Tampa Bay Downs Offers Derby Points Saturday, Sam F. Davis Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs Saturday features the Sam F. Davis Stakes. The winner will receive points toward the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 1

Post: 12:25 PM ET; $32k Maiden Special Weight going 1 mile 40 yards on dirt; Entries: 8

• #8 ARCH RUNNER (2-1) debuts here and gets the top selection. He goes out for the Pletcher barn and gets Saez in the irons. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #7 CHAMPAGNE JUAN (5-2) debuts here and should be competitive in this spot. He has to be respected going out for the combination of Clement and Camacho. This one is well bred for this spot.
• #2 SUERTE (5-2) has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
• #1 CRAFTY KING (10-1) is a price horse and goes out for the Bennett barn and gets Ferrer in the irons. This one shouldn't have trouble with the 1 mile 40 yard distance.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 2 – 1

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 2

Post: 12:55 PM ET; $14k Claiming going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 TAP FIRST (1-1) is the top pick. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
• #7 LIL BULL (10-1) is a price horse and seems to fit well enough here. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #8 MISTER FERNANDO (4-1) could be a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
• #5 CLEAR TO CLOSE (30-1) is the type that may be able to dink up into the number at a nice price.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 8 – 5

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 3

Post: 1:24 PM ET; $27k Maiden Special Weight going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #4 MATT DOYLE (8-5) looks best here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #2 FUN AT THE FORT (5-1) isn't without hope. He makes sense on speed figures.
• #3 LITTLE BIG (7-2) will likely be out on or near the lead and will look to hold off the charge to the wire.
• #8 BUCKTOWN (6-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 3 – 8

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 4

Post: 1:53 PM ET; $20.5k Claiming going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 14

• #2 INITFORTHELOVE (8-1) gets the top selection. This one should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #13 ULTIMATE IRONY (8-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #11 BIRD'S EYE VIEW (6-1) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run.
• #12 ON THE COUCH (3-1) should be competitive in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.

Selections: 2 – 13- 11- 12

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 5

Post: 2:24 PM ET; $32k Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 11

• #5 BROKEN HEARTS BAY (4-1) is the top pick. She has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #9 TITA MIMOSA (9-2) debuts here and should be competitive in this spot. She has to be respected going out for the combination of Rodriguez and Gallardo.
• #1 RELAY (5-2) should improve off the first start and is well bred for this spot. This one shouldn't have trouble with the 6 furlong distance.
• #2 ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (6-1) makes sense based on the debut speed figure.

Selections: 5 – 9 – 1 – 2

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 6

Post: 2:56 PM ET; $28k Allowance going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 11

• #9 GABBY SQUARED (6-1) looks best here. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here.
• #11 SATURDAY NITE GIRL (8-1) should be competitive in this spot. She has winning races in the past performances. This one will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late.
• #7 INANNA'S QUEST (8-1) makes sense on speed figures. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Sillaman and Suarez.
• #8 SWEET DUTCHESS (5-2) has the top overall power rating in the group.

Selections: 9 – 11- 7 – 8

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 7

Post: 3:27 PM ET; $50k Minaret S. going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 9

• #5 CARAMEL SWIRL (7-5) gets the top selection. She has races good enough to beat this group. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
• #1 DRIFAROS (6-1) isn't without hope. She will likely be in the first flight of runners and should be in with a chance late. This one goes out for the Pompay barn and gets Centeno in the irons.
• #6 ZAINALARAB (12-1) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #3 MUSIC CITY STAR (10-1) is a price horse and goes out for the Joseph barn and gets Ortiz in the irons.

Selections: 5 – 1 – 6 – 3

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 8

Post: 4:16 PM ET; $100k Pelican S. going 6 furlongs on dirt; Entries: 11

• #5 SIBELIUS (9-5) is the top pick. He has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #3 WILLY BOI (3-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He runs evenly and looks to get a very fair pace scenario here.
• #10 GATSBY (10-1) is a price horse that could get a favorable set up.
• #2 PACO'S PICO (8-1) is an outsider that very well could grind his way into the number.

Selections: 5 – 3 – 10- 2

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 9

Post: 4:48 PM ET; $150k Suncoast S. going 1 mile 40 yards on dirt; Entries: 9

• #1 WONDER WHEEL (1-1) looks best here. She has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one may benefit from a hot pace up front.
• #9 JULIA SHINING (5-2) could get the right setup in this race.
• #2 OPUS FORTY TWO (10-1) projects to sit mid pack and come with one run. This one has to be respected going out for the combination of Delacour and Centeno.
• #5 DREAMING OF SNOW (15-1) goes out for the Bennett barn and gets Camacho in the irons.

Selections: 1 – 9 – 2 – 5

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 10

Post: 5:18 PM ET; $250k Sam F. Davis S. going 1 1/16 miles on dirt; Entries: 12

• #12 ZYDECEAUX (20-1) could pull a massive upset. He has races that are fast enough and has run against some really strong horses.
• #11 LITIGATE (5-1) appears to be a major player in this race. He should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well timed run at the leaders.
• #9 CHAMPIONS DREAM (9-2) has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
• #10 DREAMING OF KONA (12-1) is a price horse and should be part of the early pace in this spot.

Selections: 12- 11- 9 – 10

Tampa Bay Downs- Race 11

Post: 5:48 PM ET; $27k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 miles on turf; Entries: 13

• #6 JUNIPER'S MOON (5-1) is the top pick. She makes sense on speed figures. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
• #8 JUST A SPLASH (6-1) shouldn't have trouble with the 1 1/16 mile distance.
• #12 THEGIRLFROMIRELAND (6-1) has really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
• #5 FINANCIAL ADVICE (3-1) debuts here and has to be respected going out for the combination of Brown and Ortiz.

Selections: 6 – 8 – 12- 5

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