Sunland Park Derby: Lone New Mexico Kentucky Derby Prep Sunday

The Sunland Park Derby is a 50 point prep race for the Kentucky Derby. The race has yet to produce a winner on the first Saturday in May. However it does have some connections to a Triple Crown winner.

Justify’s Bait and Switch

Although the race has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, one of the most famous story lines surrounding the race includes a triple crown. Bob Baffert had a really good colt in 2018. Normally this would have been identified in 2017, but Justify did not race as a 2 year old.

The horse was ready to go and Baffert snuck him into a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. Justify won and thus began down the Derby trail. Immediately connections started pointing to the Sunland Derby. This it appears was just a ruse to ensure that the allowance race they wanted would fill at Santa Anita.

It is not uncommon for connections to avoid entering races if they feel there is a monster in there. This can cause races to be left unfilled and the races are not run. Such an occurrence could have ruined the colt’s chances at staying on the Derby trail.

In the end Justify romped in the allowance and continued on to a Santa Anita Derby and a triple crown.

Sunland Park- Race 1

Post: 12:25 PM MT; $15.7k Maiden Claiming going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

• #6 RESTLESS MOVER (5-2) gets the top selection. She has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #4 REALLY A STORM (7-2) has to be respected going out for the combination of Summers and Juarez.
• #7 SINGING DELIGHT (9-2) should be competitive in this spot. This one is well bred for this spot.
• #3 MISS TRICKY INDY (9-2) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 7 – 3

Sunland Park- Race 2

Post: 12:51 PM MT; $20.8k Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 12

• #5 PASSION BELLE (9-2) is the top pick. She seems to fit well enough here. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front running speed.
• #9 MARKED BY A STORM (6-1) should be competitive in this spot. She goes out for the Cappellucci barn and gets Juarez in the irons.
• #3 BELLA Y SOFIA (4-1) could be in with a shot in this race and figures to be near the early lead.
• #4 D ORO SIS (5-1) should improve off the first start and with a step forward makes a lot of sense here.

Selections: 5 – 9 – 3 – 4

Sunland Park- Race 3

Post: 1:18 PM MT; $250k New Mexico Breeders' Oaks going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 6

• #1 DOER NOT A FAKER (5-2) looks best here. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Fincher and Fuentes.
• #4 TIZ A JOURNEY (8-5) has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #2 CRAFTY MONEY (7-2) could be in with a shot in this race. She could get the right setup in this race.
• #3 BELLAMUNDO (10-1) is a price horse and makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Sunland Park- Race 4

Post: 1:45 PM MT; $42.2k Allowance going 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #3 HOLOTTALUTE (9-2) gets the top selection. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #6 LEONAS GIRL (3-2) should improve off the first start and appears to be a major player in this race.
• #4 MISS FLUFFY (9-2) comes into the race in good form and looks to be a factor.
• #2 SOCIAL CLUB (8-1) is probably best to put underneath on most tickets but has to be respected going out for the combination of Fincher and Valdez.

Selections: 3 – 6 – 4 – 2

Sunland Park- Race 5

Post: 2:13 PM MT; $120k New Mexico State University H. going 1 mile 70 yards on dirt; Entries: 11

• #3 CHEESE TRAY (5-2) is the top pick. He may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #1 THUNDER DOME (4-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He looks to be the class of the field.
• #6 STRAWBERRY WHISKY (6-1) shouldn't have trouble with the 1 mile 70 yard distance. This one could get the right setup in this race.
• #11 JET N G (7-2) seems to fit well enough here.

Selections: 3 – 1 – 6 – 11

Sunland Park- Race 6

Post: 2:43 PM MT; $250k New Mexico Breeders' Derby going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 12

• #2 THRUTHESTORM (7-2) looks best here. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #1 ANTONIOS MARK (5-1) seems to fit well enough here. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #9 SMARTSREALGOOD (12-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done.
• #12 STILL IN THE TRAP (4-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 9 – 12

Sunland Park- Race 7

Post: 3:13 PM MT; $100k Bill Thomas Memorial S. going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 7

• #1 TRUTH SEEKER (2-1) gets the top selection. He has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
• #3 MINISTER OF SOUL (9-2) appears to be a major player in this race. He runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #6 GODDARD (6-1) should be competitive in this spot. He shouldn't have trouble with the 6 1/2 furlong distance. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #2 BYE BYE BOBBY (8-1) has to be respected going out for the combination of Fincher and Fuentes.

Selections: 1 – 3 – 6 – 2

Sunland Park- Race 8

Post: 3:41 PM MT; $300k Sunland Park Oaks going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 DOINITTHEHARDWAY (2-1) is the top pick. She could get the right setup in this race. This one has races good enough to beat this group.
• #1 FLYING CONNECTION (9-5) should be part of the early pace in this spot. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #5 UNA PALABRA (5-1) goes out for the Belvoir barn and gets Hernandez in the irons. This one comes into the race in really good form.
• #6 DON'T GET PICKLED (8-1) shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/16 mile distance.

Selections: 4 – 1 – 5 – 6

Sunland Park- Race 9

Post: 4:14 PM MT; $100k Harry Henson H. going 1 mile on dirt; Entries: 9

• #7 EDA (6-5) looks best here. She could get the right setup in this race. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
• #8 LADY COMMISSIONER (6-1) may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one goes out for the Hernandez barn and gets Corbett in the irons.
• #9 CLOCKSTRIKESTWELVE (9-2) has been keeping solid company in recent efforts.
• #4 YANKEE DOLLAR (5-1) seems to be running for the minor placings in this contest. She should be part of the early pace in this spot.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 9 – 4

Sunland Park- Race 10

Post: 4:45 PM MT; $600k Sunland Park Derby going 1 1/8 miles on dirt; Entries: 7

• #6 HARD TO FIGURE (2-1) gets the top selection. He looks to be the class of the field. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #3 FORT BRAGG (4-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one could get the right setup in this race.
• #4 HENRY Q (3-1) will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #5 ONE IN VERMILLION (6-1) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 4 – 5

Sunland Park- Race 11

Post: 5:25 PM MT; $36.8k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #5 MARKED MONEY (2-1) is the top pick. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #7 CINZENTO BOY (5-2) should improve off the first start and should be competitive in this spot. This one projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #9 TATAS JOE MARK (6-1) has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #8 NOGAL CANYON (12-1) is a price horse and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He should be part of the early pace in this spot. This one could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 9 – 8

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