Tampa Bay Downs: Sam F. Davis Derby Prep Saturday

The Sam F. Davis from Tampa Bay Downs offers 10 Kentucky Derby points to the winning horse. It joins the El Camino Real as the last of the early 10 point prep races.

Sam F. Davis

Tampa Bay Downs Race 10

Post: 4:54 PM ET; Purse: $250,000 Sam F. Davis S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

• #8 SHIPSATIONAL (6-1) will be a bit of an upsetter here but this runner has good early pace numbers and has backed it up with speed figures that others will have to run to here.
• #7 MAKE IT BIG (9-2) goes out for a respectable barn in this spot and could be a big player in the race.
• #3 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (3-1) should be able to work out a solid trip from the 3 hole.
• #11 STRIKE HARD (6-1) has been running against solid horses up to this point. The wide trip is a bit concerning, but this one looks talented if he can work out a trip.

Selections: 8-7-3-11

Under Card Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs Race 1

Post: 12:11 PM ET; Purse: $34,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

• #5 MONEY SUPPLY (9-5) is the morning line favorite as first time starter which leads me to believe that the word is out that this one can fly.
• #1 CAMINERO (9-2) has the most desireable past performances of the experience runners. I normally prefer experience, but the new shooters seem to hold the strongest hand here.
• #7 QUALITY G (4-1) is really well bred to take on this field and show early success.
• #4 BOURBON READY (7-2) is another firster with big upside. Again, the short price implies that this horse has some buzz on the backside.

Selections: 5-1-7-4

Tampa Bay Downs Race 2

Post: 12:41 PM ET; Purse: $29,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 14

• #9 SHE'S JUST QUALITY (20-1) goes out for a solid barn. Tampa turf racing can be extremely chaotic and maybe this one can come home at a price.
• #14 APPROACH THE DAWN (8-1) has already hit the board on the turf and it doesn’t take much to turn hitting the board into a victory with such close finishes.
• #8 CIELO D'ORO (3-1) could get a really nice pace setup here and has speed figures to back it up.
• #1 NAVAL BATTLE (5-2) is another who’s been close at the distance, I just don’t love short prices on the Tampa grass.

Selections: 9-14-8-1

Tampa Bay Downs Race 3

Post: 1:11 PM ET; Purse: $34,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile 40 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #3 AFJAN (3-1) has a solid foundation heading into the race and will be tough to top.
• #1 MACALLAN (5-2) looks to be in top form right now and could throw up a top notch performance.
• #2 GIANT'S FIRE (8-1) should have the breeding to get the distance. The price is worth the chance for this likely front runner.
• #5 ROYAL COURT (10-1) has hit the board at the distance before and maybe at 10-1 this one can reverse it’s previous fate and find the winner’s circle.

Selections: 3-1-2-5

Tampa Bay Downs Race 4

Post: 1:43 PM ET; Purse: $29,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14

• #11 BAHAMIAN CLUB (7-2) looks ready to put up a big performance in this spot
• #14 STANDUP COMEDIENNE (10-1) has the best speed figures of anyone thus far in their careers, which is never a negative.
• #1 REQUESTFORPROPOSAL (9-5) has similar speed figures to the #14 and draws a better spot, but the price is too short for this type of race.
• #5 NOVEL IDEA (10-1) ran against tougher last out and may enjoy the class relief.

Selections: 11-14-1-5

Tampa Bay Downs Race 5

Post: 2:13 PM ET; Purse: $34,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 12

• #5 TRUST THE NUMBERS (9-5) is a first time starter for a barn that has no trouble scoring at first asking.
• #3 NAPA CANDY (15-1) has breeding to suggest this price is flat out wrong. If you’re looking for an upset, this one might be the key horse.
• #9 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF (10-1) has experience and the price is right. A definite player here.
• #2 LULI'S DANCER (30-1) has hit the board at this distance and won’t likely contend for the win, but could make for some spicy vertical payouts.

Selections: 5-3-9-2

Tampa Bay Downs Race 6- Minaret Stakes

Post: 2:45 PM ET; Purse: $50,000 Minaret S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

This race kicks off the first of 4 stakes races on the card and looks like a competitive field.

• #2 NIGHT CAP (7-2) should be forward from the outset and may be able to steal this one
• #5 POSEIDON'S PASSION (9-2) comes into the race in really solid form and should be ready to throw up a top performance.
• #8 QUINOA TIFAH (5-2) has the top speed figures in the group and is worth a look here as the favorite.
• #6 MY DESTINY (6-1) has run against some really good horses in previous starts and may be able to spring a minor upset.

Selections: 2-5-8-6

Tampa Bay Downs Race 7- Pelican Stakes.

Post: 3:18 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Pelican S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #3 BABY YODA (6-5) will be forward from the latch break and should be able to carry these around.
• #4 BANK ON SHEA (7-2) is a hard knocking horse who always seems to in and around the money.
• #2 KING GUILLERMO (6-1) is most well known for his huge upset victory on the Derby trail at Tampa Bay. He definitely fits in this spot, but I am worried about name recognition money making this one unplayable.
• #6 CAJUN CASANOVA (8-1) is from a barn that is always dangerous in these types of spots.

Selections: 3-4-2-6 (Best Bet: #3 BABY YODA)

Tampa Bay Downs Race 8- Suncoast Stakes

Post: 3:49 PM ET; Purse: $150,000 Suncoast S., 1 mile 40 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #2 NEST (3-5) looks to tower over this field on paper. Put this one in the category of likeliest winner, worst bet on the card. Unless you get real creative elsewhere there is almost no meat on this bone.
• #3 ALITTLELOVEANDLUCK (5-1) looks to be in the best form of any of the rest and probably poses the biggest threat to the top pick.
• #6 PEACEFUL SURPRISE (10-1) has a great record and the distance and is a likely trifecta horse.
• #8 PRINCESS ELIN (12-1) will have early speed, but with the presence of Nest this one may end up having to do the dirty work in trying to soften up the chalk. If Nest doesn’t break maybe this one can get on with it to the wire.

Selections: 2-3-6-8

Tampa Bay Downs Race 9

Post: 4:23 PM ET; Purse: $30,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14

• #8 EDITOR AT LARGE (9-5) runs fast early and doesn’t stop. You can’t win if you don’t hit the front so I like these types even on turf where speed tends not to hold as it does on dirt.
• #14 APPLECROSS (7-2) should have plenty left in the tank if horse’s tire late, but the outside post is a challenge.
• #3 GIGGLE FACTORY (5-1) has run against tougher fields than this albeit slower than these on speed figures. Maybe the class relief helps this one.
• #10 GLADYS (5-1) could get a decent pace setup, but it will be dependent on finding a way to negotiate a ground saving trip after breaking from the outside.

Selections: 8-14-3-10

Tampa Bay Downs Race 10- Sam F. Davis Derby Prep

Post: 4:54 PM ET; Purse: $250,000 Sam F. Davis S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 13

• Sam F. Davis analysis provided above.

Selections: 8-7-3-11

Tampa Bay Downs Race 11

Post: 5:33 PM ET; Purse: $22,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14

• #5 UNLEVERAGED (3-1) tops this group in a lot of factors including class which I always feel matters a lot more on grass.
• #12 DREAM LINER (7-2) runs similar speed numbers to the #5 but will have a much more challenging trip from the 12 hole.
• #9 TOSS (10-1) comes into the race in solid form. Maybe this one can get the job done at a price.
• #3 SOBERANO (30-1) is a highly unlikely winner, but may be able to trip out to get up for a piece. At 30-1 you should get some value no matter where in the top 4 this one shows up.

Selections: 5-12-9-3