Saratoga Closing Day: Hopeful Analysis and Selections

Monday’s Labor Day card will mark the end of the 2021 Saratoga meet. The highlight will be the Hopeful Stakes which goes off as race 10.

Saratoga Standings

With the Saratoga meet heading into the final card on Labor Day, the jockey, trainer, and owner standings are starting to crystallize.

Following Sunday’s card 6 jockeys had over 30 wins at the meet. Luis Saez is heavily favored to win the jockey with 62 wins. He is followed by Irad Ortiz Jr (56), Jose Ortiz (51), Joel Rosario (43), Tyler Gafflione (33), and Ricardo Santana Jr. (33). Saez has a mount in all 12 races on Monday’s final card while Irad has mounts in 11 of the races.

In the trainer Saratoga standings Mike Maker got off to a blazing start, but cooled off during the 2nd half of the meet. He now finds himself in third with 24 wins. At the top of the standings is Chad Brown who does extremely well at this meet every year because of the extensive turf racing schedule at the NYRA track. Brown will be named winning trainer as he sits more than 10 wins to the good of 2nd place Todd Pletcher.

In the owner standings it is a bit of a two horse race with only 2 owners reaching the double digit win total on the meet. Klaravich Stables will be named the winner in the owner standings as they sit 5 victories to the good over Michael Dubb.

Saratoga Race Analysis

Race 1

Post: 12:35 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

Kicking off the Saratoga card, #1 EQUAL PAY looks tough to beat here with the best class and connections. #3 MUN LUV also makes sense on speed figures and stamina. If one of those two can’t get the job done look for #6 BIG CITY MOMMA to get the job done. This horse has the best record at the distance. #5 VENUS OYZO also has a shot here.

• Selections: 1-3-6-5

Race 2

Post: 1:10 PM ET; Purse: $85,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#1A ADVERSITY is classy and has done little wrong thus far in the career. #6 CARAGATE is another major player rating out best on speed figures, stamina, and pace. #4 BELARUS is well bred for today’s conditions and #3 THE HONORABLE RUTH was competitive in the last try. A little improvement off the last effort could make this one a player.

• Selections: 1A-6-4-3

Race 3

Post: 1:43 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Bernard Baruch H., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 5

In the first turf event on the Saratoga card, #3 L'IMPERATOR looks imposing. Speed figures, connections, and form all suggest that this is the one to beat. #2 EN WYE CEE has been keeping good company of late and is another major player. #5 DREAMS OF TOMORROW and #4 NO WORD are not without a shot in this short field.

• Selections: 3-2-5-4 (Best Bet: #3)

Race 4

Post: 2:16 PM ET; Purse: $48,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#2 MY ROXY GIRL seems to have the right running style for the pace of this race. #6 FRILLS has the speed figures race flow ratings strikes. #5 SUBSIDIARY may just be rounding into form and could be ready for a top performance here. #4 EXTRA EFFORT will have Irad aboard needing a monster day to take down the jockey crown at Saratoga.

• Selections: 2-6-5-4

Race 5

Post: 2:47 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Inner Turf; Entries: 8

#6 REALM OF LAW has to be respected coming out of the Chad Brown barn. #4 ABAAN has stamina and class that fits here and may get the run of the race. #8 AMERICAN LAW has some of the best speed figures in the group. #1 TACKLE is a distance specialist that has done little wrong to this point.

• Selections: 6-4-8-1

Race 6

Post: 3:22 PM ET; Purse: $52,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

#8 LINNY KATE looks to hold a strong hand in the 6th at Saratoga based on the quality of the fields she’s been facing. Although not as important on turf #6 OCEAN AIR is rated as the top horse according to Brisnet Prime Power. #7 PRINCESS PINKY has the best record at the distance. #13 BACK CHANNEL has a run style that is perfectly suited to the way the track has been playing this meet.

• Selections: 8-6-7-13

Race 7

Post: 3:54 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

#11 CLOUD PLAY looks well bred to run a big one in this spot. #4 DON'T WAIT UP has experience and stacks up well against a number of firsters here. #7 ROAD TO STARDOM and #10 PINE VALLEY are both interesting long shots here as neither has done anything wrong to this point.

• Selections: 11-4-7-10

Race 8

Post: 4:29 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Inner Turf; Entries: 10

#7 SILVERY RILL has been a class edge on the group and has top jockey Saez aboard. #2 CONSUMER SPENDING has the best speed figures of the group. #3 DANCIN DEE gets Dylan Davis aboard who has been finding sneaky ways to get prices home all meet long. #8 POPULAR VOTE may have a slight pace edge on the group.

• Selections: 7-2-3-8

Race 9

Post: 5:04 PM ET; Purse: $95,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#6 AWESOME DEBATE has the best speed figures in the group and looks dangerous here. #8 HONEY MONEY has the top power rating in the group and could upset at 6-1. #7 BETSY BLUE will get Irad in the saddle for Linda Rice. #2 MISS JIMMY is an experienced mare who could provide some value underneath.

• Selections: 6-8-7-2

Race 10

Post: 5:38 PM ET; Purse: $300,000 Hopeful S., 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11

The Hopeful is the final stakes race from Saratoga and features some of the most brilliant 2 year old’s to run at the meet. #6 WIT has one of the best 2 year old speed figures the country has seen all year. #8 HIGH OAK comes off a monster performance last out and the last race scores out really well against this group. #10 POWER AGENDA could get the best run of the race. #3 GUNITE is an interesting one here that could score at a price.

• Selections: 6-8-10-3

Race 11

Post: 6:10 PM ET; Purse: $103,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Inner Turf; Entries: 16

Race 11 will be the final race on the Saratoga inner turf course.#6 COLD HARD CASH has the best record at the distance and could be tough here. #2 KING CAUSE combines the foundation of carrying speed with running against tougher in previous races. #14 ADVANCE NOTICE and #7 LA HARA both have reasonable shots to get the win here as well.

• Selections: 6-2-14-7

Race 12

Post: 6:42 PM ET; Purse: $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 16

#6 NEW YORK SUPREME could get the perfect race flow for a big win to close out the Saratoga meet. #10 ORMA has done little wrong of late and against maiden claimers sometimes that’s all it takes. #4 STELLA MARS has a lot of metrics that make her look formidable here. #3 BARREL OF BLISS is a long shot that could provide some fireworks to end the meet.

• Selections: 6-10-4-3

For television coverage of closing day at Saratoga check out NYRA’s TV Schedule. The races can also been viewed by going to the official NYRA YouTube channel where all races will be livestreamed.