just be hard to catch in the late stages. #5 ANANROAD (8-5) is in good form and has the top overall power rating. #7 TIZWAY’S WILD SON (4-1) seems a cut below the aforementioned runners but the speed figures aren’t that far off some of the other top picks.

Selections: 6-8-5-7

Mahoning Valley Race 8

Post: 4:02 PM ET; Purse: $29,600 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#8 OL’ NED (6-5) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & pace numbers. #9 VENTURE ON (6-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s foundation from previous contests. #4 CATMAN JACK (10-1) is a longshot worth including on your tickets. #6 TURBO POWER (20-1) is an absolute bomb that could blow up the vertical wagers.

Selections: 8-9-4-6 9 (Best Bet: #8 Ol’ Ned)

Betting News Handicapping Products

Mahoning Valley won’t be the only game in town on Monday. Parx, Delta Downs, Fair Grounds, and Turf Paradise are all running as well. Don’t forget to check out the Betting News free handicapping tools to help you solidify all of your Monday selections.