Santa Anita Saturday: Big Cap, San Felipe Analysis

Santa Anita will hold 6 stakes on Saturday. Among the stakes will be the “Big Cap” and the San Felipe which offers 50 Derby points to the winner.

Santa Anita Park Race 6- San Felipe Stakes (Derby Prep)

Post: 2:30 PM PT; Purse: $400,000 San Felipe S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #6 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (8-5) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
• #3 ARMAGNAC (5-1) is the other Baffert in the race and the one I actually prefer. This one figures to be forward and gets Johnny V. in the saddle. This is the same jockey that Baffert used when Medina Spirit crossed the wire first in gate to wire fashion in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. With all Baffert runners this one is ineligible for the Derby points.
• #5 DOPPELGANGER (9-5) is the more touted Baffert of the 2 and like his stablemate will not be able to earn any points for this race.
• #7 CABO SPIRIT (5-1) is probably the next likeliest winner, though I have little to no interest in using this one on top.

Selections: 6-3-5-7

Santa Anita Park Race 11- “The Big Cap”

Post: 5:00 PM PT; Purse: $650,000 Santa Anita H. presented by Yaamava' Resort & Casino, 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #6 EXPRESS TRAIN (8-5) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers.
• #8 STILLETO BOY (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & power rating.
• #2 WHY WHY PAUL WHY (6-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
• #1 SPIELBERG (8-1) was at one time viewed as a super star. We’re along way from that, but maybe he can get the job done as a dark horse.

Selections: 6-8-2-1

Saturday Undercard Analysis

Santa Anita Park Race 1

Post: 12:00 PM PT; Purse: $69,000 Allowance, About 6 1/2 Furlongs on Downhill turf; Entries: 13

• #10 SEE THROUGH IT (5-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.
• #7 CONSTITUTIONAFFAIR (12-1) could pull a big upset based on the competition this one’s been facing.
• #8 GOLD PHOENIX (5-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & power rating.
• #3 BURNIN TURF (12-1) has proven to at least be a good bet when running on the downhill turf course.

Selections: 10-7-8-3

Santa Anita Park Race 2

Post: 12:28 PM PT; Purse: $67,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT (6-1) looks formidable here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
• #4 TAIBA (8-5) has breeding to suggest this one could be good at first asking.
• #6 TENTH STREET DON (8-1) gets Juan Hernandez aboard which is always promising.
• #2 OVERRULE (4-1) goes out for Richard Mandella. The breeding says this one wouldn’t be a total shock.

Selections: 7-4-6-2

Santa Anita Park Race 3

Post: 12:58 PM PT; Purse: $40,000 Starter Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

• #6 SADIE BLUEGRASS (4-1) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & pace numbers.
• #1 BRISTOL BAYOU (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & class.
• #5 SAVVY GAL (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & race flow.
• #8 STORMING LADY (3-1) looks to have to have kept solid company in the previous starts.

Selections: 6-1-5-8

Santa Anita Park Race 4

Post: 1:28 PM PT; Purse: $200,000 San Carlos S. presented by BetOnline, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

• #1 BRICKYARD RIDE (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & early pace numbers.
• #6 EIGHT RINGS (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & power rating.
• #4 CEZANNE (5-2) has to be respected based on the connections.
• #3 CANADIAN PRIDE (5-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 1-6-4-3

Santa Anita Park Race 5

Post: 1:58 PM PT; Purse: $200,000 Buena Vista S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 11

• #10 GOING TO VEGAS (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & connections.
• #5 LEGGS GALORE (7-2) has a great shot in the race given the speed & power rating.
• #2 TONY ANN (6-1) is worth a look based on the record at the distance. This one should be involved in the early pace mix.
• #11 MUCHO UNUSUAL (4-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.

Selections: 10-5-2-11

Santa Anita Park Race 6

Post: 2:30 PM PT; Purse: $400,000 San Felipe S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7

• San Felipe Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 6-3-5-7

Santa Anita Park Race 7

Post: 3:00 PM PT; Purse: $67,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 9

• #1 GOT THUNDER (6-5) has been close at this level before. Today looks to be the day he breaks through.
• #5 WAR AT SEA (5-2) is a major player in today's race with the top speed figure in the group. It is a small sample size though.
• #9 TUSKEGEE CAT (5-2) will be forward early and could be a major factor.
• #7 BARNFIELD (10-1) goes out for solid connections.

Selections: 1-5-9-7

Santa Anita Park Race 8

Post: 3:30 PM PT; Purse: $69,000 Allowance, About 6 1/2 Furlongs on Downhill turf; Entries: 13

• #7 TAMING THE TIGRESS (6-1) will be on the engine early and I like this one to spring the upset.
• #1 EVER SMART (20-1) is a massive price but is proven at this distance to be a factor. This is a quirky distance and track.
• #8 THAT'S AMARE (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.
• #6 KALON (6-1) is ridden by Juan Hernandez who is one of the top all around riders in California, but his prowess on the turf makes this one all the more palatable.

Selections: 7-1-8-6

Santa Anita Park Race 9

Post: 4:00 PM PT; Purse: $500,000 Beholder Mile S., 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 6

• #3 AS TIME GOES BY (4-5) barring a horrible turn of racing luck, this one looks like about as much of a lock as they come.
• #5 MISS BIGLY (5-1) classes up well with the favorite.
• #6 ENVOUTANTE (8-5) should be able to distribute energy evenly over this mile distance and may be able to outlast some of these in the late stages.
• #1 VARDA (6-1) feels like a stretch, but wouldn’t be a surprise to finish in the top 4.

Selections: 3-5-6-1 (Best Bet #3 AS TIME GOES BY)

Santa Anita Park Race 10

Post: 4:29 PM PT; Purse: $500,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 12

• #4 COUNT AGAIN (7-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's class & record at the distance.
• #2 SUBCONSCIOUS (5-1) is a major player based on speed figures.
• #8 SPACE TRAVELLER (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in form & power rating.
• #11 BOB AND JACKIE (20-1) will be forward from the outset. With the post maybe this one sends and gets lonely on the front end.

Selections: 4-2-8-11

Santa Anita Park Race 11

Post: 5:00 PM PT; Purse: $650,000 Santa Anita H. presented by Yaamava' Resort & Casino, 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• Santa Anita Handicap analysis provided above.

Selections: 6-8-2-1

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