Athletics vs. Astros (7/16): Will Houston bounce back with a win?

After dropping a home series opener for the first time in over a month, the Houston Astros will be looking to avoid consecutive losses or a series loss for the first time since then as they host the Oakland Athletics this afternoon.

Prior to last night’s 5-3 loss to the A’s, the Astros hadn’t lost a home series opener since a loss to the Miami Marlins on June 10. That was also the most recent time the Astros dropped consecutive games and lost a series, as back-to-back losses to the Marlins were part of a series loss and a three-game losing streak.

Since that series, the Astros are 21-8 and have not dropped a series, and even with no margin for error after last night’s loss, they are still in a strong position to take the series, especially with one of the leading AL Cy Young Award favorites on the mound in today’s matchup.

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Oakland Athletics (31-60, 20-29 away, 5th in the AL West) vs. Houston Astros (58-31, 27-13 home, 1st in the AL West)
• Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
• Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022
• Game Time: 4:10 p.m. Eastern Time (3:10 p.m. local time)

Athletics vs. Astros Pitching Matchup

• Oakland Athletics: Jared Koening (2022: 4 starts, 1-2, 6.38 ERA)
• Houston Astros: Justin Verlander (2022: 16 starts, 11-3, 2.00 ERA)

Athletics vs. Astros Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also feature odds from other legal sportsbooks that we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• Oakland Athletics +295
• Houston Astros -370

Over/Under

• OVER 7.5 (-108)
• UNDER 7.5 (-112)

Run Line

• Oakland Athletics +1.5 (+134)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (-162)

Daytime Dominance Likely to Continue for Verlander

With Astros manager Dusty Baker managing the AL All-Star team for next Tuesday’s game at Dodger Stadium, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Verlander get the starting nod. After all, he is 39 and may not have another opportunity to do so.

There are some compelling candidates to get the nod, including AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays and AL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani. But Verlander has a pretty good argument, and not just because of his age.

Entering today, the three-time AL Cy Young winner is tied for the MLB lead in wins, second in OBA (.190), third in ERA, third in WHIP (0.87), and tied for 10th in quality starts (12). Six of those quality starts have come at home, where he is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in seven starts.

Since his lone bad home start almost a month ago, when he allowed seven runs and nine hits in 3.2 innings against the Chicago White Sox, Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts. In 21 innings in those three starts, he has allowed three runs (two earned), 13 hits, and four walks and struck out 17.

Verlander has also been at his best in daytime games. In eight daytime starts, he is 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and a .185 OBA. For what it’s worth, his nighttime starts aren’t too shabby (5-2, 2.04 ERA, .196 OBA), but they are indeed inferior, even if only by a small margin.

He has also been excellent against the Athletics since joining the Astros in 2017. In eight starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA, and only one of the eight starts has not been a quality start.

Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bets

A’s vs. Astros Prediction: Astros to win

A’s vs. Astros Best Bets: Astros -1.5 (-150 at BetMGM) & Astros team total over 4.5 runs (-128 at BetOnline)

Only one team has been a better win percentage than the Astros do following a loss. Houston is 22-8 (.733) following a loss this season, just ahead of the Atlanta Braves (27-10, .730) and behind only the New York Mets (27-7, .794).

Of those 22 wins, 16 (72.7 percent) have come by 2+ runs. So, the percentages are heavily in favor of the Astros winning today and winning by multiple runs.

The percentages also favor a good day at the plate for the home team. In 12 of their 22 wins following a loss, the Astros have scored 5+ runs. and they have scored 5+ runs eight times in their 14 July games, including five times in eight home games.

As I stated in yesterday’s Royals vs. Blue Jays preview, it’s unwise to bet on such a heavy favorite, even if it works out (as it did for Blue Jays bettors last night). So don’t go including this one in your parlays for any reason or using any percentage of your bankroll on a straight bet on the ML.

But whereas Toronto’s recent struggles would have made an RL bet on them last night a bad idea–even though it did indeed hit–the same can’t be said for the Astros, whose loss last night should amount to nothing more than a disappointing blip in what has been a pretty dominant stretch for Houston.

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