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American League Wild Card Game 1s: Prediction & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Playoff baseball is here! The American League Wild Card Games kick off tomorrow afternoon and we’re here to break them down for you!
The Texas Rangers travel to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Toronto Blue Jays go to Minnesota to face the Twins!
Let’s take a look at these opening matchups and talk about our best bets!
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Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rangers
Pitching Matchup
- Texas Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53 ERA)
Game Information
- Venue & Location: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, FL)
- Date: Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023
- First Pitch: 3:08pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Bettings Odds
Runline
- Rangers +1.5 (-170)
- Rays -1.5 (+145)
MoneyLine
- Rangers +131
- Rays -157
Total
- Over 7.5 (-110)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
The Pick: Rays -1.5 (+145) Bovada
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With a couple of studs on the mound, I’m going to back the Rays in this spot. The Rangers lead the season series 4-2, sweeping the last 3 game series in Arlington.
However, the Rays were able to win 2 of 3 at home earlier in the season, including the first matchup 8-3.
Now, Jordan Montgomery did not pitch against Tampa Bay this season, but he has been solid with the Rangers.
He is 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts since coming over from St. Louis. In five road starts, Montgomery is 1-1, and his ERA drops to 1.67.
However, he has very minimal post season experience. I think he may get rattled on the road in this post season opener, and I like Glasnow to shove at home.
I’ll take the Rays by two for +145 and hope they jump out to a commanding 1-0 series lead.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup
- Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.16 ERA)
- Minnesota Twins: Pablo López (11-8, 3.67 ERA)
Game Information
- Venue & Location: Target Field (Minneapolis, MN)
- Date: Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023
- First Pitch: 4:38pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Bettings Odds
Runline
- Blue Jays +1.5 (-210)
- Twins -1.5 (+175)
MoneyLine
- Blue Jays +102
- Twins -122
Total
- Over 7.5 (+100)
- Under 7.5 (-120)
The Pick: TOR/MIN Under 7.5 (-120) Bovada
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With these two studs on the mound, I think this one stays low scoring. Gausman pitched one playoff game last year against the Mariners and gave up 4 ER in just 5.2 innings. I think we see some redemption from him.
López is making just his 2nd playoff start of his career. Back in 2020, he pitched 5 innings for the Marlins against the Braves, allowing 2 ER on 2 solo HR.
López had 7 Ks in that game, and we know he is a strikeout pitcher, so I’ve got him and Gausman to both shove and keep this one under the 7.5.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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