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MLB Best Prop Bets Today | April 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Sun Apr 27, 2025, 15:25 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: Another beautiful Sunday slate gives us a few spots to attack. We have a struggling starter facing the red-hot Dodgers, and a young bat ready to wake up in Detroit. Let’s dive into two plays that stand out today.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 27th
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Month: 91-129-4 (+9.07u)
Last week: 18-31-2 (-2.36u)
Pirates vs Dodgers Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130) odds via BetOnline
Can the Dodgers make some early noise against Bailey Falter?
The Dodgers have the luxury of facing the worst-rated pitcher on this lovely Sunday slate. Pirates starter Bailey Falter enters today with the worst-rated average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO, and the second-worst average hitter matchup strikeout percentage. Mr. Falt in our stars is carrying a 5.19 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP to start the season. He has allowed over this prop in three of his five outings; the two teams that did not surpass 2.5 runs in the first five were Washington and Miami—two mediocre offenses. His average pitch value is below league average, according to FanGraphs, and 39% of his pitches are well below league value.
The Dodgers have the third-highest average hitter matchup rating, featuring a lineup with four elite-rated hitters and no poorly rated bats. They are also above the league average in strikeout rate and ground ball rate. So far this season, Los Angeles ranks seventh in first-five scoring, putting up around 2.67 runs per game. Their home and away splits are nearly identical.
At the price of $1.30, and with Falter giving up over three runs per game on average, the Dodgers should be able to get after his pitches early and often.
Orioles vs Tigers Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108) odds via BetOnline
Will Kerry Carpenter snap his hitless streak against Orioles starter Dean Kremer?
Tigers stud Kerry Carpenter enters today with the highest rating in this Orioles vs. Tigers matchup. In 38 elite ratings, Carpenter records a hit 73% of the time, a single 60% of the time, goes over this prop 47% of the time, and hits a home run 21% of the time. So far this season, the Tigers outfielder boasts a .280 average and a .810 OPS, with five home runs and eight extra-base hits.
Today he faces struggling right-hander Dean Kremer, who sports a 6.84 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The 29-year-old has a BABIP of .333 and is giving up 2.52 home runs per nine innings. Only one of his five pitches grades above league average, and he throws it just 16% of the time. His overall pitch repertoire grades at an ugly -1.89. Kremer’s pitch mix has been atrocious to start the 2025 season. Luckily for us, we’re taking Carpenter’s props, not Kremer’s.
Carpenter matches up really well against Kremer’s arsenal, and with plus money value on a guy due for a bounce-back after three straight games without a hit, give me the young stud to make some noise this afternoon.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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