Argentina vs New Zealand Rugby World Cup Semifinal Prediction & Picks: Will the All Blacks Reach a Fifth Final?

After ending Ireland’s attempt at making history, New Zealand are a win away from reaching the Rugby World Cup final for the fifth time. To set up a matchup with either England or South Africa, they must see off a familiar foe in the form of Argentina in Friday’s semifinal face-off (3:00 pm ET, Peacock).

Argentina pulled the biggest upset of the quarterfinals by coming from behind to defeat Wales 29-17 in Marseille.

The Pumas, who finished second behind England in Pool D, trailed 10-0 a little over 20 minutes into the action and found themselves trailing 17-12 heading into the late stages versus Wales. But 17 unanswered points in the final 10-plus minutes saw them put Argentina into the semifinals for the third time, joining previous appearances in 2007 and 2015.

New Zealand, who finished second behind France in Pool A, were also underdogs for their match versus Ireland.

But whereas Argentina started slowly and finished strong, the All Bkacks had to make a strong start stand up in an enthralling 28-24 win. They jumped out to a 13-0 lead a quarter of the way through the contest then had to hold on in the second half as Ireland tried to get over the hump.

For New Zealand, this will be their ninth Rugby World Cup semifinal. Four years ago, they were upset by England in the semifinals in Yokohama. Can Argentina pull off what would be a more significant shocker?

Argentina vs New Zealand Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Argentina +18.5 (-115)
• New Zealand -18.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Argentina +900
• New Zealand -1500
• Draw +5000

Over/Under

• Over 47.5 (-110)
• Under 47.5 (-110)

Can Argentina Find a Way Past New Zealand on the Big Stage?

After reaching the World Cup semifinals in 2007 and the quarterfinals in 2011, Argentina joined what was the Tri-Nations to make what is now known as the Rugby Championship (save for 2020, when it reverted back to the Tri-Nations due to the pandemic).

Since joining the competition in 2012, the Pumas have taken their share of lumps.

After winning one of three matches in this year’s tournament, which was trimmed in half due to this being a World Cup year, Argentina have a record of nine wins, three ties, and 49 losses in 61 Rugby Championship matches.

But following 14 consecutive losses to New Zealand in the competition and going winless in their first 29 matches overall against the All Blacks, the Pumas finally registered a win over the three-time World Cup winners in 2020, a 25-15 win in Sydney, Australia.

Last year, Argentina picked up a first-ever win over the All Blacks on New Zealand soil, a 25-18 win in Christchurch.

It goes without saying that those were two momentous victories. Still, results still heavily lie in New Zealand’s favor.

The All Blacks have won five of the last six meetings between the two teams, and in each of those five wins, they have scored 36 or more points and tallied five or more tries.

Argentina vs New Zealand Recent Head-to-Head Results

• 2023 Rugby Championship (July 8 – Mendoza): 41-12 New Zealand
• 2022 Rugby Championship (September 3 – Hamilton): 53-3 New Zealand
• 2022 Rugby Championship (August 27 – Christchurch): 25-18 Argentina
• 2021 Rugby Championship (September 18 – Brisbane, Australia): 36-13 New Zealand
• 2021 Rugby Championship (September 11 – Gold Coast): 39-0 New Zealand
• 2020 Rugby Championship (November 28 – Newcastle, Australia): 38-0 New Zealand
• 2020 Rugby Championship (November 14 – Sydney, Australia): 25-15 Argentina
• 2019 Rugby Championship (July 20 – Buenos Aires): 20-16 New Zealand
• 2018 Rugby Championship (September 28 – Buenos Aires): 35-17 New Zealand
• 2018 Rugby Championship (September 6 – Nelson): 46-24 New Zealand

When they met in Mendoza, Argentina in the Rugby Championship in July, New Zealand scored five first-half tries and seven total.

In the 2023 Rugby World Cup, New Zealand have scored 41 tries, including three in the win over Ireland. Five apiece have been scored by Leicester Fainga’anuku and Will Jordan, both of whom touched down last Saturday.

Jordan will be in the starting XV against Argentina, but with Mark Telea returning to the lineup after a disciplinary issue resulted in his exclusion from the squad against Ireland, Fainga’anuku will be a spectator against Argentina.

As a result of Fainga’anuku not even making the bench to face the Pumas, those looking to make Rugby World Cup top try scorer bets might be wise to back Jordan. He has picked up his five tries in New Zealand’s last three matches against Italy (two), Uruguay (two), and Ireland (one).

Alternatively, Telea, who is now out to +2500 (at MyBookie) to lead the tournament in tries, might be worth a punt after being brought back into the fold following his undisclosed indiscretion.

With three tries to his name, he has some leapfrogging to do, but with two matches to play no matter what, he isn’t out of the conversation.

Argentina vs New Zealand Prediction and Picks

Prediction: New Zealand to win

Picks: New Zealand -18.5 (+100 at Bovada) & New Zealand team total over 33.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

Since Argentina joined the Rugby Championship, New Zealand have beaten the Pumas by 19 or more points 13 times in 22 meetings and by 18 points twice.

Additionally, they have scored 34 or more points in 13 of their last 17 matches against Argentina, including the aforementioned stretch of five times in the last six meetings.

The Pumas showed against Wales how much they believe in themselves even in adverse circumstances, and that is something to be impressed by. And their two recent wins over the All Blacks show that they can indeed play with them and beat them on the right day.

However, I don’t think Friday will be their day.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.

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• 2023 Rugby World Cup Top Try Scorer Odds, Favorites & Predictions
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