England vs South Africa Rugby World Cup Semifinal Prediction & Picks: Which 2019 Finalist Will Emerge Victorious?

Four years ago, South Africa upset the odds against England in the Rugby World Cup final in Yokohama. Tomorrow, England will look to turn the tables to deny the Springboks a chance to repeat as the two teams face off in the second 2023 Rugby World Cup semifinal at the Stade de France (3:00 pm ET, Peacock).

The winner will face the winner of today’s Argentina vs New Zealand matchup in the final a week from Saturday, while the losers of the two semifinals will meet in the third-place game next Friday.

• Argentina vs New Zealand Rugby World Cup Semifinal Prediction & Picks

Four years ago, England were favored ahead of the final after blowing away Australia in the quarters and upsetting New Zealand in the semis.

But instead of claiming their second Rugby World Cup title, South Africa scored the game’s first points, never trailed, and pulled away with two late tries to take home their third title with a 32-12 win.

An England win in this matchup would be a much bigger upset, as the Springboks are favored by almost two converted tries over England.

In the quarterfinals, the reigning world champions broke host hearts in the quarters with a riveting 29-28 win versus France, while England survived a tense finish versus Fiji in a 30-24 victory.

England vs South Africa Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• England +13.5 (-115)
• South Africa -13.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• England +450
• South Africa -575
• Draw +3300

Over/Under

• Over 43.5 (-110)
• Under 43.5 (-110)

Will the Boks Back Up the Odds Against England?

While France, Ireland, New Zealand, and South Africa might be the four best teams in the world, only the latter two are in the semifinals.

Some might begrudge England for benefitting from the pool draw being done almost three years ago, which resulted

But they are here, and while they did things the hard way against Fiji, they have a chance to flip the script from their loss in Yokohama.

And of the fifteen players who will start tomorrow, eight started in the 2019 final, while two others (Dan Cole and Joe Marler) came on as substitutes.

Starting XV for England vs South Africa

1. Joe Marler
2. Jamie George
3. Dan Cole
4. Maro Itoje
5. George Martin
6. Courtney Lawes
7. Tom Curry
8. Dan Earl
9. Alex Mitchell
10. Owen Farrell (captain)
11. Elliott Daly
12. Manu Tuilagi
13. Joe Marchant
14. Jonny May
15. Freddie Steward

South Africa will also start eight players who started in their title triumph, and as with England, two other starters (Steven Kitshoff and Franco Mostert) came on as subs.

As was the case against France, Manie Libbok will draw the start over Handre Pollard, one of the heroes of the 2019 team, at fly-half.

Libbok made two of his three try conversions in the first half against France before being replaced in the 45th minute by Pollard, who made both of his kicks, including an ultimately decisive penalty from 51 meters out to put South Africa ahead by four points.

Starting XV for South Africa vs England

1. Steven Kitshoff
2. Mbongeni Mbonambi
3. Frans Malherbe
4. Eben Etzebeth
5. Franco Mostert
6. Siya Kolisi (captain)
7. Pieter-Steph du Toit
8. Duane Vermeulen
9. Cobus Reinach
10. Manie Libbok
11. Cheslin Kolbe
12. Damian de Allende
13. Jesse Kriel
14. Kurt-Lee Arendse
15. Damian Willemse

Since the 2019 final, the two teams have met twice. In November 2021, England eked out a 27-26 win at Twickenham thanks to a 79th-minute penalty by Marcus Smith, who will miss out on tomorrow’s match after suffering a concussion against Fiji.

They met at Twickenham again last November, and South Africa strolled to a 27-13 win in what would be Eddie Jones’s final match as England head coach.

It’s safe to say that few at that time would have expected England to be here, unbalanced draw and all, especially when they entered the Rugby World Cup with only three wins in nine matches under Borthwick.

But they have their chance at redemption. Will they make the most of that chance? The odds certainly aren’t favorable.

That said, England have won three of the previous five head-to-head matchups between the two teams, and many of the players who will take the field at the Stade de France will have first-hand experience of what it takes to beat the Boks.

England vs South Africa Prediction and Picks

Prediction: England to win

Picks: England +13.5 (-115 at Bovada) & England team total over 15.5 points (-105 at Bovada)

England are widely being written off here, which isn’t an unfair view. After all, they weren’t one of the pre-tournament favorites this time around, and while they are unbeaten, they scraped by both Samoa and Fiji in their last two matches.

Whereas I wasn’t inclined to back the upset in the Argentina vs New Zealand matchup given the All Blacks’ past and present dominance of the Pumas, I’m more inclined to be a contrarian here and roll with the upset. Experience and belief can carry you a long way, and so can having a point to prove.

A lot has to happen for such a result to occur, but those who are writing off England’s chances are doing so at their peril. And even if they happen to come up short, I expect them to do enough to cover the large spread.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.

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