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Braves vs Phillies NLDS Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Picks: Atlanta Rides Momentum Wave
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Atlanta Braves Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.0
-115
10
-115u
+2000
Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-4.5
-153
11
-133o
-3333
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe 2023 MLB playoffs continue Wednesday with three exciting games, including Game 3 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. With the series moving to Citizens Bank Park for the next two outings, many are eager to see if Philadelphia can shift things in its favor.
After losing Game 1, the Braves evened the series with a 5-4 win over the Phillies on Monday. Atlanta was down 4-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth inning before scoring five unanswered runs, highlighted by two-run homers from both Travis d’Arnaud and Austin Riley.
So, who’ll take the crucial 2-1 lead now that the series shifts to the City of Brotherly Love?
This Braves vs. Phillies preview attempts to answer that question and more. Keep reading for the latest NLDS Game 3 odds, as well as my prediction and best bets for tonight’s matchup.
Braves vs Phillies Tonight — NLDS Game 3
ATL vs. PHI Game Information
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Series tied 1-1)
- Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023
- Game Time: 5:07 p.m. Eastern Time
- Where to Watch Braves vs. Phillies Tonight: TBS
Braves vs Phillies Odds
Game odds as of Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 9:04 a.m. ET, courtesy of Bovada. Odds from other reputable sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Spread
- Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-185)
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+160)
Over/Under
- Over 9 Runs (-110)
- Under 9 Runs (-110)
Moneyline
- Atlanta Braves +105
- Philadelphia Phillies -125
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Now, back to some football…
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Braves vs Phillies Probable Pitchers (Oct. 11)
- Braves: TBD (TBD)
- Phillies: Aaron Nola (1 start — 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 8-4 straight up in its last 12 games against Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia is 8-1 straight up in its last nine home games.
- The total has hit the Over in six of Atlanta’s last seven road games.
- The total has hit the Under in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games as the favorite.
- The total has hit the Over in six of the last nine Atlanta-Philadelphia matchups.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction
It can be assumed that momentum is on the Braves’ side following their comeback win in Game 2. Battling back from being four runs down isn’t easy (especially in the playoffs), meaning you can expect Atlanta to do everything it can to extend its winning ways.
Having said that, the series moving away from Truist Park could cause some issues for Brian Snitker’s club.
After all, the Phillies boast an impressive 8-1 record in their last nine road games. The offense has clicked during their solid run at home, scoring five or more runs six times while beating opponents by an average margin of 1.9 runs.
On the flip side, the Braves have seen their fair share of success in Philly, going 7-3 in their last 10 trips to Citizens Bank Park. Atlanta is also 5-1 as the visitor against Philadelphia in 2023, playing to a plus-1.7 average run margin along the way.
The Phillies will be turning to Aaron Nola as their starter for Game 3. The 30-year-old veteran hurler is coming off a strong showing that saw him pitch seven scoreless innings with three strikeouts in a 7-1 win over the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round.
On top of that, Nola has had success against the Braves in recent years, pitching to a 3-2 record with a 3.60 ERA and 57 strikeouts in his last eight starts against the divisional rival.
Although Atlanta has yet to announce its starting pitcher, Bryce Elder is the top candidate. The former 2020 fifth-rounder played well this year, going 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. He also pitched to a 3.38 ERA in two matchups against the Phillies, however, he didn’t receive a decision in either contest.
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At the end of the day, I’m going with the Braves to win Game 3 of the NLDS. Not only do they have momentum from their bounce-back effort, but they’ve also played extremely well in Philadelphia this season.
Yes, the Phillies will have the hometown support, but it’ll only do so much against a World Series contender like the Braves.
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Prediction: ATL 5, PHI 4
Best Bet: ATL ML (+105 on Bovada)
Braves vs Phillies Game 3 Player Prop
Even though he’s had a slow start to the NLDS, I’m taking Marcell Ozuna to finish with more than 1.5 total bases as the best Braves vs. Phillies player prop.
Yes, Ozuna is hitless in six at-bats against the Phillies in this series, but all skids come to an end. It’s important to remember that the Braves outfielder is still batting .328 with 45 TBs in his last 15 games, finishing with more than 1.5 total bases 10 times.
Ozuna has also played well against Nola in his career, tallying 13 hits, four HRs, 26 TBs, and a .271/.300/.542 slash line against the Philadelphia ace. With the Braves needing all hands on deck to take the series lead, look for Ozuna to lead the charge.
Bet: Marcell Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases (+115 on Bovada)
More MLB Betting Content
How can I bet on ATL vs. PHI?
All of the top online sports betting sites will have Braves vs. Phillies Game 3 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for baseball betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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