Wales vs Argentina Rugby World Cup Prediction & PIcks: Who Will Move On in Marseille?

In 2023 Rugby World Cup pool play, Pool C was arguably the most exciting and competitive of the four five-team groups. Wales emerged as the top team in the pool, and their reward is a quarterfinal matchup with Argentina, which will take place on Saturday at Stade Velodrome in Marseille (11:00 am ET, Peacock).

After finishing fourth four years ago in Japan, Wales are in a favorable position to reach the semifinals once again after finishing with 19 points from their four Pool C matches. They got a heck of a scare from Fiji in their opener but dispatched Portugal, Australia, and Georgia all by 20+ points.

To book a semifinal showdown with either Ireland or New Zealand, Wales must see off the Pumas, who finished second behind England in Pool D.

Argentina were expected to be here, but their place in the last eight wasn’t secure until they battled past Japan in a high-scoring pool finale last Sunday.

Which team will be the first to advance to the semis? Wales are favored and have a strong all-time head-to-head record against Argentina, but the Pumas certainly can’t be counted out.

Wales vs Argentina Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Wales -4.5 (-110)
• Argentina +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wales -186
• Argentina +176
• Draw +2300

Over/Under

• Over 43.5 (-110)
• Under 43.5 (-110)

Will Wales Continue Recent Dominance Against Argentina?

After a highly successful tenure as Wales head coach from 2007 to 2019, Warren Gatland moved on after the 2019 Rugby World Cup, where his squad came up agonizingly short of reaching the final for the first time.

Gatland returned to his post in December of last year, following a disastrous run under his successor, Wayne Pivac.

Wales won only 13 of 34 matches in Pivac’s tenure, and entering the 2023 Rugby World Cup, had won just five of their previous 20 matches, including just two of seven after Gatland’s return.

So, their near-perfect run through Pool C is no small feat. Pivac’s penultimate match as coach was a 13-12 defeat to Georgia last November, their first loss to a non-Six Nations or Rugby Championship side since a 23-8 loss to Japan in June 2013.

To wrap up pool play by piling up 43 points in a 24-point win over Georgia shows the progress that has been made in Gatland’s return, even if it took some time for the results to come.

That win did come at a cost, however. Taulupe Faletau, who made his 102nd appearance for the national side in the win over Georgia, suffered a broken arm that has ended his tournament early.

That is a big loss for Wales, but they have the quality to survive his absence against Argentina.

Should they be considered on par with tournament favorites France, Ireland, New Zealand, and South Africa? I wouldn’t go that far just yet, but the Ireland-New Zealand winner will have their hands full if Wales advance.

All-time head-to-head results are in Wales’ favor, though the three matchups in Pivac’s ugly tenure, all in Cardiff, saw each team win once and a 20-20 draw in July 2021.

All time, Wales have won 14, lost six, and drawn once against Argentina, including wins in both previous World Cup matches (pool matches in 1991 and 1999), both of which were also in Cardiff.

Is this Argentina squad equipped to pull the upset? On paper, sure.

But based on their performances in pool play, they might be up against it.

The Pumas never really threatened England in a 27-10 loss to open their tournament, didn’t put Samoa out of reach until the end in a nine-point win, and were only two points up on Japan inside the final 15 minutes before closing out a 39-27 win.

Also, wins outside of Argentina against superior competition have been hard to come by. That said, the last time they reached the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals, they were underdogs against Ireland eight years ago but dominated in a 43-20 stunner.

Wales vs Argentina Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Wales to win

Picks: Wales -4.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Wales team total over 23.5 points (-105 at Bovada)

Argentina may invoke memories of 2015 to help provide a little extra inspiration for this match, but Wales have hit most of the right notes thus far in the tournament and will do so once again to move on to the semis. The loss of Faletau

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

• BetDSI
• BetOnline
• BetUS
• Bovada
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.