Turf Paradise Friday: Cactus Wre, Cactus Flower Stakes Analysis

A pair of 6 1/2 furlong stakes races highlight the Friday card at Turf Paradise. The Cactus Wren and Cactus Flower will kickoff the thoroughbred portion of the card.

Friday Stakes Analysis

Turf Paradise Race 2- Cactus Wren Stakes

Post: 1:20 PM MT; Purse: $30,000 Cactus Wren S., 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

• #4 RAMBLIN' MAN (6-5) has a great shot in the race given the recent races run by this one.
• #6 HEY PILGRIM (2-1) has the top speed figures among the group and is definitely worth a look.
• #1 MYSTIC REALITY (6-1) has kept solid company given in recent races that figures to give him at least a puncher’s chance here.
• #5 MOONLITE GRAHAM (9-2) could get a nice set up in the race. If that happens this one has a shot to get there.

Selections: 4-6-1-5

Turf Paradise Race 3- Cactus Flower Stakes

Post: 1:50 PM MT; Purse: $30,000 Cactus Flower S., 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #5 ARIZONA SUN (9-5) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
• #2 FOUNDATION (2-1) is worth a look here. This one is likely to be on the engine early and may be tough to reel in late.
• #3 LAST PUNCH (8-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
• #4 WHO B DAT (5-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 5-2-3-4

Friday Undercard Analysis

Turf Paradise Race 1- Quarter Horses

Post: 12:55 PM MT; Purse: $25,500 Allowance, 300 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 8

• #4 VALENTIN JQM (7-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.
• #8 TURBULENT KISSES (4-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
• #2 FIRST LADY PERRY (5-2) looks competitive in this spot but there are others that I prefer.
• #7 MRS ANGEL JESS (5-1) is largely a connection play.

Selections: 4-8-2-7

Turf Paradise Race 2

Post: 1:20 PM MT; Purse: $30,000 Cactus Wren S., 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

• Cactus Wren Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 4-6-1-5

Turf Paradise Race 3

Post: 1:50 PM MT; Purse: $30,000 Cactus Flower S., 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• Cactus Flower Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 5-2-3-4

Turf Paradise Race 4

Post: 2:26 PM MT; Purse: $11,200 Maiden Claiming, 4 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #9 SNOOZY SUZY (7-2) looks like a big player edging the field in a number of key categories including speed & power rating. I like this one more if it isn’t the favorite in this maiden claimer race.
• #3 DATQUICKCAT (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
• #10 LOTSA LENA (5-2) has speed figures to be successful here, but its hard to trust them earned at short distances against this level of competition.
• #5 CRITICAL CONDITION (12-1) is a solid price in a fairly weak field. Maybe taking a price like this is well worth it in this spot.

Selections: 9-3-10-5

Turf Paradise Race 5

Post: 2:57 PM MT; Purse: $23,800 Maiden Optional Claiming, About 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

• #2 PLUMA (4-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
• #6 SLEW SOUTH (8-1) has a great shot in the race given the recent speed figures.
• #7 SEVEN POINTS (3-1) comes from solid connections and will be on the front end in the early stages.
• #3 LEMON DROP LADY (9-2) is another horse who is in with a shot. In these types of races there are very few outcomes that surprise me.

Selections: 2-6-7-3

Turf Paradise Race 6

Post: 3:32 PM MT; Purse: $18,900 Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #8 PASSED BY PAUL (12-1) probably needs to get measured early fractions, but there is a scenario where that could happen here. This one does have the top in the money percentage at the distance, so I’ll play the upset.
• #1 MISSED THE BOAT (3-1) is another more accomplished runner who is also somewhat of a mile specialist.
• #7 MAGIC MOSCO (8-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed figures
• #10 SURPRSINGLYPERFECT (9-2) looks competitive on paper but the wider post isn’t totally ideal in this spot.

Selections: 8-1-7-10

Turf Paradise Race 7

Post: 4:03 PM MT; Purse: $27,300 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

• #2 ONEFINEDAY (15-1) is an intriguing player. I tend to put a lot of weight in speed figures and this one has the top ones in the group. The price is right so I’ll take a swing.
• #8 FIRST PROMISE (6-1) wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle. The numbers stack up well enough for this runner.
• #4 I AM YOURS (4-1) has the top overall power rating in the group and makes sense here
• #7 WORKIN NINETOFIVE (6-1) seems to do his best running at this distance so maybe this one can get the job done in a race that looks wide open on paper.

Selections: 2-8-4-7

Turf Paradise Race 8

Post: 4:37 PM MT; Purse: $14,140 Claiming, About 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 10

• #9 THETRAILERGUY (3-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
• #1 THIRTY SECONDS OUT (5-1) will likely be involved early in the race and could get a good trip.
• #2 BOB'S ALL IN (10-1) looks to have to have been running against the toughest fields to this point. I wish the speed numbers were a bit better, but maybe this field wakes him up a bit.
• #4 MONUMENTAL SEVEN (12-1) has speed figures to be successful, but I’m a little more skeptical of speed figures on turf than I would be if the race were being run on the dirt.

Selections: 9-1-2-4

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