Pennsylvania Derby 2021: Analysis and Selections for Parx on Saturday

This weekend many of the top horses in training will head to Parx in Philadelphia. The Pennsylvania Derby highlights a Saturday card with 8 stakes races.

Medina Spirit Out of Pennsylvania Derby

The big news last weekend polarizing 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit would be withdrawing from the race. Trainer Bob Baffert pointed to the wide post draw as the reason for the horse passing on the event.

Medina Spirit was scheduled to leave from the 9 post. The decision to scratch has many scratching their heads as the horse won the Kentucky Derby from the 8 post which seems inconsistent with the “wide post” rationale for the scratch.

The scratch has a major impact on the competitiveness of the Pennsylvania Derby leaving only a couple of major players remaining.

Baffert was suppose to run a horse on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard in the Cotillion, but has announced that horse will scratch as well.

Handicapping the Pennsylvania Derby Card

Projected Forecast

Pennsylvania has had moderate temperatures throughout the last week or so. That trend appears to be continuing into the weekend. With little to no threat of rain between now and Saturday, there should be no adverse impacts from weather to consider when handicapping the races this weekend.

Pennsylvania Derby Card Analysis

Race 1

Post: 12:05 PM ET; Purse: $80,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

#8 MORNING MATCHA is at odds of 2-1 and rates highest on speed figures and class. #7 CRAZY SERENA is at odds of 8-1 but could have an edge in pace on this group. #3 GOLDEN ESSENCE is at odds of 12-1 and has a chance to put up a overachieving effort here. #4 DARLING DONNA is at odds of 4-1 with the stamina to get the distance.

Selections: 8-7-3-4

Race 2

Post: 12:32 PM ET; Purse: $50,000 Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

#1 FLASHING DIAMOND is the favorite and has speed figures and power rating to suggest she will be tough to beat. Looking to fill out vertical plays I will use #10 ALWAYS TALKING at odds of 15-1. She has kept good company of late. #4 LOVE ON FIRE is at odds of 5-1 and looks good on numbers against this group. #2 LE PETITE PAPILLON may look to take advantage of her run style and run a bang up race at 8-1.

Selections: 1-10-4-2

Race 3

Post: 12:59 PM ET; Purse: $50,000 Starter Allowance, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

#7 SEVIER is another heavy favorite on the card. This one goes out for top connections and looks to be dangerous on a number of in race metrics. #4 FEDERAL CASE is 6-1 and appears to be cycling up to a big performance here. #10 GENGHIS is worth a shot at 10-1 and should be able to handle the 7 furlongs just fine. #1 GEEBERT appears to fit well with this group and is worth consideration as well.

Selections: 7-4-10-1

Race 4

Post: 1:26 PM ET; Purse: $80,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 16

Race 4 is the last leg of the early pick 4 on Pennsylvania Derby Day. #1 MY COUSIN RICH is at odds of 5-1 and is competitive in a lot of categories which should make him a good play at this level. #15 FLYING WITH ANGELS is at odds of 7-2 and speed figures in his early career that leave reason for optimism. #8 RUFFY is a long shot who should be well suited by the flow of the race. #12 MOTION PICTURE is at odds of 9-2 and is not without a chance.

Selections: 1-15-8-12

Race 5

Post: 1:54 PM ET; Purse: $80,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

#8 GUNFIGHTER appears to tower over this lightly raced field. Other horses of interest include #12 VINE JET based on pace and speed as well as #6 KENNER and #13 DANGNABBIT who get a perfect pace set up.

Selections: 8-12-6-13

Race 6

Post: 2:22 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Plum Pretty S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 CHUB WAGON kicks off the stakes action on Pennsylvania Derby day with the top speed figures and a proven ability to win at this level. #1 VAULT is a classy individual with connections that must be respected. #5 TROLLEY RIDE is coming in with an edge in form. #4 PRECIOUS is another who would not surprise me.

Selections: 6-1-5-4

Race 7

Post: 2:51 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Parx Dirt Mile S., 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 SILVER STATE has been running against better and should enjoy running against this level of competition. The most likely threat is probably #3 MIND CONTROL based on speed figures, but it is hard to see the horse taking a big enough jump to win here. #1 DREAMS UNTOLD could get a nice setup from the inside post. #7 WARRIOR'S CHARGE looks ready to run a big one.

Selections: 6-3-1-7

Race 8

Post: 3:20 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Greenwood Cup S., 1 1/2 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

This is a relatively uninspiring grade 3 race. #3 MORETTI is at odds of 2-1 and is probably most likely however the price is likely to be way too short. That being said, I don’t love anyone else. #2 MATH WIZARD is one who could return to form on the track and spring the upset. #7 SHEER FLATTERY makes sense on figures while #5 SHOOGER RAY TOO could be worth a play underneath at 8-1.

Selections: 3-2-7-5

Race 9

Post: 3:51 PM ET; Purse: $300,000 Turf Monster S., 5 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 13

The beginning of the Pennsylvania Derby Pick 5 is the Turf Monster. #4 CAROTARI is at odds of 9-2 but has been running so well of late. #8 CARAVEL is the favorite and comes in with the top power rating. #10 THE CONNECTOR is at odds of 12-1 and I feel like is the right type of horse to produce an inflated payout. #5 FIRECROW also has a shot at a relatively short price.

Selections: 4-8-10-5

Race 10

Post: 4:22 PM ET; Purse: $300,000 Gallant Bob S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

If #7 JACKIE'S WARRIOR loses so will I. This is my best bet of the day and the horse only loses the race on racing luck. If talent plays any part in this race, everyone is trying real hard for 2nd.

Selections: 7-2-6-1 (Best Bet: #7)

Race 11

Post: 5:02 PM ET; Purse: $1,000,000 Cotillion S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

In a field of inconsistency price plays a huge part in my handicapping. #1 OBLIGATORY is at odds of 10-1 and has an edge in pace numbers. #6 CLAIRIERE is at odds of 2-1 and could win, but this one hasn’t shown the ability to blow the doors off. #4 MARACUJA beat Malathaat. Regardless of the circumstances in that race, Malathaat would be odds on against this bunch so I’ll take the price. #5 ARMY WIFE is at odds of 7-2 and if she finds that Iowa Oaks form again she could be a big player.

Selections: 1-6-4-5

Race 12

Post: 5:49 PM ET; Purse: $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

The Pennsylvania Derby looks to have 3 players with recognizable names. #8 MIDNIGHT BOURBON and #2 KEEPMEINMIND have run all the big races. They have proven a cut below the top of this division, but they have opposite run styles and could set each other up for a minor upset. #7 HOT ROD CHARLIE is undoubtedly the horse to beat and I will try, but will not let him be the reason I rip tickets. #1 FULSOME is an interesting long shot to fill out trifectas.

Selections: 8-2-7-1

Race 13

Post: 6:20 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Alphabet Soup H., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 11

The final race on the Pennsylvania Derby Card is the Alphabet Soup Handicap. #7 WAIT FOR IT is 7-2 on the morning line and has a great chance here. #5 PAPAL LAW is one that won’t jump off the page but has quietly been running great races. #3 IRISH CORK and #1 YOU MUST CHILL are both proven at the distance.

Selections: 7-5-3-1