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Tour de France 2023 Odds, Favorites, Predictions & Picks
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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On Saturday, July 1, one of the most grueling individual events on the sports calendar will get underway, as the 2023 Tour de France will begin in Spain.
Across 21 stages and over 2100 miles, the world’s top cyclists will take aim at making history and joining the ranks of those who have won the most famous race in cycling.
Who will wear the yellow jersey in Paris on July 23? The two most recent winners appear to be the men to beat by some distance.
Last year, Danish rider Jonas Vingegaard of Team Jumbo-Visma prevented 2021 and 2022 winner Tadej Pogacar from becoming the sixth person–seventh if you choose not to erase Lance Armstrong from the history books–to win the Tour de France three or more times in a row.
Vingegaard beat out Pogacar by two minutes, 43 seconds to become the second Danish winner after Bjarne Riis in 1996, and he will take aim at becoming the 22nd rider to win the Tour at least twice.
Pogacar, who represents UAE Team Emirates, will be looking to reclaim his crown and become the eighth three-time winner. He and Vingegaard sit at the top of the pre-race odds, with 2022 Giro d’Italia winner Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe), who will be making his Tour de France debut, getting the nod as the best of the rest among the general classification contenders.
Odds to Win the 2023 Tour de France (General Classification)
Odds via Bovada as of Thursday, June 29, 2023, at 6:40 am ET.
- Jonas Vingegaard +110
- Tadej Pogacar +110
- Jai Hindley +1400
- Mattias Skjelmose +3000
- Richard Carapaz +3000
- Ben O’Connor +3300
- Enric Mas +3300
- Adam Yates +4000
- David Gaudu +4000
- Simon Yates +4000
- Mikel Landa +6600
- Carlos Rodriguez +8000
- Daniel Martinez +8000
- Egan Bernal +8000
- Romain Bardet +8000
- Tom Pidcock +8000
- Wilco Kelderman +10000
- Wout van Aert +10000
The most notable absences from this year’s Tour de France include 2018 winner Geraint Thomas and Primoz Roglic, who instead prioritized the Giro d’Italia, which took place in May and saw Roglic and Thomas finish first and second.
Thomas finished third behind Vingegaard and Pogacar last year, while Roglic failed to finish the race in 2021 and 2022 after agonizingly losing out to fellow Slovenian Pogacar in 2020.
Tour de France 2023 Favorites
Jonas Vingegaard
Vingegaard made a serious statement of intent earlier this month with a dominant performance at the Criterium du Dauphine, a prominent prep race.
He won two of the eight stages, and he finished ahead of Adam Yates by two minutes, 23 seconds, which was the biggest margin of victory in the race since 1993. Additionally, he also took the win at April’s Tour of the Basque Country, winning three of the race’s six stages and finishing ahead of runner-up Mikel Landa by one minute, 12 secon
Additionally, he comprehensively won the O Gran Camino in Spain in February, winning all three stages and finishing two minutes, 31 seconds ahead of Jesus Herrada.
Winning the Tour de France just once is a pretty difficult task, and doing it twice in a row puts you in elite company. So much has to go right, and very little can go wrong. But Vingegaard couldn’t be in better form going in, and he is going to be tough to beat.
Tadej Pogacar
In 2023, Vingegaard has entered four races–all multi-stage races–and he has claimed victory in three.
Pogacar took the win in the other, the seven-stage Paris-Nice race in March. The two-time Tour de France winner captured three stage wins and finished 53 seconds ahead of David Gaudu, with Vingegaard in third, 1:39 behind thanks to losing substantial time in the fourth and fifth stages.
Since his Paris-Nice win, Pogacar has taken part in only one-day races, though his season suffered a disruption after he broke his wrist in Belgium in April.
He returned to action last week in his native Slovenia, but you naturally have to wonder if the injury absence will have an effect. For what it’s worth, he wasn’t inactive while recovering. Far from it, actually.
Jai Hindley
After the two overwhelming favorites, there is a big gap to the other potential contenders.
Hindley appears to be the best of that bunch, but what is that worth? It’s a tough ask for a debutant, even an extremely talented one, to win the Tour de France, especially with Pogacar and Vingegaard
The 27-year-old Australian has competed in five stage races this year and has yet to finish on the podium in any of them. That doesn’t write him off, by any means, but when the two favorites have had the success that they have had thus far this season, his results look a little uninspiring.
But he finished fourth at the Criterium du Dauphine, 3:16 behind Vingegaard, so he will go into the Tour with reason to feel confident that he can push for at least a podium finish in his debut.
Tour de France 2023 Predictions and Picks
Had Pogacar not had his season interrupted by his April crash, he would have been alone atop the Tour de France odds.
Prior to his injury, he was on fire in 2023, and in their lone appearance in the same race this year, he got the best of Vingegaard. If he is back to 100%, the reigning winner will really have his work cut out for him.
Can anyone else win it besides one of those two? Sure, but I don’t see that happening.
Beyond the yellow jersey, there’s a lot of money to be made in betting on podium finishes, head-to-heads, and the other classifications.
But if there’s one bet that sticks out to me, it’s backing a top-ten finish for Mattias Skjelmose, who represents the Trek-Segafredo team. The 22-year-old Dane won the recent Tour de Suisse, edging Juan Ayuso by a mere nine seconds.
His win in the seven-stage race is a rather good omen for his chances of a high Tour de France finish. Each of the previous three Tour de Suisse winners has gone on to stand on the podium in Paris:
- 2019: Egan Bernal (winner)
- 2021: Richard Carapaz (third)
- 2022: Geraint Thomas (third)
Every nice trend isn’t worth following, but this one is. Skjelmose is +125 to score a top-ten finish, and he is +800 to finish on the podium, both of which are fantastic odds given where he is on the list of yellow jersey favorites.
Where to Bet on the Tour de France
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