Preakness Contest: Betonline Contest Strategy

The Preakness takes place this Saturday, May 18th. As part of the festivities, BetOnline is offering a free contest. Betting News has you covered with some helpful tips on playing the free Preakness contest.

Free to Enter

One of the best parts of the Kentucky Derby contest offered at BetOnline is the fact that it is 100% free to enter. All you need to do is signup for a BetOnline account. Players who hope to take down some of the prize pool will need to place a minimum of $10 in wagers through either the racebook or betting the Preakness via the sportsbook.

For those new to BetOnline, you can receive a bonus deposit match when you make your first deposit using the promo code provided on their website. Signup for your BetOnline account today.

Preakness Contest Format

When entering any tournament it is important to know the format to maximize play. The format of this one is pretty straight forward. Pick the top two finishers of the Preakness in order. It is important to note that the official results will be used to determine the winner.

This means that if a players successfully predicts the top two finishers but one is disqualified during the unofficial window, the entry would be a loser. Once the race has been declared official on race day, the contest will close. Horses disqualified for any reason after the race is declared official will have no bearing on the contest results.

Preakness Contest Strategy

Unlike the Kentucky Derby contest earlier this spring, the Preakness contest is likely to produce a much more predictable outcome. There are a couple of ways to attack the contest. Let’s take a look at the different approaches.

Eliminations

A good starting point when trying to determine the exacta is to kill the noise. Horses that are entered, but are unlikely to play any significant role in the race. Here are a few horses that regardless of strategy appear to be non-factors:

• #1 Mugatu only has 1 win and 1 second to his name in 12 career starts. Although recent speed figures have been better, this one last won a race with a 73 speed figure. This is nearly 30 points shy of the top of the field.
• #2 Uncle Heavy is the toss that scares me the most. The 94 figure in the Withers is a cut below these but respectable. I just always struggle to trust the winter Aqueduct numbers. This one does get a major jockey upgrade and projects an ok trip. Still I think this one is just a bit slow.
• #6 Seize the Grey has run a pair of 92 speed figs, but both came at distances under 1 1/8th miles. This race will be 1 and 3/16ths. This one just feels like a really strong grade 2 miler, but not a grade 1 classic horse.
• #7 Just Steel ran in the Kentucky Derby and while that often means a fit horse this one showed speed and then faded badly. I don’t see this one being able to get clear of Imagination which could lead to another absolute meltdown for this runner. The race 2 back losing to Muth and beating Mystik Dan does give some pause however.

Top 2

Perhaps the most common approach that players take toward the exacta is just selecting their top 2 choices in the race. While this strategy can be a trap in large fields, the field has been reduced to 8 by the scratch of morning line favorite Muth. In these smaller fields even similarly matched horses may be able to separate themselves from their weaker counterparts. Even in the event that one of them can’t carry the fight, the likelihood that they get softened up and can’t run second decreases.

Players looking to this approach would be wise to compile their top picks from the following group:

• #3 Catching Freedom ran a 100 speed figure at the Preakness distance. Finishes in the exacta 50% of all races.
• #5 Mystik Dan ran a 101 speed figure in the Southwest. Great form off the Kentucky Derby win which given the trip shouldn’t have taken too much out of him. Finishes in the exacta 57% of the time.
• #8 Tuscan Gold earned a 98 speed figure in just his 3rd start. The improvement from this horse could put him over the top. Early Voting and Cloud Computing are proof that Chad Brown knows how to get a winner pointed to the Preakness.

Pace Makes the Race

Taking this approach to the exacta is a bit more sophisticated. It recognizes the fact that the two best horses rarely run 1-2. Instead the dynamics of the race create the eventual outcome.

Projected Preakness Pace

Imagination in the San Felipe

With the defection of Muth, the pace of this race seems to go directly through the other Baffert. #9 Imagination has a 2 point Quirin speed point edge on the rest of the field and the top early 1 and early 2 pace numbers in the group.

That tends to suggest that this race could set up with horses struggling to make up much ground on the speed favoring track. If this comes to fruition, players will want to be looking for that horse that won’t have to make up to much ground to hit the exacta.

Likely Contenders

Players aligned with the above pace reading will want to concede either the top or 2nd spot to #9 Imagination depending on their perception of his ability to carry the speed to the wire.

Horses that would be a good fit to fill in either of the other spots on the entry would be:

• #5 Mystik Dan sitting a stalking trip no more than 2 lengths off the leader.
• #8 Tuscan Gold sitting a similar trip to the Louisiana Derby which likely was run at a faster pace than today’s contest.

If you are hoping to scoop the pool and inflate your possible cash prize, a contrarian approach may be the way to go. You could assume that Imagination gets on with it and the others come up soft. This could be a place to bring in a runner like #2 Uncle Heavy or #7 Just Steel in the 2nd position. Catch that right and you’ll be scooping a large piece of the price pie.

Best of luck and always make sure to read the full rules of any contest you participate in. Click here to enter the BetOnline Preakness Exacta Contest.

Preakness Week Horse Racing Coverage

Stay up to date on all the latest action from Pimlico during Preakness weekend with Betting News including:

• Black-Eyed Susan full card analysis
• Preakness full card analysis
• Preakness exacta contest strategy