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Japan vs Samoa Rugby World Cup Prediction, Odds & Picks: Teams with Much to Lose Tussle in Toulouse
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Today, one of the most important matches of 2023 Rugby World Cup pool play will take place in Toulouse. Japan and Samoa enter tonight’s match (3:00 pm ET, Peacock) with their quarterfinal hopes still alive, but only one team will still be in the hunt after the final horn sounds at Stadium de Toulouse.
Entering the contest, they and the rest of Pool D are looking up at England, who are on course for first place provided ahead of their pool finale against Samoa (October 7, 11:45 am ET, CNBC/Peacock).
But a place in the quarterfinals remains up for grabs for Japan, Samoa, and Argentina, and this match is a must-win one on both sides.
2023 Rugby World Cup Pool D Standings
- 1. England – 14 points (defeated Argentina, Japan with a bonus point, and Chile with a bonus point)
- 2. Samoa – 5 points (bonus point win vs Chile, loss vs Argentina)
- 3. Japan – 5 points (bonus point win vs Chile, loss vs England)
- 4. Argentina – 4 points (lost to England, defeated Samoa)
- 5. Chile – 0 points (lost to Japan, Samoa, and England)
Japan vs Samoa Odds
Odds are via Bovada.
Spread
- Japan +3 (-110)
- Samoa -3 (-110)
Moneyline
- Japan +130
- Samoa -145
- Draw +2400
Over/Under
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
Will Points Be at a Premium with So Much at Stake?
The odds for this match are rather interesting, given that Japan were heavily favored before their most recent matchup, which took place in the Pacific Nations Cup in July.
In that match in Sapporo, an under-strength Samoa side pulled a real upset, overcoming an early 10-0 deficit to record a 24-22 win.
Of the starting lineups from that match, ten players will start for Japan in today’s match, while only five of Samoa’s starting XV from the win will start in Toulouse.
That quintet does include Jonathan Taumateine and Tumua Manu, who scored second-half tries in Sapporo, as well as former Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano, who kicked a penalty and nailed all three of his conversions in what was his debut for Samoa.
Leali’ifano’s boot will be crucial against Japan, and he will be looking for a bounce-back performance tonight. In last Friday’s 19-10 loss to Argentina, he missed two penalties in the first half, which had a hand in Samoa missing out on a potentially pivotal losing bonus point.
Japan have had the upper hand in recent meetings with Samoa, including wins in the previous two Rugby World Cups. But it would stand to reason that if Japan were unable to win in July, a lineup featuring most of the same players from that match won’t be able to get it done against a more robust Samoa squad.
Recent Japan vs Samoa Head-to-Head Results
- July 22, 2023 (Sapporo – 2023 Pacific Nations Cup): 24-22 Samoa
- October 5, 2019 (Toyota City – 2019 Rugby World Cup): 38-19 Japan
- October 3, 2019 (Milton Keynes, England – 2015 Rugby World Cup): 26-5 Japan
- May 30, 2014 (Tokyo): 33-14 Japan
- T, 2012 (Tokyo): 27-26 Samoa
Samoa have not advanced beyond the pool stage at a Rugby World Cup since reaching the quarterfinal qualification playoffs in 1999, but are the stars aligning for that drought to end?
In 1999, they lost to Argentina but defeated Japan in pool play, and a win over Wales sent them to one of three playoff matches, where they lost to Scotland with a place in the quarters on the line.
With this match being so important for both Japan and Samoa, will we see a cagey contest in Toulouse?
Both teams piled up the points in easy wins over Chile but dug deep defensively in their tougher ties. England-Japan wasn’t decided until deep into the second half, while Argentina-Samoa wasn’t settled until a late penalty by Nicolas Sanchez.
Japan vs Samoa Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Samoa to win
Picks: Samoa -3 (-110 at Bovada) & Japan/Samoa under 48.5 (-110 at Bovada)
I think this will be a tight match, but I’m backing Samoa’s best to be better than Japan’s best in Toulouse.
That said, even if the Brave Blossoms go down tonight, they won’t be out of it, especially if they can snag a losing bonus point. If they are able to upend Argentina and England take care of business against Samoa, a second straight Rugby World Cup quarterfinal appearance could be theirs.
Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup
While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.
In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.
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