Turf Paradise Friday, February 11: Pair of Stakes to Kick Off Weekend

Turf Paradise wraps on Friday of this week. As the big tracks heat up, the Arizona track offers a pair of stakes to start the weekend.

Stakes Analysis

Turf Paradise Race 5- Turf Paradise Turf Stakes

Post: 2:22 PM MT; Purse: $60,000 Turf Paradise Turf S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 10

• #7 CARIBOU CLUB (5-2) has the speed figures to make this one a major player. Although speed figures are less reliable on turf surfaces, this one grades out well enough in other areas to be a major threat.
• #3 TIGER DAD (7-2) gets a cozy inside draw and could get a really nice trip in this race. The talent level definitely seems to fit in this contingent.
• #6 NOBLE PURSUIT (5-1) goes out for good connections at the track and will likely be ready to put forth a good performance.
• #1 ZUMURUDEE (20-1) draws the rail and will have to go early. It is a bit of stretch, but maybe this one can set pace and hold for at least minor placings.

Selections: 7-3-6-1

Turf Paradise Race 8- Glendale Stakes

Post: 3:59 PM MT; Purse: $60,000 Glendale S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 12

• #10 BACCHANALIA (6-1) is a bit of an outside, but one that I like a lot. This one boasts the best in the money percentage of any of the runners in the race. With the close finishes that often occur in turf racing, I love having a fringe contender who is almost sure to be in the frame at the wire.
• #7 NORMA JEAN B. (3-1) is favored and comes to the race in great form. This one has to be respected.
• #1 QUIET SECRETARY (9-2) can certainly post times that are on pace with the top of this market. I wouldn’t be shocked if this one wins, but I prefer others.
• #6 COVER VERSION (8-1) is interesting when combing through past fields. This one has been keeping solid company and that can be a recipe for an upset.

Selections: 10-7-1-6

Undercard Analysis

Turf Paradise Race 1-Quarter Horse Race

Post: 12:35 PM MT; Purse: $18,000 Maiden, 350 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 12

Quarter horse racing is a unique event. The horses launch from the gate and have the length of the stretch to cross the wire. The embedded video courtesy of the Turf Paradise YouTube channel shows a race at 440 yards. These horses will have nearly one football field less to run. In these events overall speed matters, but perhaps the most important element is the gate break.

I often think the greatest handicapping tool when it comes to these runners is on track appearance, so if you are looking to play the first at Turf Paradise make sure to check out the track feed and watch the pre-race proceedings.

• #2 BH FREE DROP BILLY (5-2) has hit the board at this level before. The speed index numbers on this runner are tops in the group.
• #10 RBDOCSBESTBET (7-2) is another one who has hit the board at this distance.
• #5 JESSES EMPIRE (5-1) is an interesting runner. At 25% in the money this one shouldn’t be totally discounted.
• #7 HP JUST A STAR (8-1) has past experience and will break from the middle of the track. That can occasionally lead to more possibility of bumping.

Selections: 2-10-5-7

Turf Paradise Race 2

Post: 1:00 PM MT; Purse: $15,120 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #4 MISCHIEF MAMA (5-1) has been successful at 6 furlongs in the past and has run against solid fields. I like this one in a small upset.
• #2 ELDORADO DREAM (6-1) looks to be a pace presence from the inside and could be a challenge to real in if there isn’t early pressure.
• #1 CAMEO SHORES (2-1) is the horse to beat based on speed figures. This one will also be forwardly placed which adds to the appeal. I do think the pace just to the outside could compromise this one a bit.
• #6 BARBARIUS (10-1) hits the board at a 50% percent clip under these conditions and is a major player for vertical key bets.

Selections: 4-2-1-6

Turf Paradise Race 3

Post: 1:25 PM MT; Purse: $14,140 Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #3 BOLD REY (7-2) appears to have the best speed figures and has been running against solid foes. I like this one to pull the minor upset here.
• #5 JUST GRACE (2-1) will take money because the recent runs have been solid and the connections hit at the highest percentage of any other jockey trainer combo in the race.
• #7 HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY (5-1) is another class player in this field. This one offers a bit better price, but less upside than the 2 at the top of the market.
• #2 IKNOWYOURFACE (10-1) should be in the mix from the first jump and rates out well enough to be a factor throughout the run. This one probably won’t win but could really help juice up the trifectas.

Selections: 3-5-7-2 (Best Bet: #3 BOLD REY)

Turf Paradise Race 4

Post: 1:52 PM MT; Purse: $26,600 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

• #6 MULLIGAN (3-1) has run against some really good foes in recent events. The jockey and trainer have a combined win percentage near 60.
• #4 BLACK DROP (5-1) has the top speed figures in the group and could make some hay at a decent price.
• #5 RED VENUS (7-2) grades out well in a lot of key handicapping factors, but doesn’t top the field in any of them. I definitely would have this one somewhere in the top spot on the tickets, but there are other more likely.
• #7 EARLYNTHEMORN (8-1) hits the board at nearly 50% at the 6 furlong distance and should be worth an include in the verticals.

Selections: 6-4-5-7

Turf Paradise Race 5

Post: 2:22 PM MT; Purse: $60,000 Turf Paradise Turf S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 10

• Turf Paradise Turf Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 7-3-6-1

Turf Paradise Race 6

Post: 2:52 PM MT; Purse: $11,480 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #5 A DIME FOR ME (3-1) has been running well lately and grades out on my class numbers far above the others in this race.
• #4 WILLING TO BURN (6-1) goes out for top connections and could surprise at a price.
• #7 GALILETA (12-1) has a chance to get forward and stay on. I’m not sure that means a win or a hard trying 4th, but I think this one will definitely take up a spot in the number somewhere.
• #6 SHARMEL (10-1) doesn’t jump off the page as a major player, but sneakily hasn’t committed any of the deadly sins I deem to be negative handicapping factors. With that in mind this one offers decent value at a fat price.

Selections: 5-4-7-6

Turf Paradise Race 7

Post: 3:28 PM MT; Purse: $15,960 Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

• #1 CHRISTINE'S JACK (9-2) looks to be sitting on a big performance here. I think this one is in with a great chance to pull the upset.
• #5 PASSED BY PAUL (5-1) is another fringe contender on the morning line, but grades out well in several factors including speed figures. I wouldn’t fall asleep on this one.
• #6 UNION BROTHER (3-1) has to be respected in this spot. This one should be forward and goes out for proven connections. Past performances indicate this one is more than capable of putting up numbers to beat this field.
• #4 PRINCE ALI (4-1) very well could be the class of this field and is in with a major chance.

Selections: 1-5-6-4

Turf Paradise Race 8

Post: 3:59 PM MT; Purse: $60,000 Glendale S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 12

• Glendale Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 10-7-1-6

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