Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction and Best Bets (6/11)

After splitting the first two games of their first series this season, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will wrap up Sunday’s MLB slate with a rubber game tonight at Yankee Stadium (7:00 pm ET, ESPN).

Boston (32-33, 15-17 away) eked out a 3-2 win in Friday’s series opener, with Rafael Devers homering to help send Gerrit Cole to his first loss of the season. Devers homered again yesterday, but it was the only run Boston would muster against Domingo German and New York’s bullpen in a 3-1 win for the Yankees (38-28, 21-16 home).

Who will take the series win in the Bronx? Read on for our prediction and best bets for tonight’s Red Sox vs Yankees matchup.

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Before we offer up our picks for this matchup, let’s take a look at the odds, as well as tonight’s starting pitchers.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Odds

Moneyline

• Boston Red Sox +105
• New York Yankees -125

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-110)
• Under 8.5 (-110)

Run Line

• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-185)
• New York Yankees -1.5 (+160)

Pitching Matchup for Red Sox vs Yankees

• Boston Red Sox: RHP Brayan Bello (9 starts, 3-4, 3.97 ERA)
• New York Yankees: RHP Clarke Schmidt (13 starts, 2-6, 4.96 ERA)

Will We Finally See Some Runs Tonight?

After two low-scoring games at Yankee Stadium, many may be itching to see a few crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight.

But as the great Lee Corso says, not so fast, my friend.

Bello and Schmidt may not be racking up the wins this season, but they have both had a number of solid outings recently.

Since allowing eight runs in 7.1 innings in his first two starts this season, Bello has allowed more than two earned runs in only one of seven starts. That was in his most recent start, in which he allowed three runs and six hits in six innings in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays this past Monday.

Schmidt also didn’t have the best of starts this season, allowing three or more runs seven times in his first nine starts and failing to pitch at least five full innings in six of those first nine starts.

But in his last four starts, he has allowed only six runs in 21.2 innings, and after allowing 52 hits and 14 walks in his first 40 innings this season (1.65 WHIP), he has allowed 19 hits and five walks in those 21.2 innings (1.11 WHIP).

Season trends are in favor of a lower-scoring game as well. The under is 13-10-1 when Boston has been a road underdog, while it is 19-13-0 when New York has been favored at home.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Red Sox vs Yankees: Red Sox to win

Best Bets for Red Sox vs Yankees: Red Sox ML & Red Sox/Yankees under 8.5

Neither of tonight’s starting pitchers have been on the winning end recently. The Red Sox have lost each of Bello’s last three starts, while the Yankees have also lost Schmidt’s last three starts.

But over the course of the season, Schmidt has been the more unfortunate of the two. While Boston is 5-4 in Bello’s nine starts, including a 2-1 record in his road starts, New York is 4-9 in Schmidt’s 13 starts, which includes a 2-6 record in his eight home starts.