TVG Pacific Classic from Del Mar: Analysis and Selections

Saturday from Del Mar will feature one of their premiere events. The TVG Pacific Classic is one of 5 graded stakes races on the card.

Del Mar Stats

Running Style

Over the meet at Del Mar being on or near the lead has been an advantage on almost all surfaces and distance. Winners have been within 3 lengths of the lead 72% of the time in dirt sprints, 74% of the time in dirt routes, and 72% of the time in turf sprints.

The anomaly has been turf routes where horses more than 5 lengths off the lead at the first call are winning at a 42% clip. Additionally horses within 3 lengths have only won 34% of all races.

Post Position

On dirt there has been a distinct advantage for post positions 4-6 which win 34% of all sprints and 52% of the routes. On grass the advantage has been saving ground in posts 1-3.

Jockeys

Players who are new to Del Mar should note that Flavien Prat, Juan Hernandez, Abel Cedillo, and Umberto Rispoli are the top four jockeys at the track. All 4 riders have mounts in the TVG Pacific Classic.

Trainers

The trainers play the biggest role in getting horses ready to run in the race. For this reason it is important to identify trainers that are going well in order to fully project a horses potential performance. The top 5 trainers are separated by a total of 6 wins.

Peter Miller is currently leading the meet with 14. Other trainers in the top 5 include Mark Glatt, Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, and Phil D’Amato. Bob Baffert will send out Magic On Tap in the TVG Pacific Classic.

TVG Pacific Classic Card Analysis

Race 1

Post: 2:00 PM PT; Purse: 70k Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

With 2 year olds there is always a lot of guessing that goes on. Players will be wise to watch for horses that are taking money or sitting cold on the board as it may represent inside information.

#3 MIRASOL is the only horse in the field with experience and that can often put horses over the top against others without. #2 AIN’T EASY enters with the top breeding rating of anyone in the group for this surface and distance. #6 BENEDICT CANYON has the top connections in this spot and could surprise at 5-1.

• Selections: 3-2-6

Race 2

Post: 2:30 PM PT; Purse: 39k Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#7 MAJOR CABBIE has great connections and has been keeping good company. He has an edge on stamina which I have found to be extremely important at the 6 1/2 furlong distance. #4 P R RADIO STAR has the best record at the distance and comes in cycling up in form. #3 SPEED PASS is the favorite and has the best speed numbers, but I prefer others here.

• Selections: 7-4-3

Race 3

Post: 3:02 PM PT; Purse: 72k Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 8

#5 CONSTITUTIONAFFAIR is a pace play here. At 6-1 he could get the perfect setup. #8 EVENING SUN has a deadly combination of stamina and class which could suit him well. #1 OTTAWA FIRE boasts the top rating in the field and gets top connections in this spot. #2 ONE FAST BRO has the best figures on paper. While that doesn’t mean as much on turf, it makes this one dangerous at a price.

• Selections: 5-1-8-2

Race 4

Post: 3:34 PM PT; Purse: 70k Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

In another 2 year old race #3 THE MET holds an advantage on a lot of these. However, with rapid development of horses and new shooters, paper figures hold less weight. #2 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM and #4 KAMUI appear to be the best bred for today’s race. Breeding is often the most important factor in how these young horses run. #1 RHETORIC has the top connections in the race and could be a player.

• Selections: 3-2-4-1

Race 5

Post: 4:04 PM PT; Purse: 70k Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14

#7 AFFABLE could get the perfect setup here and comes in with the best record at the distance. #1 LONE SCOUT appears to have this group on both stamina and class. Couple that with the the prime ground saving trip from the rail and you have a major player. #2 HOLLYWOODHELLRAISR has the best speed and overall power rating in the group.

• Selections: 7-1-2

Race 6

Post: 4:34 PM PT; Purse: 100k Torrey Pines S., 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

#7 PRIVATE MISSION holds an edge in a lot of key categories and could be really tough in this race. #1 LADY MYSTIFY combines top speed and class numbers to be a major player as well. If one of those two can’t get the job done, #4 FOREST CARAWAY may get the best of the race flow and get the win here. #2 LISETTE feels like an underneath player here based on the current form cycle.

This race is the only dirt route on the card other than the Pacific Classic. Players should pay attentions to any potential signs of how the track is playing in this race.

• Selections: 7-1-4-2 (Best Bet: #7)

Race 7

Post: 5:04 PM PT; Purse: 300k Del Mar Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 6

This race appears to go through one of two runners. #6 MO FORZA has the best recent speed figures and should handle the distance well. #3 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIGHT is another major player who is great form. Further down the ticket I will include #1 NEPTUNE’S STORM who could have a pace advantage in this spot.

• Selections: 6-3-1

Race 8

Post: 5:33 PM PT; Purse: 72k Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

This is a tricky race, but I’ll make my top pick #1 RISK AND REWARD. At 5-1 I look for him to be forwardly placed on the rail and never look back. Don’t sleep on #5 GRAY MAGICIAN who could spring a major upset. He boasts top class and stamina ratings. #8 FAMILY BIZ is in good form with good connections. #6 SCARY FAST SMILE may be helped by the way the track has been playing of late.

• Selections: 1-5-8-6

Race 9

Post: 6:03 PM PT; Purse: 300k Del Mar Oaks, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 9

#3 GOING GLOBAL seems like the most logical winner here with the top speed numbers in the race. If she can’t get it done, look for #4 MADONE to get the best of the pace in this one. Another pace player could be #2 JAVANICA who gets a good inside post. Rounding out my top selections is #6 IVY LEAGUE who comes in after keeping the best company to this point.

• Selections: 3-4-2-6

Race 10- TVG Pacific Classic

Post: 6:33 PM PT; Purse: 1 Mil TVG Pacific Classic S., 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

#5 EXPRESS TRAIN was super impressive last out and he repeats that performance, the favoritism is well merited. #7 INDEPENDENCE HALL is a bit of a price play here but has danced all the big dances and is worth a shot. #2 TIZAMAGICIAN is another major player with the best speed in the group. #9 CUPID’S CLAWS is a total pace play and will hope to hang on as the class comes to get him.

• Selections: 5-7-2-9

Race 11

Post: 7:03 PM PT; Purse: 300k Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing Association, 1 3/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 11

#3 RED KING is in great form and may have the pace edge on these. #8 ARKLOW is a hard knocking turf runner that comes in with the highest overall rating in the race. #11 SAY THE WORD could be helped by the flow of the race is the #3 doesn’t fire. #4 UNITED has great connections and has been ultra consistent on turf of late.

• Selections: 3-8-11-4

Good luck on all wagers on the TVG Pacific Classic Card this weekend!