Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction and Best Bets (6/7)

After a come-from-behind win last night at Progressive Field, the Boston Red Sox (31-30, 14-14 away) will go for a much-needed series win tonight in the second game of their series with the Cleveland Guardians (27-33, 12-16 home).

In last night’s series opener, Boston trailed 2-1 entering the eighth inning, then exploded for four runs to take the lead on the way to a 5-4 win.

Can that comeback translate into a series win for Boston? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Red Sox vs Guardians game.

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Before we give our rundown and picks for tonight’s game in Cleveland, let’s take a look at the odds, as well as the pitching matchup, which features two righties.

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Odds

Moneyline

• Boston Red Sox +116
• Cleveland Guardians -136

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-114)
• Under 7.5 (-106)

Run Line

• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-178)
• Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+146)

Pitching Matchup for Red Sox vs Guardians

• Boston Red Sox: RHP Kutter Crawford (11 appearances – 3 starts, 1-2, 3.48 ERA)
• Cleveland Guardians: RHP Tanner Bibee (7 starts, 1-1, 3.20 ERA)

Will Cleveland Continue to Struggle as a Home Favorite?

What a difference a year can make.

Last season, the Guardians were MLB’s best team as a home favorite, in terms of win percentage. They were 37-15 (.712), making them one of only two teams with a win percentage of .700 or better as a home favorite. The World Series champion Houston Astros were the other, coming in at 60-25 (.706).

This season has been a different story, however. Entering today, the Guardians have been favored at home 20 times, and out of those 20 times, they have come through with the win only seven times.

That win percentage of .350 puts them 28th among the 29 teams that have been a home favorite at least once–the Oakland Athletics have not been favored in any game this season–with the Kansas City Royals (3-9, .250) the only qualifying team with a poorer win percentage.

Those numbers line up favorably for the Red Sox, as does their record in games following a win. They may not be thriving at the moment, having lost ten of their last 15 games. But they are 18-12 (.600) in games following a win, which puts them fourth in the league behind the Tampa Bay Rays (30-13, .698), Texas Rangers (25-14, .641), and Atlanta Braves (22-13, .629).

If you have regularly faded the Guardians when they have been favored at home and taken the under in most of those games as well, you should be doing well for yourself right now. In the 20 games in which Cleveland has been favored at home, the under is 15-4-1.

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Red Sox vs Guardians: Red Sox to win

Best Bets for Red Sox vs Guardians: Red Sox ML & Red Sox/Guardians under 7.5

There aren’t a lot of runs to play with here, but in addition to the favorable numbers above, there have been seven or fewer runs in three of the four games Bibee has started at home.

Also, while Bibee has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his seven starts, the Guardians are just 2-5 in those starts, including losses in each of the last three.