Braves vs Phillies MLB Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (3/29): NL East Rivals Collide

This Braves vs Phillies MLB prediction and Opening Day best bets are brought to you by Bovada. Bovada is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the MLB to the NBA and everything in between.

After an exciting Opening Day, the 2024 MLB action continues on Friday as the Atlanta Braves (0-0) and Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) begin their three-game at Citizens Bank Park. They were supposed to open the season on Thursday but a rain-filled forecast forced them to postpone the contest.

The following Opening Day games have been postponed to Friday due to rain:

▫️ Brewers at Mets
▫️ Braves at Phillies pic.twitter.com/7P6TxyN6DI

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 27, 2024

The Braves haven’t played meaningful baseball since the Phillies eliminated them during last year’s NLDS. Meanwhile, Philadelphia hopes today’s game is the start of another successful season after making it to the NLCS for the second straight year in 2023, losing to the Arizona Diamondbacks in seven games.

When it comes to winning a championship this season, both NL East rivals are in the mix among contenders. Atlanta currently holds the second-best 2024 World Series odds (+500) while Philadelphia sits ninth at +1400, per Bovada.

We had a successful run regarding MLB bets on Opening Day, so let’s continue the good vibes by getting into my Braves vs. Phillies MLB prediction and best bets.

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 3-1-0

Braves vs Phillies MLB Betting Today (3/29)

Braves vs Phillies Opening Day Information

• Matchup: Atlanta Braves (0-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (0-0, 0-0 Home)
• Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
• Date: Friday, March 29, 2024
• Game Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies: Bally Sports South, NBC 10

Braves vs Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Braves: Spencer Strider (0 starts — 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Phillies: Zack Wheeler (0 starts — 0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Phillies vs Braves Odds & Spread

Phillies vs. Braves Opening Day odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, March 29 at 8:52 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Braves vs Phillies Run Line

• Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+140)
• Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-165)

Phillies vs Braves Over/Under

• Over 7 Runs (-125)
• Under 7 Runs (+105)

Braves vs Phillies Moneyline

• Atlanta Braves (-128)
• Philadelphia Phillies (+107)

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Braves vs Phillies MLB Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 2-5 straight up in its last seven games vs. the NL East.
• Philadelphia is 4-1 straight up in its last five games vs. Atlanta.
• The total hit the Over in seven of Atlanta’s last nine road games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Philadelphia’s last six games vs. the NL.
• The total hit the Over in nine of the last 13 Atlanta-Philadelphia matchups at Citizens Bank Park.

Braves vs Phillies Prediction & MLB Picks Today (3/29): Will Atlanta Get Revenge?

The Braves and Phillies have one of the more well-known MLB rivalries and that was especially the case last season. Between the regular season and playoffs, these NL East rivals collided 17 times during the 2023 campaign.

The Braves got the better of the Phillies during the regular season, winning eight of the 13 matchups. Philadelphia exacted revenge in the playoffs, though, beating Atlanta 3-1 in the NLDS for the second year in a row. Naturally, the visitors are out for revenge this afternoon.

The good news for the Braves is that they tend to play well at Citizens Bank Park. After all, Atlanta is 7-3 SU across its last 10 regular-season trips to Philadelphia, which includes a 5-1 SU record in the City of Brotherly Love in 2023.

Having said that, including the 2023 postseason, the Phillies are 12-3 SU in their last 15 home games and have even won six of their seven previous NL East matchups.

Will the Braves continue to find success at Citizens Bank Park? 

One reason why the Braves came up short in the NLDS was a lack of runs. Atlanta only averaged two runs per game against Philadelphia in the playoffs, which included being held to two or fewer runs three times.

Time will tell if the Braves find more success against Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler. The 33-year-old hurler finished sixth in 2023 NL Cy Young voting after going 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts. Wheeler also tends to pay well against the divisional rival, pitching to a 6-3 record with a 2.48 ERA and 105 strikeouts across his last 14 meetings with Atlanta.

It isn’t like the Phillies get an easy match here, either. They must face Spencer Strider, who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting as he led the MLB in wins (20), winning percentage (80.0%), strikeouts (281), and strikeouts per nine innings (13.5). He also knows how to handle Philadelphia, proven by his 7-3 record and 2.87 ERA in the last 10 meetings.

Braves ace Spencer Strider has won seven of his last 10 meetings with the Phillies.

I could see this game going either way, but I’ll take Atlanta to win. The Braves will be hungry for revenge against the Phillies following back-to-back postseason eliminations and are more than capable of achieving that if their recent regular-season play in Philly is anything to go off of. It’ll be a close one, but Brian Snitker’s club has what it takes to get the job done.

With that in mind, the Over on the 7-run total is the way to go. Not only is the Over 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine road games, but it’s also 4-2 across the last six Braves-Phillies matchups. That’s without mentioning how these NL East rivals also finished with the Over in nine of their last 13 meetings at Citizens Bank Park, averaging 9.3 runs along the way.

Even with Wheeler and Strider hitting the mound, it’s clear that it’s best to expect a lot of offense.

Braves vs Phillies MLB Prediction: ATL wins

Best Braves vs Phillies Bet: o7.5 Total Runs (-125)

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Best Braves vs Phillies Opening Day Prop Bet (3/29)

In a game between two world-class aces, I’m going with the Over on Spencer Strider’s 8.5-strikeout total for the best Braves vs. Phillies player prop bet.

On top of being the MLB’s 2023 strikeout leader, Strider also made good on this prop in 22 of his 32 starts — a 68.8% success rate. Not only that, but the All-Star heat-thrower has also finished with at least nine Ks in each of his last six regular-season matchups with the Phillies, averaging 10.2 strikeouts per outing.

After racking up nine strikeouts against the Washington Nationals on Opening Day 2023, I see Strider beginning the new season in a big way again.