Blue Jays vs. Yankees (August 18): Is struggling Berrios worth backing in the Bronx?

Will a dramatic win last night prove to be what the New York Yankees needed? We’ll find out during their four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, which starts tonight.

After dropping the first two games of their series against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays, the Yankees were staring at a sweep and a 12th loss in 14 games last night.

But they forced extra innings after trailing 4-0 at one point, and after allowing three runs in the top of the tenth, Josh Donaldson stepped up and delivered in what could be a defining moment in the Yankees’ season.

Walk-Off. Grand Slam. @BringerOfRain20 ? pic.twitter.com/f2qtCVson9

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 18, 2022

Fresh off of that thrilling triumph, next up is Toronto, who has yet to win a series in August and could use a real jolt themselves.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (62-54, 26-29 away, tied for 2nd in the AL East) vs. New York Yankees (73-45, 42-17 home, 1st in the AL East)
• Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)
• Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
• Game Time: 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time
• Blue Jays vs. Yankees TV Info: MLB Network

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup

• Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (2022: 23 starts, 8-5, 5.61 ERA)
• New York Yankees: Frankie Montas (2022: 21 starts, 4-9, 3.59 ERA – 0-0, 9.00 ERA in 2 starts w/ Yankees)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other top sports betting sites may also be mentioned in this article.

Moneyline

• Toronto Blue Jays +132
• New York Yankees -156

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-114)
• Under 8.5 (-106)

Run Line

• Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-152)
• New York Yankees -1.5 (+126)

Will Away Struggles Continue for Berrios?

Part of why the Blue Jays entered this season with sky-high expectations was the talent they had accumulated on the mound. That includes Berrios, who went 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for Toronto last year after being acquired from Minnesota.

But Hyun Jin Ryu made only six starts before being shelved with elbow ligament damage in June, Yusei Kikuchi has struggled, Kevin Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.63 ERA at home, and Berrios, despite a winning record, has been a major disappointment.

The 28-year-old righty had his best month of the season in July, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and four quality starts in six starts.

But the wheels have fallen off again in August. Against his former team, he allowed five runs, six hits, and two walks in just 3.2 innings, and against the Guardians last time out, he allowed eight runs, eight hits, and two walks in four innings.

Berrios gave up two homers in each of those starts, taking his season total to 26, which leads MLB ahead of Milwaukee’s Eric Lauer (24) and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (23).

In two starts against the Yankees this season, both of which have been at Yankee Stadium, Berrios has allowed eight runs, 11 hits, three homers, and four walks in 10.1 innings. Overall, he is 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA in 11 away starts, and opponents are hitting .316 against him on the road.

None of that bodes very well for Berrios, but it does bode well for over bettors. Of the 23 games that he has started, there have been nine or more combined runs scored in 13 of them, including eight of his 11 road starts.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Picks

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction: Toronto to win

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks: Blue Jays ML (Best Value: +135 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Blue Jays/Yankees over 8.5 (Best Value: -109 at BetUS)

While his numbers are not great, Toronto is 16-7 in Berrios’s starts this season, including a 5-6 mark in his away starts. And they have yet to lose three of his starts in a row this season.

Toronto scores better on the road (4.89 runs per game) than at home (4.51 runs per game), and they hit better against right-handed pitchers (.264) than left-handed pitchers (.257).

In fact, the Jays lead the league in batting average against right-handed starters (.271), well ahead of the Dodgers (.264) and Mets (.261). And in games against right-handed starters, they average 4.97 runs, compared to 3.57 runs per game against southpaw starters.

So, there is a lot of value in backing Toronto to get the win tonight in the Big Apple, even though they come in with just three wins in their last 11 games.

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