Preakness and Black Eyed Susan Betting Guide

The Preakness Stakes and Black Eyed Susan won’t see the pool sizes of the Oaks and Derby. However, there is still money to be made with a targeted betting strategy at.

In a pari-mutuel sport like horse racing that means that there is more money to go around to the winners. Taking even a little bit of time to handicap the race and formulate an opinion will immediately separate you from casual players. Many of whom choose to throw $5 on the jockey in the pink silks or the horse with the funny name.

This guide is designed to give you a leg up on the competition.

Pace Makes the Race

Understanding the pace scenario of the race is important. Some horses like to run on the lead while others like to sit off in a stalking position. There are also instances where horses like to sit several lengths off the leaders. After conserving energy they will try to accelerate to pass horses late.

The following is a pace analysis of this year’s runners. These are merely projections based on races to this point. Sometimes horses take a different tactic to avoid trouble or catch the other jockeys off guard. However, the better idea of pace a player can have, the more likely they are to cash a ticket.

Black Eyed Susan Pace

Early Speed

The Black Eyed Susan looks to have no shortage of pace to run at. #2 Missy Greer, #4 Midnight Stroll, and #10 Adare Manor all look to be the type of horse that want the lead.

Of this group the #1o looks like the likeliest to be able to carry speed. However, in the Santa Anita Oaks she was completely destroyed by a hot pace which is cause for some concern. The two she faces today do seem like speed and fades.

Stalkers

Just in behind the leaders looks to be the most competitive position to try and gain. #1 Divine Huntress will dictate a lot of the positioning based on her natural rail position.

#5 Beguine and #6 Luna Belle will also be in that mix. These two will be hoping from clear out runs from the #2 and #4 in order to tuck in, but don’t have a ton of extra ground to cover if those horses break slow.

#8 Candy Light, #9 Interstatedaydream, and #11 Radio Days would also prefer nice stalking trips but they will have more to contend with to their inside to get such a forward position in the race.

Mid Pack

There are only a couple of true mid pack type horse in today’s race and while that can be beneficial, they may get shuffled back due to the massive numbers of horses fighting for position in front of them.

#7 Distinctly Possible should get the best of these trips with #12 Favor also looking to seek out this type of run.

Closers

#3 Miss Yearwood and #13 Morning Matcha are the only 2 confirmed closers of the lot and look to have a fair amount to do in the late stages of the race.

Preakness Pace

Early Speed

The pace of the Preakness looks to be much more measured than its female counterpart. #5 Early Voting is likely best of speed and should be able to get on the lead if he wants. However, connections have indicated he may yield and let someone else do the dirty work.

Other potential pace setters are #3 Fenwick and #7 Armagnac.

Stalkers

The designated stalkers in the race include 2 of the major players. #1 Simplification will be somewhere in the 2nd tier though he is much more likely to be mid pack then on the outright lead.

Quite the opposite, race favorite #8 Epicenter is an off the pace type who has proven he can win on the lead if no one goes. With the #5 potentially seeking a target Epicenter on the front wouldn’t be a surprise.

#9 Skippylongstocking is the other one that will be looking for position in this second flight.

Mid Pack

#2 Creative Minister is a horse that likes to come roaring home from just out of it. This is not a hopeless position at Pimlico and could be dangerous.

Closers

#4 Secret Oath and #6 Happy Jack both like to their running from a bit further out. Secret Oath however, has proven that she can run in a more mid pack running style as well.

Final Black Eyed Susan Analysis

The Black Eyed Susan has talent, but there is so much depth in the field that this may be your best chance at value.

In an attempt to cash on on this race, pace seems to be a vital part of the equation and tickets should be constructed according to that.

My key opinion here will be that Distinctly Possible is the most likely horse to finish in the top 2 positions.

Black Eyed Susan Opinions

• Most Likely Pace Setter: #10 Adare Manor
• Most Likely to Hit The Board: #7 Distinctly Possible
• Best Value Win Contender: #7 Distinctly Possible
• Other Win Contenders: #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #10 Adare Manor, #11 Radio Days
• Live Longshots: #1 Divine Huntress, #12 Favor

Final Preakness Analysis

The toll of an unbelievable run in the Kentucky Derby is the only question for Epicenter. All indications from Pimlico are that this guy looks like a champ which may suggest that the Kentucky Derby didn’t take much out of him. If he brings his A game, he may be tough to beat.

My plays will center around the idea that Epicenter is just flat out hard to beat in this spot. His short price means value will need to be created as it will not exist naturally on the tickets.

Final Preakness Opinions

• Most Likely Pace Setter: #5 Early Voting
• Most Likely to Hit The Board: #8 Epicenter
• Best Value Win Contender: #4 Secret Oath
• Other Win Contenders: #1 Simplification, #5 Early Voting, #8 Epicenter
• Live Longshots: #2 Creative Minister

Black Eyed Susan & Preakness Betting Strategy

Before you place a dollar on any race, figure out what your preferred betting style is and craft your bets according to that style. This will ensure that you can enjoy your race day experience. No matter how big or small your budget is, this wagering guide has something for everyone.

The following wagers are a combination of handicapping opinion and value estimation. With so many factors in horse racing it is hardly worth the risk to bet $20 to win $22.50. These wagers are designed to ensure that if they hit, the payout will be worth the risk.

Understanding the Wager Types

For those new to betting on horse racing, you may find it helpful to first become familiar with the various types of bets that will be outlined in this article. The wagers provided here will focus on the Double, Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta.

Before placing a bet always make sure you fully understand what is on your ticket and what needs to happen in order to win the bet.

For example, a 1/2/3 Trifecta means your horses must finish in that order. On the other hand, a 1,2,3 Trifecta Box means they can finish in any order. This is more likely to hit but is more expensive because you have to buy every possible combination.

If you’re not sure what your ticket means, it is usually best to cancel it.

Black Eyed Susan, Preakness Double

Much like the Oaks Derby Double, this wager gives players a chance to have 1 bet span two days. The wager requires you to successfully select the winner of both the Black Eyed Susan and the Preakness.

For the following wagers the word “with” will separate Black Eyed Susan horses from Preakness runners.

The total cost of each wager is listed in parentheses at the end of the bet. Total cost represents all combinations within the bet.

$20 Bankroll:

• $4 Double #6 Luna Bella, #7 Distinctly Possible, #9 Interstate Daydream, #10 Adare Manor, #11 Radio Days with #8 Epicenter ($20)

$100 Bankroll:

• $11 Double #6 Luna Bella, #7 Distinctly Possible, #9 Interstate Daydream, #10 Adare Manor, #11 Radio Days with #8 Epicenter ($55)
• $3 Double #6 Luna Bella, #7 Distinctly Possible, #9 Interstate Daydream, #10 Adare Manor, #11 Radio Days with #1 Simplification, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting ($45)

*The assumption in the $100 play is that $3 to beat Epicenter will pay over $100. Always make sure to watch the tote board and adjust accordingly. This is a much bigger deal in the Preakness because the pool sizes will be significantly less than they were in the Derby.

Single Race Wagers

The following wagers can be placed at any time prior to the race. It is usually best to wait until after scratches have come out to make sure there are no late changes to your bets.

The following bets are broken down by risk tolerance. Bets can be scaled up or down depending on your bankroll for the race.

It is important to remember that even conservative wagers are far from sure things. In general, the premise is that the conservative bets focus on maximum coverage of likely outcomes to increase the probability of having a winner that pays more than what you put in.

Aggressive bets are focused on making a score that you will be telling your buddies about for the next decade. While these bets undoubtedly will have much higher payouts they are also predicated on significant chaos occurring and there is a much better chance of walking out with nothing but your memories.

Moderate wagers fall somewhere in between with a bit of hedging on more likely outcomes with one or two chances to make a considerable score.

Betting Terminology

Some of the wagers below use the terms “Box”, “Key”, and “Wheel” which represent assigning multiple horses to a specific placing position.

The “Box”

The word “Box” means that the horses on your ticket can come in any order and you win. This is the most expensive and least efficient way to bet but can have its place in your Kentucky Derby betting strategy because of the liquidity in the pools.

The “Key” and “Wheel”

Keys and wheels are used to include multiple horses in different positions, without having to cover all possible combinations. These can be extremely helpful if you think you know the horse that will finish in a certain spot (key) or if you think a horse has little chance to hit one of the positions in the wager.

Wheels are best when you think a horse has a chance to win wire to wire or will completely fall apart and miss the board completely. Unlike the box which would require you to buy tickets with this horse in every spot, you can wheel them in the top spot and leave them off the rest of the ticket.

With wheels and keys the word “over” is used to separate between placing positions.

Example: Trifecta Key #1 over #2 and #3 over #2,#3, and #4

• #1 must be in first
• #2 or #3 must finish second
• #2,#3, or #4 must finish third

Black Eyed Susan Plays

$100 Bankroll

Conservative Approach

This approach is heavily weighted on the idea that Distinct Manner is most likely to hit the exacta if she doesn’t win.

• $15 Win, $30 Place on #7 Distinctly Possible ($45)
• $10 Exacta Box #7 Distinctly Possible, #10 Adare Manor ($20)
• $5 Exacta Key Box #7 Distinctly Possible with #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days ($15)
• $5 Exacta Wheel #10 Adare Manor, #7 Distinctly Possibly over #1 Divine Huntress, #12 Favor ($20)

Aggressive Approach

With the aggressive approach continues the ideal from the conservative approach but takes a stab at some riskier bets. For these wagers I will be using what is known as a double key. The trifecta wagers were designed using specific pace analysis.

• $15 Win #6 Luna Bella
• $10 Exacta Box #7 Distinctly Possible, #10 Adare Manor ($20)
• $3 Exacta Key #7 Distinctly Possible, #10 Adare Manor over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor ($30)
• $1 Trifecta Key #10 Adare Manor over #7 Distinctly Possible over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor ($5)
• $1 Trifecta Key #10 Adare Manor over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor over #7 Distinctly Possible ($5)
• $1 Trifecta Key #7 Distinctly Possible over #10 Adare Manor over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor ($5)
• $1 Trifecta Key #7 Distinctly Possible over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor over #1 Divine Huntress, #6 Luna Bella, #9 Interstate Daydream, #11 Radio Days, #12 Favor ($20)

Preakness Plays

$100 Bankroll

Conservative Approach

This approach is heavily weighted on the idea that Epicenter is far and away the best horse. There is no value in betting Epicenter to win even in the most conservative approaches so I have to make up value in exotics.

• $15 Exacta Key #8 Epicenter over #1 Simplification, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting ($60)
• $6 Exacta Key #1 Simplification, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting over #8 Epicenter ($24)
• $3 Exacta Key Box #8 Epicenter over #2 Creative Minister, #7 Armagnac ($6)

*Players will be wise to watch the probables. If the $1 exacta Epicenter over Creative Minister is paying $20, your $3 bet would only return $60 even if you win and it would be a losing proposition. Always use the tote board to modify bet amounts to make sure that any winning wager nets at least your money back. If you can’t make the math work eliminate tickets.

Aggressive Approach

When you have stand out like Epicenter on the page, there isn’t as much distinction between the approaches. However, this approach will increase payouts because it is focused on trifectas.

• $10 Exacta Key #8 Epicenter over #2 Creative Minister, #7 Armagnac ($20)
• $25 Exacta Key #8 Epicenter over #5 Early Voting ($25)
• $2 Trifecta Key #8 Epicenter over #1 Simplification, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting over #1 Simplification, #2 Creative Minister, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting ($18)
• $1 Trifecta Key #1 Simplification, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting over #8 Epicenter over #1 Simplification, #2 Creative Minister, #4 Secret Oath, #5 Early Voting ($9)
• $1 Trifecta Key #8 Epicenter over #2 Creative Minister, #3 Fenwick, #7 Armagnac, #5 Early Voting over ALL ($28)

Good luck on all of your Black Eyed Susan and Preakness Wagers!