Sunland Park: Derby Prep Looks For First Kentucky Derby Champ Sunday

The Sunland Park Derby is a 50 point prep race for the Kentucky. The race has yet to produce a winner on the first Saturday in May. In fact it is perhaps most famous for being the Justify smoke screen en route to a triple crown.

Justify’s Smoke Screen

Although the race has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, one of the most famous story lines surrounding the race includes a triple crown. Bob Baffert had a really good colt in 2018. Normally this would have been identified in 2017, but Justify did not race as a 2 year old.

The horse was ready to go and Baffert snuck him into a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. Justify won and thus began down the Derby trail. Immediately connections started pointing to the Sunland Derby. This it appears was just a ruse to ensure that the allowance race they wanted would fill at Santa Anita.

It is not uncommon for connections to avoid entering races if they feel there is a monster in there. This can cause races to be left unfilled and the races are not run. Such an occurrence would have caused a disruption to young colt’s plan.

In the end Justify romped in the allowance and continued on to a Santa Anita Derby and a triple crown.

Sunland Derby Analysis

Sunland Park Race 11

Post: 5:15 PM MT; Purse: $500,000 Sunland Park Derby, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 STRAIGHT UP G (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's class & pace numbers.
• #4 SLOW DOWN ANDY (2-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed figures.
• #2 CLASSIC MOMENT (7-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
• #5 BYE BYE BOBBY (9-2) has run well when stretching out. Maybe this one can pull the modest upset.

Selections: 8-4-2-5

Sunday Undercard Analysis

Sunland Park Race 1

Post: 12:25 PM MT; Purse: $28,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 BIG SKIPPER (7-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & breeding.
• #1 MISS LUCKY LADY (4-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #3 RAPID EXPANSION (7-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance & pace numbers.
• #5 AXEL STEEL (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & race flow.

Selections: 4-1-3-5

Sunland Park Race 2

Post: 12:51 PM MT; Purse: $39,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

• #4 DIABOLICAL MIGHT (9-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's class & power rating.
• #3 HALF COURT SAM (7-2) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & pace numbers.
• #1 QUANTUM BULL (2-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #6 CANYON DEL ORO (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & race flow.

Selections: 4-3-1-6

Sunland Park Race 3

Post: 1:18 PM MT; Purse: $19,100 Starter Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #4 SUNSCREEN (3-1) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
• #2 KRIS WHO (5-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
• #3 FULL OF DRIVE (9-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
• #8 DADDY WHAT IF (4-1) makes some sense on paper but just doesn’t seem to stack up as well as the odds would suggest in this one.

Selections: 4-2-3-8

Sunland Park Race 4

Post: 1:45 PM MT; Purse: $100,000 Bill Thomas Memorial S., 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #7 MINISTER OF SOUL (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in form & power rating.
• #2 TEAM MERCHANTS (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & class.
• #6 EL CHAVO DEL OCHO (7-2) has been running against better and may enjoy a little relief today.
• #4 GODDARD (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.

Selections: 7-2-6-4

Sunland Park Race 5

Post: 2:13 PM MT; Purse: $48,600 Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #2 TUTTA TERLINGUA (12-1) is in with a big chance for an upset. This one looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including connections & power rating.
• #6 COUNT THEM AGAIN (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's class & form.
• #10 TIGHT FITTIN JEANS (5-1) rates out well on overall power rating, but the post is a bit of a challenge.
• #8 PROOFSINTHEPUDDIN (8-1) goes out for a solid barn.

Selections: 2-6-10-8

Sunland Park Race 6

Post: 2:42 PM MT; Purse: $100,000 Harry Henson H., 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #6 OUR IRIS ROSE (3-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating.
• #3 BOLD REY (12-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
• #2 GEMSTONE GAL (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & race flow.
• #4 SHARAPOVA (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & connections.

Selections: 6-3-2-4

Sunland Park Race 7

Post: 3:12 PM MT; Purse: $120,000 New Mexico State University H., 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 12

• #1 SEA EMPEROR (6-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
• #4 JET N G (4-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & stamina.
• #9 STORM BAYOU (15-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & form.
• #8 EVACUEE (9-2) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & power rating.

Selections: 1-4-9-8

Sunland Park Race 8

Post: 3:42 PM MT; Purse: $250,000 New Mexico Breeders' Oaks, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #3 BELLA DONA (6-5) has a great shot in the race given the speed & pace numbers.
• #1 CORRINA CORRINA (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
• #4 RIGHT FOR YOU (5-1) has also run against some really solid fillies thus far in the career.
• #6 DESERT SPIRIT (5-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 3-1-4-6

Sunland Park Race 9

Post: 4:12 PM MT; Purse: $300,000 Sunland Park Oaks, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #8 QUEEN OF THORNS (4-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form.
• #6 OPTIONALITY (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & power rating.
• #9 MANORELLI (8-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
• #10 MISS HARD KNOCKS (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.

Selections: 8-6-9-10

Sunland Park Race 10

Post: 4:42 PM MT; Purse: $250,000 New Mexico Breeders' Derby, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #9 MASSIVE ROAR (4-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed figures.
• #3 DIABOLICAL STORM (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & record at the distance.
• #5 JET SET WARRIOR (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & pace numbers.
• #10 WHERES BRAYDEN (8-1) could potentially get the right setup in this race at a very nice price.

Selections: 9-3-5-10

Sunland Park Race 11

Post: 5:15 PM MT; Purse: $500,000 Sunland Park Derby, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

Sunland Park Derby analysis provided above.

Selections: 8-4-2-5

Sunland Park Race 12

Post: 5:45 PM MT; Purse: $35,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #6 IZA DADDY (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance & pace numbers.
• #10 SEXY DEXY (8-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & power rating.
• #3 WE'RE JUST SAYIN (4-1) has run against some really solid players in previous races and shouldn’t be discounted.
• #1 GORKY PARK (10-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's stamina & connections.

Selections: 6-10-3-1

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