England vs Japan Rugby World Cup Odds, Prediction & Picks: Will England Take Control of Pool D in Nice?

England went into the 2023 Rugby World Cup with little expected of them, their captain serving a suspension, and a run of poor form that extended back to last year. But after an impressive win over Argentina in their opener, the outlook is a little more optimistic ahead of their second Pool D clash with Japan (3:00 pm ET, Peacock)

Entering last weekend’s opener against Argentina, England had lost five of six games, and dating back to last year, had just four wins in their last 13 games. And with captain and primary goalkicker Owen Farrell sidelined due to suspension, they looked ripe for the upset.

Instead, the seemingly misplaced confidence from England’s camp proved to not be, at least for now, as the boot of George Ford and sound defense propelled them to a crucial 27-10 win over Argentina.

Can the good times keep rolling against Japan? The Brave Blossoms kicked off their tournament participation with a thrashing of Chile, scoring six tries in a 42-12 win last Sunday.

They are looking to upset a major nation in pool play for the third straight Rugby World Cup after shocking South Africa in 2015 and Ireland in 2019. A loss won’t be a mortal blow for their chances of reaching the quarters again after doing so as hosts four years ago, but a win would obviously be huge for those hopes with matches versus Samoa and Argentina to come.

England vs Japan Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• England -22.5 (-110)
• Japan +22.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• England -2500
• Japan +1000
• Draw +5000

Over/Under

• Over 52.5 (-110)
• Under 52.5 (-110)

Can Japan Close the Gap Against England?

To date, these two teams have met three times, with England winning all three.

England vs Japan Head-to-Head Results

• May 30, 1987 (1987 Rugby World Cup): England 60-7 Japan
• November 17, 2018 (2018 Autumn Internationals): England 35-15 Japan
• November 12, 2022 (2022 Autumn Nations Series): England 52-13 Japan

The win at Twickenham last November is one of England’s rare wins over the last year. It is also the only time over their last 24 matches that they have put 40 or more points on the scoreboard and one of only four times in that span that they have scored 30 or more.

Can Japan play England closer than in any of their previous meetings?

Since scoring 25+ points in their first three Autumn Nations Series matches last year, England have not scored 25+ points in back-to-back matches. At the same time, they have allowed fewer than 20 points in consecutive games only once in that same 11-match span.

Last Six Matches for England

• England 27-10 Argentina (2023 Rugby World Cup)
• England 22-30 Fiji (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Ireland 29-10 England (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• England 19-17 Wales (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Wales 20-9 England (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Ireland 29-16 England (2023 Six Nations)
• England 10-53 France (2023 Six Nations)

That said, Japan’s recent results against the better teams they have faced don’t exactly inspire a lot of optimism.

Last Six Matches for Japan

• Japan 42-12 Chile (2023 Rugby World Cup)
• Italy 42-21 Japan (Rugby World Cup warm-up)
• Japan 12-35 Fiji (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)
• Japan 21-16 Tonga (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)
• Japan 22-24 Samoa (2023 Pacific Nations Cup)
• France 35-17 Japan (2022 Autumn Nations Series)

Since finishing off a perfect run through 2019 Rugby World Cup pool play with a 28-21 win over Scotland, Japan have lost 11 consecutive matches against Tier 1 nations. And in those 11 losses, Japan have allowed 30 or more points eight times, with six opponents scoring 37 or more points.

England vs Japan Prediction and Picks

Prediction: England to win

Picks: 1) England/Japan over 52.5 (-110 at Bovada), 2) England team total over 36.5 points (-105 at Bovada), 3) England to score 2+ tries in each half

After scoring all of their points via the boot in their win over Argentina, I expect England’s approach against Japan to be a bit different.

Through the first five matches of this round of pool matches, four of five winning teams have scored four or more tries, with France vs Uruguay the outlier. Ireland vs Tonga, New Zealand vs Namibia, Samoa vs Chile, and Wales vs Portugal all featured four or more tries by the winning team.

I don’t discount Japan’s chances to be competitive and to put but the right vibes seem to be coming from England’s group, and I don’t think envision complacency creeping in.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetOnline
• BetUS
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.

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