Oaklawn Park: Southwest Lone Chance for Derby Points on January 29

The next 6 Kentucky Derby prep races will award 10 points to the winning horse. The Southwest from Oaklawn Park is one of those races and will be run this Saturday.

Historical Significance of the Southwest

Qualifying for the Derby

The Southwest is one of the final 10 point prep races. Starting in mid February the real contenders start to emerge as prep races begin offering anywhere from 20 to 100 points to the winners. However, interestingly enough in 2021 Brooklyn Strong qualified for the Derby with only 10 points due to a number of defections from the race. He finished 15th.

Southwest as a Prep

Traditionally the Southwest at Oaklawn Park has been a fairly weak prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Only 1 horse has won the Southwest and gone on to win the Derby. That was Smarty Jones in 2004.

In 2021 the Southwest almost saw it’s second Derby winner when Essential Quality traveled the overland route to a 4th place finish. Losing by only a length while travelling significantly further than all other horses in the race, many to surmise that given a different trip Essential Quality would have been Kentucky Derby champion. Nevertheless the count of Southwest/Derby champions remains at 1.

Oaklawn Stakes Analysis

There are 3 stakes races on the 11 race program this Saturday.

For all analysis in this piece PP has been used to precede the horse’s post position. Arkansas does couple entries so there is a chance that these will not match the program number used to bet on the horse. For accuracy, please confirm numbers closer to race day at Equibase.com.

Oaklawn Park Race 4- Martha Washington Stakes

Post: 1:32 PM CT; Purse: $200,000 Martha Washington S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

PP6 SECRET OATH is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. PP1 HYPERSPORT is worth a look here given edges in form & pace numbers. PP4 OPTIONALITY merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & record at the distance. PP3 COMO SQUARE has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 6-1-4-3

Oaklawn Park Race 9- Southwest Stakes

Post: 4:22 PM CT; Purse: $750,000 Southwest S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

PP10 NEWGRANGE is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. The runner is trained by Bob Baffert who is ineligible to receive any Derby points for his horse’s finish in the race.

PP1 BEN DIESEL will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. PP2 DASH ATTACK is the highest rated horse according to Horse Racing Nation and makes sense in this spot. PP8 BARBER ROAD could be on the improve and ready to pull another upset in the Derby prep season.

Selections: 10-1-2-8

Oaklawn Park Race 10- King Cotton Stakes

Post: 4:55 PM CT; Purse: $150,000 King Cotton S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

PP6 NASHVILLE is a major player in today's race. This horse had one of the more brilliant debuts I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. Since then he hasn’t consistently found that brilliance. However, like a scorned lover I will hold onto to the hope that we will again find that spark that made this one look like the next superhorse.

PP1 HOLLIS beat Nashville last out at Oaklawn Park. PP4 COLLUSION ILLUSION looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. PP3 HOME BASE is another interesting player.

Selections: 6-1-4-3 (Best Bet: #1 NASHVILLE)

Oaklawn Park Race 1

Post: 12:02 PM CT; Purse: $43,000 Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

PP1 LONG TERM THINKING is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & power rating. PP7 WILD BEHAVIOR is another contender based on the horse's connections & pace numbers. PP8 FLAT LUCKY merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & record at the distance. PP6 BULL HOLLOW wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle.

Selections: 1-7-8-6

Oaklawn Park Race 2

Post: 12:32 PM CT; Purse: $32,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

PP1 RIVERBOAT GAMBLER has solid numbers across the board and should be a major player in this spot. PP9 DON'T FORGET has edges in speed & power rating. This one definitely has a shot as well. PP12 ARCHIEMYBOY is in with a great chance based on the horse's connections & pace numbers, but will have to overcome an outside post. PP3 TOWN CHAMP comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 1-9-12-3

Oaklawn Park Race 3

Post: 1:02 PM CT; Purse: $26,000 Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

PP5 HORSE GREEDY is in with a great chance based on the horse's connections & form. PP6 WOBBERJOD merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & power rating. PP9 SEAU is worth a look here given edges in class & pace numbers. PP8 PETIT VERDOT is a solid runner who wouldn’t be a major shock to win the race.

Selections: 5-6-9-8

Oaklawn Park Race 4

Post: 1:32 PM CT; Purse: $200,000 Martha Washington S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 6-1-4-3

Oaklawn Park Race 5

Post: 2:02 PM CT; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

PP5 GENTLEMENS JET should be competitive based on the bloodlines which is the perfect fit for these conditions. PP11 MO VODKA and PP3 CHALECO are both runners who look to be in with a shot. It’s hard to separate which I prefer, so I will probably let the board tell me which of these two is most live. PP9 WHELEN SPRINGS merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & class.

Selections: 5-11-3-9

Oaklawn Park Race 6

Post: 2:36 PM CT; Purse: $43,000 Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

PP12 EGO will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. PP9 KERSHAW should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & class. PP1 BOURBON FRONTIER is in with a great chance based on the projected race flow & early pace numbers posted in previous starts. PP3 LORD DRAGON should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.

Selections: 12-9-1-3

Oaklawn Park Race 7

Post: 3:10 PM CT; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

PP1 ROYAL KING seems like one who will take a fair amount of money in this spot, though I am a bit concerned about the rail draw. PP5 FAVORITE OUTLAW merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form. PP2 INSOLITO could get a perfect pace scenario today. PP10 SLIM MAN has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 1-5-2-10

Oaklawn Park Race 8

Post: 3:42 PM CT; Purse: $100,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

PP7 INDIMAAJ looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including class & power rating. PP1 PALACE COUP is a major player based on speed figures. PP8 FAN CLUB has to be respected based on the connections. PP6 DIVINE ARMOR is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance.

Selections: 7-1-8-6

Oaklawn Park Race 9

Post: 4:22 PM CT; Purse: $750,000 Southwest S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 12

Stakes analysis provided above.

Oaklawn Park Race 10

Post: 4:55 PM CT; Purse: $150,000 King Cotton S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 6-1-4-3

Oaklawn Park Race 11

Post: 5:26 PM CT; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

PP7 TEN GAUGE should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & power rating. PP3 SKATE TO HEAVEN should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. PP4 QUICK TO BLAME wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle. PP11 MUMAYAZ comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 7-3-4-11

Betting News Handicapping Tools

Oaklawn Park will begin its racing week on Friday and will run an additional card on Sunday. For assistance breaking down those cards, check out the Betting News free handicapping tools.