Australia vs Fiji Rugby World Cup Prediction, Odds & Picks: Will the Wallabies Survive a Scare in Saint-Etienne?

In the history of the Rugby World Cup, Australia have never failed to reach at least the quarterfinals. However, a spot in the last eight of the 2023 Rugby World Cup doesn’t look like a formality heading into Sunday’s matchup with Fiji (11:45 am ET, Peacock).

The Wallabies did what they needed to do in their tournament opener against Georgia a week ago, scoring four tries to pick up a bonus point on the way to a 35-15 win.

But it took 70 minutes to pick up that valuable fourth try, and they allowed Georgia to score two tries, which they had done only once before in a World Cup match against one of the major nations.

A better performance will be required for Australia to prevail in Saint-Etienne, especially after Fiji came heartbreakingly close to stunning Wales in Bordeaux last Sunday.

After trailing 32-14 with under ten minutes left, Fiji tallied two tries to pull within a converted try of a stunning comeback. Then, with their final chance, the ball went out wide to Semi Radradra with open space and the try line meters away, only for Radradra to drop the ball and Fiji’s upset hopes with it.

As agonizing as that had to be for Fiji, they will no doubt be full of belief for their matchup with Australia. As a result, the two-time Rugby World Cup winners will need to dig deep to all but ensure that their record of reaching every quarterfinal remains intact.

Australia vs Fiji Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Australia -5.5 (-110)
• Fiji +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Australia -218
• Fiji +190
• Draw +2500

Over/Under

• Over 50.5 (-115)
• Under 50.5 (-105)

Will Fiji Erase Seven Decades of Futility Against Australia?

Had Radradra scored and the conversion had been successful, Fiji would have recorded their 15th all-time win over a Tier 1 nation.

The most recent one came in their final Rugby World Cup warm-up game against England, a 30-22 win at Twickenham last month.

Two of those 14 Tier 1 wins are against Australia, all the way back in 1952 and 1954. Since Fiji’s 18-16 win in Sydney on June 26, 1954, the Wallabies have 17 wins and one draw against Fiji, and the closest game in the 2000s is a 28-13 result at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

But if there was ever a moment for the drought to end, this is it.

Australia’s win over Georgia was their first win in six matches in 2023, and it was just their sixth win in their last 23 matches dating back to 2021.

Last Six Matches for Australia

• Australia 35-15 Georgia (2023 Rugby World Cup)
• France 41-17 Australia (Rugby World Cup warm-up game)
• New Zealand 23-20 Australia (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Australia 7-38 New Zealand (2023 Rugby Championship)
• Australia 31-34 Argentina (2023 Rugby Championship)
• South Africa 43-12 Australia (2023 Rugby Championship)

For Fiji, things are headed in the other direction.

Their Rugby World Cup prep started by sweeping Tonga, Samoa, and Japan in the Pacific Nations Cup, continued with a solid showing in a 34-17 loss to France–it was a seven-point game at one point in the second half–and wrapped up with the win over England in London.

Last Six Matches for Fiji

• Wales 32-26 Fiji (2023 Rugby World Cup)
• England 22-30 Fiji (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• France 34-17 Fiji (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Japan 12-35 Fiji (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)
• Samoa 19-33 Fiji (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)
• Fiji 36-20 Tonga (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)

The near-miss against Wales should have only reinforced that advancing out of Pool C is very much a realistic goal.

Fiji haven’t made it to the quarterfinals in a Rugby World Cup since 2007, but a win over Australia will put them in a very promising position with Georgia and Portugal to come.

Australia vs Fiji Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Fiji to win

Picks: Fiji +5.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Fiji ML (+190 at Bovada)

Australia have not won consecutive matches in almost two years. The last time that they did, they won five matches in a row, the last of which was a friendly win against Japan in October 2021.

Even when the Wallabies have won over the last two years, close games have been a regular occurrence. Three of their six wins have been by five or fewer points, while nine of their 17 defeats in that span have been by four or fewer points.

Simply put, the Wallabies cannot be trusted in this spot. Fiji may well not pull it off, but they are a much more worthwhile and sensible play than Australia.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.

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