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Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (August 5)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Blue Jays and Red Sox face off at Fenway, and before last night, Toronto would’ve liked to forget the rest of the season series.
In early May, the Red Sox swept the Blue Jays in four games at Fenway Park. A few weeks later in Toronto, they did the same thing in three games.
However, last night the Blue Jays bats came alive, and they beat Boston 7-3.
Toronto is 61-50 overall while Boston is 57-52, but like we talked about, the Red Sox lead the season series 7-1.
They are a better team at home, posting a 30-24 record while being sub.500 on the road.
Plus they’ve beaten this team seven times already.
Surely they bounce back at home, right?
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox Game Information
The battle between Red and Blue makes me yearn for some Jayhawk Basketball.
Fall is approaching. Football and Basketball are almost here.
We’ve almost made it.
Nevertheless, we do have tonight’s matchup to talk about!
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
- Date: Saturday, August, 5th, 2023
- First Pitch: 4:10pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Pitching Matchup
- Toronto Blue Jays: Jośe Berríos (8-7, 3.32 ERA)
- Boston Red Sox: John Schreiber (1-1, 3.74 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Blue Jays +1.5 (-200)
- Red Sox -1.5 (+170)
Moneyline
- Blue Jays -103
- Red Sox -117
Total
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Best Bets
Berríos has had a couple of rough outings against Boston this year.
At Fenway in early May, he went 5.1 innings and gave up 5 ER on 11 hits, including 2 home runs. He struck out 4 and walked 2 and left with no decision.
In late June at home, Berríos lasted a full 6 innings while only allowing 5 hits. However, he still gave 4 ER and 3 home runs. On the bright side, he struck out 8 and didn’t walk anybody in the loss.
So let’s put that together.
In 11.1 innings against Boston, Berríos has given up 16 hits, 9 ER and 5 HR.
I think the Red Sox hitters get a hold of him again today.
This is also a bullpen game for the Red Sox, so the Blue Jays could score plenty as well.
The Pick: TOR/BOS Over 9.5 (-110) Bovada
Player Props
Jośe Berríos Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132) BetOnline
Berríos simply struggles historically against Boston.
We’ve talked about his starts this year, but it’s a career issue.
In 12 starts, Berríos is 1-6 against Boston. He gives up 6.5 hits per game and has a 4.31 ERA.
The Blue Jays pitcher has given up at least 1 ER in every single start, and has gone over 6+ hits allowed in only 5/12 starts, but he’s allowed 5+ six different times.
The Red Sox will be pissed off after last night, so I expect their hitters to mash Berríos early.
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Jared Duran Over 1.5 Bases (-117) Bovada
Duran hits .317 against lefties this season and his numbers improve at home.
He clears this line in 52% of home games this season, and has hit in 6 of his last 10 overall, including a hit in 9 of those 10.
He’s on a seven game hitting streak, and has hit 2+ bases in 3 straight, totaling 12 in that stretch. He’s also homered in two straight.
In eight AB against Berríos, Duran has lit up the Blue Jays pitcher.
Duran bats .500 with 2 home runs, a double and a single with 3 RBIs.
I like him to stay hot tonight for this price.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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