Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction & Best Bets (6/19)

One of the top matchups on Monday’s MLB schedule features two of the top pitchers in the National League, as Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks match up with Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Tonight’s matchup at American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for an 8:10 pm ET start, and it will be televised nationally on MLB Network for viewers out of the two local markets.

The Diamondbacks (43-29, 20-11 away) are in Milwaukee after wrapping up a two-series homestand by taking two of three from the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend.

Arizona didn’t take advantage of the opportunity to break out the brooms yesterday, but they will take a 3.5-game NL West lead into their series with the NL Central-leading Brewers, who are a half-game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds after sweeping the Pirates at home.

Will Kelly take over the NL wins lead, or will Burnes bag his sixth win of the season? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Diamondbacks vs Brewers game.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Moneyline

• Arizona Diamondbacks +108
• Milwaukee Brewers -130

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-105)
• Under 7.5 (-115)

Run Line

• Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-195)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+165)

Pitching Matchup for Diamondbacks vs Brewers

• Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Merrill Kelly (14 starts, 8-3, 3.04 ERA)
• Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes (14 starts, 5-4, 3.44 ERA)

Kelly Looks to Maintain Unblemished Road Record in Milwaukee

Since allowing four homers and five runs in a loss to the Houston Astros last month, Burnes has been on a solid stretch. In his last four starts, he has allowed seven runs and 15 hits in 27 innings, compiling a 2.33 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in that time.

Is this a sign that Burnes is getting back to the best version of himself? Or at least something close to it? He still has yet to record ten strikeouts in a game this season, but he has tallied seven Ks in four straight starts for the first time since last June.

If he can keep the whiffs coming, the Brewers will have a solid chance of getting it done against the Diamondbacks. In his MLB career, Burnes has picked up seven or more strikeouts in 52 of his 88 regular season starts, and Milwaukee is 34-18 in those 52 games.

All that said, the Brewers are in for a real challenge, given the run that Kelly is on right now. Since opening the season 1-3 with a 3.42 ERA in his first five starts, Kelly has gone 7-0 with a 2.86 ERA in his last nine starts.

With a win today, Kelly will become the first NL pitcher to reach nine wins this season. On top of that, the Diamondbacks would improve to 7-0 this season in Kelly’s road starts. Current NL Cy Young Award odds aren’t giving the 34-year-old much love, as he is only +10000 to win the award (Burnes is currently +2200). But if he keeps this up, those odds will shorten.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Diamondbacks vs Brewers: Diamondbacks to win

Best Bet for Diamondbacks vs Brewers: Diamondbacks ML

I’m glad to see Burnes put together a decent run, but I like the value with the Diamondbacks, who are 9-1 in their last ten road games, in this matchup.

In addition to the perfect record in Kelly’s road starts, Arizona is 17-11 (.607) in games following a loss, which is second in the NL and fifth in MLB. Also, they are 10-6 (.625) as a road underdog, which is third in MLB.

How does this line up with the numbers on our matchup page for this game? Our aggregated MLB picks are two-thirds in favor of the home team, while 70% of the public is on the Brew Crew to take the win.

Still, I am riding with the hot hand and look for the Diamondbacks to pick up a sixth straight road win tonight in Milwaukee.

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